Top Marketplace offers for ISBN

9780141034591

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Not the book you're looking for? Search for all books with this author and title
9780141034591: The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

A condensed guide to life from the bestselling author of "The Black Swan", Nassim Nicholas Taleb's "The Bed of Procrustes" is an invaluable collection of aphorisms navigate the modern world. Why are we so often unwilling to accept that life is unpredictable? In this brilliant book Nassim Nicholas Taleb distils his idiosyncratic wisdom to demolish our illusions, contrasting the classical values of courage, elegance and erudition against modern philistinism and phoniness. Only by accepting what we don't know, he shows, can we see the world as it really is. "Happily provocative ...blistering ...his observations concern superiority, wealth, suckerdom, academia, modernity, technology and the all-purpose, ignorant "they" ...very quotable". ("The New York Times"). "A master philosopher". ("The Times"). "Taleb's crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems". ("Financial Times"). "Opinionated and witty...It showcases his wit and learning, and provides ways to fillet his enemies". ("Independent on Sunday"). Nassim Nicholas Taleb spends most of his time as a flaneur, meditating in cafes across the planet. A former trader, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University. He is the author of "Fooled by Randomness" and "The Black Swan", an international bestseller which has become an intellectual, social, and cultural touchstone.

"synopsis" may belong to another edition of this title.

Review:

Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, The Black Swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. Engaging and enlightening, The Black Swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that Chris Anderson calls, "a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature." See Anderson's entire guest review below.

Guest Reviewer: Chris Anderson

Chris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More.

Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it.

Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but itís something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt.

The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the "millionaire next door," when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation). Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia.

Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan," while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of "Extremistan."

In full disclosure, I'm a long admirer of Taleb's work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book. I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. --Chris Anderson


About the Author:

Nassim Nicholas Taleb spends most of his time as a flaneur, meditating in cafes across the planet. A former trader, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University. His books Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan have been published in thirty-one languages.

"About this title" may belong to another edition of this title.

Buy New View Book
List Price: US$
US$ 11.79

Convert Currency

Add to Basket

Shipping: FREE
From United Kingdom to U.S.A.

Destination, Rates & Speeds

Top Search Results from the AbeBooks Marketplace

1.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb Author
Published by Penguin Books Ltd, United Kingdom (2008)
ISBN 10: 0141034599 ISBN 13: 9780141034591
New Paperback Quantity Available: 10
Seller
The Book Depository
(London, United Kingdom)
Rating
[?]

Book Description Penguin Books Ltd, United Kingdom, 2008. Paperback. Book Condition: New. Trade Paperback.. 208 x 128 mm. Language: English Brand New Book. Nassim Nicholas Taleb s phenomenal international bestseller The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty. What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great s lovers tell us about probability? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they re impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. Taleb is a bouncy and even exhilarating guide.I came to relish what he said, and even develop a sneaking affection for him as a person. (Will Self, Independent on Sunday). He leaps like some superhero of the mind. (Boyd Tonkin, Independent). Funny, quirky and thought-provoking.confirms his status as a guru for every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros and aspirant despot. (John Cornwell, Sunday Times). Idiosyncratically brilliant. (Niall Ferguson, Sunday Telegraph). Great fun.brash, stubborn, entertaining, opinionated, curious, cajoling. (Stephen J. Dubner, Co-Author of Freakonomics). Bookseller Inventory # APG9780141034591

More Information About This Seller | Ask Bookseller a Question

Buy New
US$ 11.79
Convert Currency

Add to Basket

Shipping: FREE
From United Kingdom to U.S.A.
Destination, Rates & Speeds

2.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb Author
Published by Penguin (2008)
ISBN 10: 0141034599 ISBN 13: 9780141034591
New Softcover Quantity Available: 1
Seller
Book Deals
(Lewiston, NY, U.S.A.)
Rating
[?]

