9781400063512

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

ISBN 10: 1400063515 / 1-4000-6351-5
ISBN 13: 9781400063512
Publisher: Random House Inc
Publication Date: 2007
Binding: Hardcover
Editorial Reviews:
Synopsis:
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible."For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book--itself a black swan.

Review:
"[A] provocative macro-trend tome...."

Time, 05/21/2007

Review:
"Taleb's critique of our current pretensions to knowledge, and of our unwarranted faith in our understanding of things like risk and change, is both rigorous and convincing. And THE BLACK SWAN is a terrifically engaging book, sophisticated without being inaccessible."

James Surowiecki, Bookforum, Summer 2007

 

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: Search Results

1.
The Black Swan: Second Edition (ISBN: 9781400063512)
Taleb, Nassim Nicholas
ISBN 10: 1400063515
ISBN 13: 9781400063512
Bookseller: Paperbackshop-US (Secaucus, NJ, U.S.A.)
Bookseller Rating: 5-star rating
Quantity Available: > 20

Book Description: Random House Publishing Group, 2007. Hardback. Book Condition: New. New Book. Shipped from US. Bookseller Inventory # VR-9781400063512

Bookseller & Payment Information | More Books from this Seller | Ask Bookseller a Question

Add Book to Shopping Basket
Price: US$ 16.67
Convert Currency
Shipping: US$ 3.99
Within U.S.A.
2.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Format: Hardcover (ISBN: 1400063515 / 1-4000-6351-5)
Taleb, Nassim Nicholas
ISBN 10: 1400063515
ISBN 13: 9781400063512
Bookseller: INDOO (Avenel, NJ, U.S.A.)
Bookseller Rating: 4-star rating
Quantity Available: > 20

Book Description: Random House. Book Condition: New. Brand New. Bookseller Inventory # 1400063515

Bookseller & Payment Information | More Books from this Seller | Ask Bookseller a Question

Add Book to Shopping Basket
Price: US$ 17.29
Convert Currency
Shipping: US$ 3.50
Within U.S.A.
3.
The Black Swan [Hardcover] (ISBN: 1400063515 / 1-4000-6351-5)
Taleb, Nassim Nicholas
ISBN 10: 1400063515
ISBN 13: 9781400063512
Bookseller: FOURSEASONS4JOY, LLC (CHICAGO, IL, U.S.A.)
Bookseller Rating: 4-star rating
Quantity Available: 1

Book Description: Hardcover. Book Condition: BRAND NEW. BRAND NEW. Fast Shipping. Prompt Customer Service. Satisfaction guaranteed. Bookseller Inventory # 1400063515BNA

Bookseller & Payment Information | More Books from this Seller | Ask Bookseller a Question

Add Book to Shopping Basket
Price: US$ 16.88
Convert Currency
Shipping: US$ 3.99
Within U.S.A.
4.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (ISBN: 1400063515 / 1-4000-6351-5)
Taleb, Nassim Nicholas
ISBN 10: 1400063515
ISBN 13: 9781400063512
Bookseller: Nataraj Books, Inc. (Springfield, VA, U.S.A.)
Bookseller Rating: 4-star rating
Quantity Available: > 20

Book Description: Random House. Hardcover. Book Condition: New. 1400063515 *BRAND NEW* Ships Same Day or Next!. Bookseller Inventory # SWATI210682358

Bookseller & Payment Information | More Books from this Seller | Ask Bookseller a Question

Add Book to Shopping Basket
Price: US$ 18.11
Convert Currency
Shipping: US$ 3.99
Within U.S.A.
5.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Hardback) (ISBN: 9781400063512)
Taleb, Nassim Nicholas
ISBN 10: 1400063515
ISBN 13: 9781400063512
Bookseller: The Book Depository US (Gloucester, ., United Kingdom)
Bookseller Rating: 5-star rating
Quantity Available: 10

Book Description: Random House USA Inc, United States, 2007. Hardback. Book Condition: New. annotated edition. 234 x 164 mm. Brand New Book. The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the impossible. For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, On Robustness and Fragility, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book--itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb The most prophetic voice of all. --GQ Praise for The Black Swan [A book] that altered modern thinking. -- The Times (London) A masterpiece. --Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail Idiosyncratically brilliant. --Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works. --Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate [Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy. --The Wall Street Journal Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into. -- Financial Times Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition. --The New York Times Book Review. Bookseller Inventory # AAC9781400063512

Bookseller & Payment Information | More Books from this Seller | Ask Bookseller a Question

