penguin llc us sep 2012 (24 results)

Taschenbuch. Condition: Neu. Neuware -Ken Follett s magnificent historical epic beginsas five interrelated families move through the momentous dramas of the First World War, the Russian Revolution, and the struggle for women s suffrage. A thirteen-year-old Welsh boy enters a man s world in the mining pits. . . . An American law student rejected in love finds a surprising new career in Woodrow Wilson s White House. . . . A housekeeper for the aristocratic Fitzherberts takes a fateful step above her station, while Lady Maud Fitzherbert herself crosses deep into forbidden territory when she falls in love with a German spy. . . . And two orphaned Russian brothers embark on radically different paths when their plan to emigrate to America falls afoul of war, conscription, and revolution.From the dirt and danger of a coal mine to the glittering chandeliers of a palace, from the corridors of power to the bedrooms of the mighty, Fall of Giants takes us into the inextricably entangled fates of five families and into a century that we thought we knew, but that now will never seem the same again. . . . 960 pp. Englisch.

Taschenbuch. Condition: Neu. Neuware -Ken Follett s magnificent historical epic beginsas five interrelated families move through the momentous dramas of the First World War, the Russian Revolution, and the struggle for women s suffrage. A thirteen-year-old Welsh boy enters a man s world in the mining pits. . . . An American law student rejected in love finds a surprising new career in Woodrow Wilson s White House. . . . A housekeeper for the aristocratic Fitzherberts takes a fateful step above her station, while Lady Maud Fitzherbert herself crosses deep into forbidden territory when she falls in love with a German spy. . . . And two orphaned Russian brothers embark on radically different paths when their plan to emigrate to America falls afoul of war, conscription, and revolution.From the dirt and danger of a coal mine to the glittering chandeliers of a palace, from the corridors of power to the bedrooms of the mighty, Fall of Giants takes us into the inextricably entangled fates of five families and into a century that we thought we knew, but that now will never seem the same again. . . . 960 pp. Englisch.

Taschenbuch. Condition: Neu. Neuware -Ken Follett's magnificent new historical epic begins as five interrelated families move through the momentous dramas of the First World War, the Russian Revolution, and the struggle for women's suffrage. A thirteen-year-old Welsh boy enters a man's world in the mining pits. . . . An American law student rejected in love finds a surprising new career in Woodrow Wilson's White House. . . . A housekeeper for the aristocratic Fitzherberts takes a fateful step above her station, while Lady Maud Fitzherbert herself crosses deep into forbidden territory when she falls in love with a German spy. . . . And two orphaned Russian brothers embark on radically different paths when their plan to emigrate to America falls afoul of war, conscription, and revolution. From the dirt and danger of a coal mine to the glittering chandeliers of a palace, from the corridors of power to the bedrooms of the mighty, Fall of Giants takes us into the inextricably entangled fates of five families-and into a century that we thought we knew, but that now will never seem the same again. . . . Look out for Ken's newest book, A Column of Fire, available now.

Taschenbuch. Condition: Neu. Neuware - Not gonna lie, this is probably the coolest journal you ll ever see. . . .Wreck This Journalis here to inspire you. BuzzfeedThe internationally bestselling phenomenon with more than 10 million copies sold and an excellent holiday gift!Paint, poke, create, destroy, and wreck to create a journal as unique as you areFor anyone who's ever had trouble starting, keeping, or finishing a journal or sketchbook comes this expanded edition ofWreck This Journal,a subversive illustrated book that challenges readers to muster up their best mistake- and mess-making abilities to fill the pages of the book or destroy them.Through a series of creative and quirky prompts, acclaimed guerilla artist Keri Smith encourages journalers to engage in destructive acts poking holes through pages, adding photos and defacing them, painting pages with coffee, coloring outside the lines, and more in order to experience the true creative process. With Smith's unique sensibility, readers are introduced to a new way of art- and journal-making, discovering novel ways to escape the fear of the blank page and fully engage in the creative process.To create is to destroy. Happy wrecking! 224 pp. Englisch.