Book Description Penguin, 2008. Book Condition: New. Brand New, Unread Copy in Perfect Condition. A+ Customer Service!. Bookseller Inventory # ABE_book_new_0141034599

More Information About This Seller | Ask Bookseller a Question

Buy New
US$ 12.63
Convert Currency

Add to Basket

Shipping: FREE
Within U.S.A.
Destination, Rates & Speeds

3.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb Author
Published by Penguin Books Ltd, United Kingdom (2008)
ISBN 10: 0141034599 ISBN 13: 9780141034591
New Paperback Quantity Available: 10
Seller
The Book Depository US
(London, United Kingdom)
Rating
[?]

Book Description Penguin Books Ltd, United Kingdom, 2008. Paperback. Book Condition: New. Trade Paperback.. 208 x 128 mm. Language: English Brand New Book. Nassim Nicholas Taleb s phenomenal international bestseller The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty. What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great s lovers tell us about probability? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they re impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. Taleb is a bouncy and even exhilarating guide.I came to relish what he said, and even develop a sneaking affection for him as a person. (Will Self, Independent on Sunday). He leaps like some superhero of the mind. (Boyd Tonkin, Independent). Funny, quirky and thought-provoking.confirms his status as a guru for every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros and aspirant despot. (John Cornwell, Sunday Times). Idiosyncratically brilliant. (Niall Ferguson, Sunday Telegraph). Great fun.brash, stubborn, entertaining, opinionated, curious, cajoling. (Stephen J. Dubner, Co-Author of Freakonomics). Bookseller Inventory # APG9780141034591

More Information About This Seller | Ask Bookseller a Question

Buy New
US$ 12.65
Convert Currency

Add to Basket

Shipping: FREE
From United Kingdom to U.S.A.
Destination, Rates & Speeds

4.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb Author
Published by Penguin
ISBN 10: 0141034599 ISBN 13: 9780141034591
New PAPERBACK Quantity Available: 4
Seller
IBestBargains, LLC
(Houston, TX, U.S.A.)
Rating
[?]

Book Description Penguin. PAPERBACK. Book Condition: New. 0141034599 Brand New Book in Perfect Condition.Fast Shipping with tracking number. Bookseller Inventory # NVDA-MRSH-0422

More Information About This Seller | Ask Bookseller a Question

Buy New
US$ 8.69
Convert Currency

Add to Basket

Shipping: US$ 3.99
Within U.S.A.
Destination, Rates & Speeds
International Edition
International Edition

5.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb Author
Published by Penguin
ISBN 10: 0141034599 ISBN 13: 9780141034591
New Softcover Quantity Available: > 20
International Edition
Seller
Sunshine Book Store
(Wilmington, DE, U.S.A.)
Rating
[?]

Book Description Penguin. Book Condition: New. 0141034599 International Edition, Brand New, Paperback Delivery within 6-14 business days, Similar Contents as U.S Edition, ISBN and Cover design may differ, printed in Black & White. Choose Expedited shipping for delivery within 4-7 business days.We do not ship to PO Box, APO , FPO Address. In some instances, subjects such as Management, Accounting, Finance may have different end chapter case studies and exercises. International Edition Textbooks may bear a label "Not for sale in the U.S. or Canada" and "Content may different from U.S. Edition" - printed only to discourage U.S. students from obtaining an affordable copy. The U.S. Supreme Court has asserted your right to purchase international editions, and ruled on this issue. Access code/CD is not provided with these editions , unless specified.We may ship the books from multiple warehouses across the globe, including India depending upon the availability of inventory storage. Customer satisfaction guaranteed. Bookseller Inventory # IS9780141034591

More Information About This Seller | Ask Bookseller a Question

Buy New
US$ 13.01
Convert Currency

Add to Basket

Shipping: FREE
Within U.S.A.
Destination, Rates & Speeds
International Edition
International Edition

6.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb Author
ISBN 10: 0141034599 ISBN 13: 9780141034591
New Softcover Quantity Available: 20
International Edition
Seller
US_Superfast_Bookstore
(New Castle, DE, U.S.A.)
Rating
[?]