Add Book to Shopping Basket
Price: US$ 26.86
Convert Currency
Shipping: US$ 0.00
From United Kingdom to U.S.A.
6.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Hardback) (ISBN: 9781400063512)
Taleb, Nassim Nicholas
ISBN 10: 1400063515
ISBN 13: 9781400063512
Bookseller: The Book Depository (Gloucester, UK, United Kingdom)
Bookseller Rating: 5-star rating
Quantity Available: 10

Book Description: Random House USA Inc, United States, 2007. Hardback. Book Condition: New. annotated edition. 234 x 164 mm. Brand New Book. The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the impossible. For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, On Robustness and Fragility, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book--itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb The most prophetic voice of all. --GQ Praise for The Black Swan [A book] that altered modern thinking. -- The Times (London) A masterpiece. --Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail Idiosyncratically brilliant. --Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works. --Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate [Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy. --The Wall Street Journal Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into. -- Financial Times Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition. --The New York Times Book Review. Bookseller Inventory # AAC9781400063512

Bookseller & Payment Information | More Books from this Seller | Ask Bookseller a Question

Add Book to Shopping Basket
Price: US$ 27.57
Convert Currency
Shipping: US$ 0.00
From United Kingdom to U.S.A.
7.
The Black Swan (ISBN: 9781400063512)
Taleb, Nassim Nicholas
ISBN 10: 1400063515
ISBN 13: 9781400063512
Bookseller: BuySomeBooks (Las Vegas, NV, U.S.A.)
Bookseller Rating: 5-star rating
Quantity Available: 20

Book Description: Hardcover. Book Condition: New. Hardcover. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 911. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we dont know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the impossible. For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we dont know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark bookitself a black swan. 2nd Edition, With a new essay: On Robustness and Fragility This item ships from multiple locations. Your book may arrive from Roseburg,OR, La Vergne,TN, Momence,IL, Commerce,GA. book. Bookseller Inventory # 9781400063512

Bookseller & Payment Information | More Books from this Seller | Ask Bookseller a Question

Add Book to Shopping Basket
Price: US$ 27.30
Convert Currency
Shipping: US$ 4.50
Within U.S.A.
8.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto) (ISBN: 1400063515 / 1-4000-6351-5)
Taleb, Nassim Nicholas
ISBN 10: 1400063515
ISBN 13: 9781400063512
Bookseller: Russell Books (Victoria, BC, Canada)
Bookseller Rating: 5-star rating
Quantity Available: 16

Book Description: Random House. Hardcover. Book Condition: New. 1400063515 Special order direct from the distributor. Bookseller Inventory # ING9781400063512

Bookseller & Payment Information | More Books from this Seller | Ask Bookseller a Question

Add Book to Shopping Basket
Price: US$ 30.00
Convert Currency
Shipping: US$ 4.99
From Canada to U.S.A.
9.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (ISBN: 9781400063512)
Taleb, Nassim Nicholas
ISBN 10: 1400063515
ISBN 13: 9781400063512
Bookseller: Media Mall (Fyshwick, ACT, Australia)
Bookseller Rating: 5-star rating
Quantity Available: 1

Book Description: RANDOM HOUSE INC, 2007. Hardcover. Book Condition: New. 16.43 x 23.39 cm. xamines the role of the unexpected--the Black Swan--in both life and human history, explaining how the phenomenon and its applications affect every aspect of the world in which we live, why humans are unable to anticipate a Black Swan, and how we rationalize the phenomenon to make it appear less random. 50,000 .Our orders are sent from our warehouse locally or directly from our international distributors to allow us to offer you the best possible price and delivery time. Book. Bookseller Inventory # MM-00156888

Bookseller & Payment Information | More Books from this Seller | Ask Bookseller a Question

Add Book to Shopping Basket
Price: US$ 34.30
Convert Currency
Shipping: US$ 13.90
From Australia to U.S.A.
10.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (ISBN: 1400063515 / 1-4000-6351-5)
Taleb, Nassim Nicholas
ISBN 10: 1400063515
ISBN 13: 9781400063512
Bookseller: Revaluation Books (Exeter, DEV, United Kingdom)
Bookseller Rating: 5-star rating
Quantity Available: 10

Book Description: Random House Inc, 2007. Hardcover. Book Condition: Brand New. 1st edition. 366 pages. 9.25x6.25x1.25 inches. In Stock. Bookseller Inventory # z-1400063515

Bookseller & Payment Information | More Books from this Seller | Ask Bookseller a Question

Add Book to Shopping Basket
Price: US$ 38.89
Convert Currency
Shipping: US$ 10.24
From United Kingdom to U.S.A.
View All Listings for this Book