Taschenbuch. Condition: Neu. Neuware - Not gonna lie, this is probably the coolest journal you ll ever see. . . .Wreck This Journalis here to inspire you. BuzzfeedThe internationally bestselling phenomenon with more than 10 million copies sold and an excellent holiday gift!Paint, poke, create, destroy, and wreck to create a journal as unique as you areFor anyone who's ever had trouble starting, keeping, or finishing a journal or sketchbook comes this expanded edition ofWreck This Journal,a subversive illustrated book that challenges readers to muster up their best mistake- and mess-making abilities to fill the pages of the book or destroy them.Through a series of creative and quirky prompts, acclaimed guerilla artist Keri Smith encourages journalers to engage in destructive acts poking holes through pages, adding photos and defacing them, painting pages with coffee, coloring outside the lines, and more in order to experience the true creative process. With Smith's unique sensibility, readers are introduced to a new way of art- and journal-making, discovering novel ways to escape the fear of the blank page and fully engage in the creative process.To create is to destroy. Happy wrecking! 224 pp. Englisch.

Taschenbuch. Condition: Neu. Neuware - If I could give each of you a graduation present, it would be this the most inspiring book I've ever read.' Bill Gates A provocative history of violence from the New York Times bestselling author of The Stuff of Thought, The Blank Slate, and Enlightenment Now.Believe it or not, today we may be living in the most peaceful moment in our species' existence. In his gripping and controversial new work, New York Times bestselling author Steven Pinker shows that despite the ceaseless news about war, crime, and terrorism, violence has actually been in decline over long stretches of history. Exploding myths about humankind's inherent violence and the curse of modernity, this ambitious book continues Pinker's exploration of the essence of human nature, mixing psychology and history to provide a remarkable picture of an increasingly enlightened world. 802 pp. Englisch.

Taschenbuch. Condition: Neu. Neuware - If I could give each of you a graduation present, it would be this the most inspiring book I've ever read.' Bill Gates A provocative history of violence from the New York Times bestselling author of The Stuff of Thought, The Blank Slate, and Enlightenment Now.Believe it or not, today we may be living in the most peaceful moment in our species' existence. In his gripping and controversial new work, New York Times bestselling author Steven Pinker shows that despite the ceaseless news about war, crime, and terrorism, violence has actually been in decline over long stretches of history. Exploding myths about humankind's inherent violence and the curse of modernity, this ambitious book continues Pinker's exploration of the essence of human nature, mixing psychology and history to provide a remarkable picture of an increasingly enlightened world. 802 pp. Englisch.

Taschenbuch. Condition: Neu. Neuware -'Not gonna lie, this is probably the coolest journal you'll ever see. . . . Wreck This Journal is here to inspire you.' -BuzzfeedThe internationally bestselling phenomenon with more than 10 million copies sold-and an excellent holiday gift! Paint, poke, create, destroy, and wreck-to create a journal as unique as you areFor anyone who's ever had trouble starting, keeping, or finishing a journal or sketchbook comes this expanded edition of Wreck This Journal, a subversive illustrated book that challenges readers to muster up their best mistake- and mess-making abilities to fill the pages of the book-or destroy them.Through a series of creative and quirky prompts, acclaimed guerilla artist Keri Smith encourages journalers to engage in destructive acts-poking holes through pages, adding photos and defacing them, painting pages with coffee, coloring outside the lines, and more-in order to experience the true creative process. With Smith's unique sensibility, readers are introduced to a new way of art- and journal-making, discovering novel ways to escape the fear of the blank page and fully engage in the creative process.To create is to destroy. Happy wrecking!.

Taschenbuch. Condition: Neu. Neuware -In 1971, President Nixon imposed national price controls and took the United States off the gold standard, an extreme measure intended to end an ongoing currency war that had destroyed faith in the U.S. dollar. Today we are engaged in a new currency war, and this time the consequences will be far worse than those that confronted Nixon.Currency wars are one of the most destructive and feared outcomes in international economics. At best, they offer the sorry spectacle of countries' stealing growth from their trading partners. At worst, they degenerate into sequential bouts of inflation, recession, retaliation, and sometimes actual violence. Left unchecked, the next currency war could lead to a crisis worse than the panic of 2008.Currency wars have happened before-twice in the last century alone-and they always end badly. Time and again, paper currencies have collapsed, assets have been frozen, gold has been confiscated, and capital controls have been imposed. And the next crash is overdue. Recent headlines about the debasement of the dollar, bailouts in Greece and Ireland, and Chinese currency manipulation are all indicators of the growing conflict.As James Rickards argues in Currency Wars, this is more than just a concern for economists and investors. The United States is facing serious threats to its national security, from clandestine gold purchases by China to the hidden agendas of sovereign wealth funds. Greater than any single threat is the very real danger of the collapse of the dollar itself.Baffling to many observers is the rank failure of economists to foresee or prevent the economic catastrophes of recent years. Not only have their theories failed to prevent calamity, they are making the currency wars worse. The U. S. Federal Reserve has engaged in the greatest gamble in the history of finance, a sustained effort to stimulate the economy by printing money on a trillion-dollar scale. Its solutions present hidden new dangers while resolving none of the current dilemmas.While the outcome of the new currency war is not yet certain, some version of the worst-case scenario is almost inevitable if U.S. and world economic leaders fail to learn from the mistakes of their predecessors. Rickards untangles the web of failed paradigms, wishful thinking, and arrogance driving current public policy and points the way toward a more informed and effective course of action. 320 pp. Englisch.

