Deflation -- a post-inflation economic environment that few of today's investors have experienced or understand -- could be just around the corner. In Deflation, A. Gary Shilling -- today's most influential contrarian economist and a twice-monthly columnist for Forbes -- tells investors how to recognize telltale signs of deflation. and protect their assets against a force that could knock half the value from today's bull market.
Investors at all levels will benefit from Dr. Shilling's impeccable research and lively, easy-to-understand writing style. His numerous charts and graphs give the reader:
-- 13 investing strategies for profiting through deflationary times
-- Low-risk bond investment strategies -- to sustain equity-style total returns
-- Industry sectors positioned to outperform the market
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Most people associate deflation with the 1930s: depression, unemployment, and a spectacular stock market crash. But A. Gary Shilling doesn't think that deflation is all that bad--in fact, he says, if you're prepared, deflation can be a good thing. In Deflation, Shilling outlines why he thinks we're about to enter a prolonged period of deflation and offers advice for businesses and investors on how best to position themselves and their finances and cope with the specter of falling prices.
Shilling sees several forces feeding the trend toward deflation, including the end of the cold war, reduced government spending, growing surpluses, the widespread adoption of technology, the emergence of the Internet, deregulation, and the recent Asian contagion. He also believes that the stock market is due for a severe correction that "would destroy enough individual wealth to chase consumers out of spending and into a saving spree," thereby slowing demand for goods and services and encouraging deflation even more.
Among the investments that Shilling recommends for deflationary times are treasury coupons and zero-coupon bonds, utilities, and U.S. stocks (after the correction, of course). Given Alan Greenspan's maniacal focus on fighting inflation, it might be difficult to swallow Shilling's deflationary forecast. Nevertheless, Shilling has done his homework, and it shows: he builds a case that's both convincing and easy to read. No one knows for sure what our economic future holds, but any open-minded investor would be prudent to hear Shilling out. --Harry C. EdwardsFrom the Back Cover:
"In the early 1980s, Shilling was one of the first to raise the possibility of disinflation...At the time, he was considered extreme, but that's just what happened. Now he's considered extreme once again. We'll see..."--Terry Savage, Personal Finance Columnist, Chicago Sun-Times.
"You have to listen to Shilling, who is a consulting economist and columnist for Forbes. He was the first of the prominent U.S. economists to see the winding down of inflation...In 1973, he was almost alone in forecasting a deep, worldwide recession...In early 1988, he predicted that the 1990s in Japan would be like the 1930s in the United States--at the time, an astonishing forecast. It turned out to be right..."--Don Bauder, Financial Columnist, San Diego Union-Tribune.
"After tracking Gary Shilling for over a quarter century, I do not know of any economist who scored more bull's eyes on major turns in the economy--which ultimately affected the stock market. Ignore him if you will, and lament the ravages of deflation later."--Charles Allmon, President, Growth Stock Outlook.
"There are lots of economists making predictions these days about the future course of the global economy, but few are doing the research to get it right. With a clear sense of how the prospect of deflation is drmatically changing the economic environment for consumers, companies, and countries, Gary Shilling stresses the importance of growth."--Jerry Jasinowski, President, National Association of Manufacturers.
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