9780849310874

Book Description: CRC Press, 2001. Hardback. Book Condition: New. New book. Shipped from UK. Bookseller Inventory # F9-9780849310874

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Book Description: CRC Press, 2001. Hardcover. Book Condition: New. New unread book. May have light shelf wear. Bookseller Inventory # AC120313282

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Book Description: Taylor and Francis(CRC Press), 2001. Hardback. Book Condition: New. 9.252 by 6.142 inches. (328 pages) This item is printed on demand. Please allow up to 10 days extra for printing & delivery. Experts, despite their importance and vaue, can be doube-edged swords. They can make vauabe contributions from their deep base of knowedge, but those contributions may aso contain their own biases and pet theories. Therefore, seecting experts, eiciting their opinions, and aggregating their opinions must be performed and handed carefuy, with fu recognition of the uncertainties inherent in those opinions. Eicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks iuminates those uncertainties and buids a foundation of phiosophy, background, methods, and guideines that heps its readers effectivey execute the eicitation process. Based on the first-hand experiences of the author, the book is fied with iustrations, exampes, case studies, and appications that demonstrate not ony the methods and successes of expert opinion eicitation, but aso its pitfas and faiures. Studies show that in the future, anaysts, engineers, and scientists wi need to sove ever more compex probems and reach decisions with imited resources. This wi ead to an increased reiance on the proper treatment of uncertainty and on the use of expert opinions. Eicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks wi hep prepare you to better understand knowedge and ignorance, to successfuy eicit expert opinions, to seect appropriate expressions of those opinions, and to use various methods to mode and aggregate opinions.Knowedge and Ignorance Information Abundance and Ignorance The Nature of Knowedge Cognition and Cognitive Science Time and its Asymmetry Defining Ignorance in the Context of Knowedge Exercise Probems Information-Based System Definition Introduction System Definition Modes Hierarchica Definitions of Systems Modes for Ignorance and Uncertainty Types Systems Compexity Exercise Probems Experts, Opinions, and Eicitation Methods Introduction Experts, and Expert Opinions Historica Background Scientific Heuristics Rationa Consensus Eicitation Methods Standards for Educationa and Psychoogica Testing Methods of Socia Research Focus Groups Exercise Probems Expressing and Modeing Expert Opinions Introduction Set Theory Monotone Measures Exercise Probems Consensus and Aggregating Expert Opinions Introduction Methods of Scoring of Expert Opinions Uncertainty Measures Combining Expert Opinions Exercise Probems Guidance on Expert-Opinion Eicitation Introduction and Terminoogy Cassification of Issues, Study Leves, Experts, and Process Outcomes Process Definition Need Identification for Expert-Opinion Eicitation Seection of Study Leve and Study Leader Seection of Peer Reviewers and Experts Identification, Seection, and Deveopment of Technica Issues Eicitation of Opinions Documentation and Communication Exercise Probems Appications of Expert-Opinion Eicitation Introduction Assessment of Occurrence Probabiities Economic Consequences of Foods References Indexes (Hardback). Bookseller Inventory # AG0849310873

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Book Description: CRC Press, 2001. Hardback. Book Condition: New. New book. Shipped from UK. Bookseller Inventory # F9-9780849310874

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Book Description: CRC PR INC 01/04/2012, 2012. Hardback. Book Condition: New. New print on demand book. Shipped from US. This item is printed on demand. Bookseller Inventory # IJ-9780849310874

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Book Description: CRC PR INC 01/05/2012, 2012. Hardback. Book Condition: New. New print on demand book. Shipped from US. This item is printed on demand. Bookseller Inventory # IO-9780849310874

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Book Description: Taylor & Francis Inc. Hardback. Book Condition: new. BRAND NEW PRINT ON DEMAND., Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks, Bilal M. Ayyub, Experts, despite their importance and value, can be double-edged swords. They can make valuable contributions from their deep base of knowledge, but those contributions may also contain their own biases and pet theories. Therefore, selecting experts, eliciting their opinions, and aggregating their opinions must be performed and handled carefully, with full recognition of the uncertainties inherent in those opinions.Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks illuminates those uncertainties and builds a foundation of philosophy, background, methods, and guidelines that helps its readers effectively execute the elicitation process. Based on the first-hand experiences of the author, the book is filled with illustrations, examples, case studies, and applications that demonstrate not only the methods and successes of expert opinion elicitation, but also its pitfalls and failures.Studies show that in the future, analysts, engineers, and scientists will need to solve ever more complex problems and reach decisions with limited resources. This will lead to an increased reliance on the proper treatment of uncertainty and on the use of expert opinions. Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks will help prepare you to better understand knowledge and ignorance, to successfully elicit expert opinions, to select appropriate expressions of those opinions, and to use various methods to model and aggregate opinions. Bookseller Inventory # B9780849310874

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Book Description: Taylor Francis Inc, United States, 2001. Hardback. Book Condition: New. 234 x 156 mm. Brand New Book with Free Worldwide Delivery ***** Print on Demand *****. Experts, despite their importance and value, can be double-edged swords. They can make valuable contributions from their deep base of knowledge, but those contributions may also contain their own biases and pet theories. Therefore, selecting experts, eliciting their opinions, and aggregating their opinions must be performed and handled carefully, with full recognition of the uncertainties inherent in those opinions.Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks illuminates those uncertainties and builds a foundation of philosophy, background, methods, and guidelines that helps its readers effectively execute the elicitation process. Based on the first-hand experiences of the author, the book is filled with illustrations, examples, case studies, and applications that demonstrate not only the methods and successes of expert opinion elicitation, but also its pitfalls and failures.Studies show that in the future, analysts, engineers, and scientists will need to solve ever more complex problems and reach decisions with limited resources. This will lead to an increased reliance on the proper treatment of uncertainty and on the use of expert opinions.Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks will help prepare you to better understand knowledge and ignorance, to successfully elicit expert opinions, to select appropriate expressions of those opinions, and to use various methods to model and aggregate opinions. Bookseller Inventory # APC9780849310874

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Book Description: CRC Pr I Llc, 2001. Hardcover. Book Condition: Brand New. 1st edition. 256 pages. 9.50x6.25x1.00 inches. In Stock. Bookseller Inventory # __0849310873

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Book Description: CRC Press, 2012. Hardcover. Book Condition: New. 9.62 by 6 inches. (00328 pages) This item is printed on demand. Please allow up to 10 days extra for printing & delivery. {Publisher's Publication Date = 2001-06-27 00:00:00} [ships from USA takes 8-14 days to Europe] illustrated Lang=English accessory:NO ACCESSORY (Hardcover ). Bookseller Inventory # AF0849310873

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