Taschenbuch. Condition: Neu. Neuware -In 1971, President Nixon imposed national price controls and took the United States off the gold standard, an extreme measure intended to end an ongoing currency war that had destroyed faith in the U.S. dollar. Today we are engaged in a new currency war, and this time the consequences will be far worse than those that confronted Nixon.Currency wars are one of the most destructive and feared outcomes in international economics. At best, they offer the sorry spectacle of countries' stealing growth from their trading partners. At worst, they degenerate into sequential bouts of inflation, recession, retaliation, and sometimes actual violence. Left unchecked, the next currency war could lead to a crisis worse than the panic of 2008.Currency wars have happened before-twice in the last century alone-and they always end badly. Time and again, paper currencies have collapsed, assets have been frozen, gold has been confiscated, and capital controls have been imposed. And the next crash is overdue. Recent headlines about the debasement of the dollar, bailouts in Greece and Ireland, and Chinese currency manipulation are all indicators of the growing conflict.As James Rickards argues in Currency Wars, this is more than just a concern for economists and investors. The United States is facing serious threats to its national security, from clandestine gold purchases by China to the hidden agendas of sovereign wealth funds. Greater than any single threat is the very real danger of the collapse of the dollar itself.Baffling to many observers is the rank failure of economists to foresee or prevent the economic catastrophes of recent years. Not only have their theories failed to prevent calamity, they are making the currency wars worse. The U. S. Federal Reserve has engaged in the greatest gamble in the history of finance, a sustained effort to stimulate the economy by printing money on a trillion-dollar scale. Its solutions present hidden new dangers while resolving none of the current dilemmas.While the outcome of the new currency war is not yet certain, some version of the worst-case scenario is almost inevitable if U.S. and world economic leaders fail to learn from the mistakes of their predecessors. Rickards untangles the web of failed paradigms, wishful thinking, and arrogance driving current public policy and points the way toward a more informed and effective course of action. 320 pp. Englisch.

Taschenbuch. Condition: Neu. Neuware -'If I could give each of you a graduation present, it would be this-the most inspiring book I've ever read.'Bill Gates (May, 2017)A provocative history of violence-from the New York Times bestselling author of The Stuff of Thought, The Blank Slate, and Enlightenment Now.

Taschenbuch. Condition: Neu. Neuware - Ken Follett s magnificent historical epic beginsas five interrelated families move through the momentous dramas of the First World War, the Russian Revolution, and the struggle for women s suffrage. A thirteen-year-old Welsh boy enters a man s world in the mining pits. . . . An American law student rejected in love finds a surprising new career in Woodrow Wilson s White House. . . . A housekeeper for the aristocratic Fitzherberts takes a fateful step above her station, while Lady Maud Fitzherbert herself crosses deep into forbidden territory when she falls in love with a German spy. . . . And two orphaned Russian brothers embark on radically different paths when their plan to emigrate to America falls afoul of war, conscription, and revolution.From the dirt and danger of a coal mine to the glittering chandeliers of a palace, from the corridors of power to the bedrooms of the mighty, Fall of Giants takes us into the inextricably entangled fates of five families and into a century that we thought we knew, but that now will never seem the same again. . . . 960 pp. Englisch.

Taschenbuch. Condition: Neu. Neuware -In 1971, President Nixon imposed national price controls and took the United States off the gold standard, an extreme measure intended to end an ongoing currency war that had destroyed faith in the U.S. dollar. Today we are engaged in a new currency war, and this time the consequences will be far worse than those that confronted Nixon.