Book Description Book Condition: New. International Edition Brand New Paperback Same Title Author and Edition as listed. ISBN and Cover design differs. Similar Contents as U.S Edition. Standard Delivery within 6-14 business days ACROSS THE GLOBE. We can ship to PO Box address in US. International Edition Textbooks may bear a label "Not for sale in the U.S. or Canada" or "For sale in Asia only" or similar restrictions- printed only to discourage students from obtaining an affordable copy. US Court has asserted your right to buy and use International edition. Access code/CD may not provided with these editions. We may ship the books from multiple warehouses across the globe including Asia depending upon the availability of inventory. Printed in English. Customer satisfaction guaranteed. Bookseller Inventory # IN16_9780141034591

More Information About This Seller | Ask Bookseller a Question

Buy New
US$ 10.59
Convert Currency

Add to Basket

Shipping: US$ 2.65
Within U.S.A.
Destination, Rates & Speeds

7.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb Author
Published by Penguin
ISBN 10: 0141034599 ISBN 13: 9780141034591
New PAPERBACK Quantity Available: 5
Seller
SBA
(New York, NY, U.S.A.)
Rating
[?]

Book Description Penguin. PAPERBACK. Book Condition: New. 0141034599 Brand New Ship Promptly.Please allow 8 to 14 Business Days to deliver you the book.We Ship via Dhl,FedEx,Ups,USPS.Customer Satisfaction Guaranteed. Bookseller Inventory. Bookseller Inventory # FIC$KAPP$H2277

More Information About This Seller | Ask Bookseller a Question

Buy New
US$ 9.19
Convert Currency

Add to Basket

Shipping: US$ 4.50
Within U.S.A.
Destination, Rates & Speeds

8.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb Author
ISBN 10: 0141034599 ISBN 13: 9780141034591
New Paperback Quantity Available: 1
Seller
Grand Eagle Retail
(Wilmington, DE, U.S.A.)
Rating
[?]

Book Description 2008. Paperback. Book Condition: New. 129mm x 198mm x 27mm. Paperback. Nassim Nicholas Taleb's phenomenal international bestseller The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of un.Shipping may be from multiple locations in the US or from the UK, depending on stock availability. 480 pages. 0.350. Bookseller Inventory # 9780141034591

More Information About This Seller | Ask Bookseller a Question

Buy New
US$ 14.22
Convert Currency

Add to Basket

Shipping: FREE
Within U.S.A.
Destination, Rates & Speeds

9.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb Author
Published by Penguin 2011-07-07 (2011)
ISBN 10: 0141034599 ISBN 13: 9780141034591
New Quantity Available: 2
Seller
Chiron Media
(Wallingford, United Kingdom)
Rating
[?]

Book Description Penguin 2011-07-07, 2011. Book Condition: New. Brand new book, sourced directly from publisher. Dispatch time is 24-48 hours from our warehouse. Book will be sent in robust, secure packaging to ensure it reaches you securely. Bookseller Inventory # NU-BER-00025920

More Information About This Seller | Ask Bookseller a Question

Buy New
US$ 9.94
Convert Currency

Add to Basket

Shipping: US$ 4.38
From United Kingdom to U.S.A.
Destination, Rates & Speeds

10.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb Author
Published by Penguin Books
ISBN 10: 0141034599 ISBN 13: 9780141034591
New Quantity Available: 4
Seller
Majestic Books
(London, ,, United Kingdom)
Rating
[?]

Book Description Penguin Books. Book Condition: New. pp. xxxiv + 444 + [ii] Illus. Bookseller Inventory # 6424678

More Information About This Seller | Ask Bookseller a Question

Buy New
US$ 6.53
Convert Currency

Add to Basket

Shipping: US$ 8.05
From United Kingdom to U.S.A.
Destination, Rates & Speeds

There are more copies of this book

View all search results for this book