Taschenbuch. Condition: Neu. Neuware - A sprawling story richly textured with original material, quirky details and amusing anecdotes . . . Wall Street Journal It is a cause for celebration that Yergin has returned with his perspective on a very different landscape . . . [I]t is impossible to think of a better introduction to the essentials of energy in the 21st century.The Questis . . . the definitive guide to how we got here. The Financial TimesThis long-awaited successor to Daniel Yergin s Pulitzer Prize-winningThe Prizeprovides an essential, overarching narrative of global energy, the principal engine of geopolitical and economic changeA master storyteller as well as a leading energy expert, Daniel Yergin continues the riveting story begun in his Pulitzer Prize winning book, The Prize. In The Quest, Yergin shows us how energy is an engine of global political and economic change and conflict, in a story that spans the energies on which our civilization has been built and the new energies that are competing to replace them. The Quest tells the inside stories, tackles the tough questions, and reveals surprising insights about coal, electricity, and natural gas. He explains how climate change became a great issue and leads readers through the rebirth of renewable energies, energy independence, and the return of the electric car. Epic in scope and never more timely, The Quest vividly reveals the decisions, technologies, and individuals that are shaping our future. 864 pp. Englisch.

Taschenbuch. Condition: Neu. Neuware - A sprawling story richly textured with original material, quirky details and amusing anecdotes . . . Wall Street Journal It is a cause for celebration that Yergin has returned with his perspective on a very different landscape . . . [I]t is impossible to think of a better introduction to the essentials of energy in the 21st century.The Questis . . . the definitive guide to how we got here. The Financial TimesThis long-awaited successor to Daniel Yergin s Pulitzer Prize-winningThe Prizeprovides an essential, overarching narrative of global energy, the principal engine of geopolitical and economic changeA master storyteller as well as a leading energy expert, Daniel Yergin continues the riveting story begun in his Pulitzer Prize winning book, The Prize. In The Quest, Yergin shows us how energy is an engine of global political and economic change and conflict, in a story that spans the energies on which our civilization has been built and the new energies that are competing to replace them. The Quest tells the inside stories, tackles the tough questions, and reveals surprising insights about coal, electricity, and natural gas. He explains how climate change became a great issue and leads readers through the rebirth of renewable energies, energy independence, and the return of the electric car. Epic in scope and never more timely, The Quest vividly reveals the decisions, technologies, and individuals that are shaping our future. 864 pp. Englisch.

Taschenbuch. Condition: Neu. Neuware - Not gonna lie, this is probably the coolest journal you ll ever see. . . .Wreck This Journalis here to inspire you. BuzzfeedThe internationally bestselling phenomenon with more than 10 million copies sold and an excellent holiday gift!Paint, poke, create, destroy, and wreck to create a journal as unique as you areFor anyone who's ever had trouble starting, keeping, or finishing a journal or sketchbook comes this expanded edition ofWreck This Journal,a subversive illustrated book that challenges readers to muster up their best mistake- and mess-making abilities to fill the pages of the book or destroy them.Through a series of creative and quirky prompts, acclaimed guerilla artist Keri Smith encourages journalers to engage in destructive acts poking holes through pages, adding photos and defacing them, painting pages with coffee, coloring outside the lines, and more in order to experience the true creative process. With Smith's unique sensibility, readers are introduced to a new way of art- and journal-making, discovering novel ways to escape the fear of the blank page and fully engage in the creative process.To create is to destroy. Happy wrecking!.

Taschenbuch. Condition: Neu. Neuware -This long-awaited successor to Daniel Yergin's Pulitzer Prize-winning The Prize provides an essential, overarching narrative of global energy, the principal engine of geopolitical and economic changeA master storyteller as well as a leading energy expert, Daniel Yergin continues the riveting story begun in his Pulitzer Prize-winning book, The Prize. In The Quest, Yergin shows us how energy is an engine of global political and economic change and conflict, in a story that spans the energies on which our civilization has been built and the new energies that are competing to replace them. The Quest tells the inside stories, tackles the tough questions, and reveals surprising insights about coal, electricity, and natural gas. He explains how climate change became a great issue and leads readers through the rebirth of renewable energies, energy independence, and the return of the electric car. Epic in scope and never more timely, The Quest vividly reveals the decisions, technologies, and individuals that are shaping our future.

Taschenbuch. Condition: Neu. Neuware - If I could give each of you a graduation present, it would be this the most inspiring book I've ever read.' Bill Gates A provocative history of violence from the New York Times bestselling author of The Stuff of Thought, The Blank Slate, and Enlightenment Now.Believe it or not, today we may be living in the most peaceful moment in our species' existence. In his gripping and controversial new work, New York Times bestselling author Steven Pinker shows that despite the ceaseless news about war, crime, and terrorism, violence has actually been in decline over long stretches of history. Exploding myths about humankind's inherent violence and the curse of modernity, this ambitious book continues Pinker's exploration of the essence of human nature, mixing psychology and history to provide a remarkable picture of an increasingly enlightened world.

Buch. Condition: Neu. Neuware -UPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER'One of the more momentous books of the decade.'-The New York Times Book ReviewNate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger-all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the 'prediction paradox': The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success Are they good-or just lucky What patterns have they unraveled And are their forecasts really right He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science.Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read. 544 pp. Englisch.

Buch. Condition: Neu. Neuware -UPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER'One of the more momentous books of the decade.'-The New York Times Book ReviewNate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger-all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the 'prediction paradox': The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success Are they good-or just lucky What patterns have they unraveled And are their forecasts really right He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science.Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read. 544 pp. Englisch.

Taschenbuch. Condition: Neu. Neuware - In 1971, President Nixon imposed national price controls and took the United States off the gold standard, an extreme measure intended to end an ongoing currency war that had destroyed faith in the U.S. dollar. Today we are engaged in a new currency war, and this time the consequences will be far worse than those that confronted Nixon.Currency wars are one of the most destructive and feared outcomes in international economics. At best, they offer the sorry spectacle of countries' stealing growth from their trading partners. At worst, they degenerate into sequential bouts of inflation, recession, retaliation, and sometimes actual violence. Left unchecked, the next currency war could lead to a crisis worse than the panic of 2008.Currency wars have happened before-twice in the last century alone-and they always end badly. Time and again, paper currencies have collapsed, assets have been frozen, gold has been confiscated, and capital controls have been imposed. And the next crash is overdue. Recent headlines about the debasement of the dollar, bailouts in Greece and Ireland, and Chinese currency manipulation are all indicators of the growing conflict.As James Rickards argues in Currency Wars, this is more than just a concern for economists and investors. The United States is facing serious threats to its national security, from clandestine gold purchases by China to the hidden agendas of sovereign wealth funds. Greater than any single threat is the very real danger of the collapse of the dollar itself.Baffling to many observers is the rank failure of economists to foresee or prevent the economic catastrophes of recent years. Not only have their theories failed to prevent calamity, they are making the currency wars worse. The U. S. Federal Reserve has engaged in the greatest gamble in the history of finance, a sustained effort to stimulate the economy by printing money on a trillion-dollar scale. Its solutions present hidden new dangers while resolving none of the current dilemmas.While the outcome of the new currency war is not yet certain, some version of the worst-case scenario is almost inevitable if U.S. and world economic leaders fail to learn from the mistakes of their predecessors. Rickards untangles the web of failed paradigms, wishful thinking, and arrogance driving current public policy and points the way toward a more informed and effective course of action.

Buch. Condition: Neu. Neuware -UPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER'One of the more momentous books of the decade.'-The New York Times Book ReviewNate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger-all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the 'prediction paradox': The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success Are they good-or just lucky What patterns have they unraveled And are their forecasts really right He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science.Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.

Taschenbuch. Condition: Neu. Neuware - A sprawling story richly textured with original material, quirky details and amusing anecdotes . . . Wall Street Journal It is a cause for celebration that Yergin has returned with his perspective on a very different landscape . . . [I]t is impossible to think of a better introduction to the essentials of energy in the 21st century.The Questis . . . the definitive guide to how we got here. The Financial TimesThis long-awaited successor to Daniel Yergin s Pulitzer Prize-winningThe Prizeprovides an essential, overarching narrative of global energy, the principal engine of geopolitical and economic changeA master storyteller as well as a leading energy expert, Daniel Yergin continues the riveting story begun in his Pulitzer Prize winning book, The Prize. In The Quest, Yergin shows us how energy is an engine of global political and economic change and conflict, in a story that spans the energies on which our civilization has been built and the new energies that are competing to replace them. The Quest tells the inside stories, tackles the tough questions, and reveals surprising insights about coal, electricity, and natural gas. He explains how climate change became a great issue and leads readers through the rebirth of renewable energies, energy independence, and the return of the electric car. Epic in scope and never more timely, The Quest vividly reveals the decisions, technologies, and individuals that are shaping our future.

Buch. Condition: Neu. Neuware - UPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER'One of the more momentous books of the decade.'-The New York Times Book ReviewNate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger-all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the 'prediction paradox': The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success Are they good-or just lucky What patterns have they unraveled And are their forecasts really right He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science.Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.