The Reckoning: Debt, Democracy, and the Future of American Power - Hardcover

Moran, Michael

Hardcover

ISBN 10: 023033993X ISBN 13: 9780230339934

Publisher: St. Martin's Press, 2012

Synopsis

The age of American global dominance is ending. In recent years, risky economic and foreign policies have steadily eroded the power structure in place since the Cold War. And now, staggering under a huge burden of debt, the country must make some tough choices--or watch its creditors walk away. In The Reckoning, Michael Moran, longtime foreign policy journalist and geostrategy analyst at Renaissance Capital, Roubini Global Economics, the Council on Foreign Relations, and other leading institutions, explores how a variety of forces are converging to challenge U.S. leadership--including unprecedented information technologies, the growing prosperity of countries like China, India, Brazil, and Turkey, and the diminished importance of Wall Street in the face of global markets.
This shift will have serious consequences for the wider world as well. Countries that have traditionally depended on the United States for protection will have to adjust their policies to reality. Each nation will be responsible for its own human rights record, energy production, and environmental policy, and revolutions will succeed or fail unaided. Moran describes how, with a bit of political leadership, America can transition to this new world order gracefully--by managing entitlements, reigniting sustainable growth, reforming immigration policy, and breaking the poisonous deadlock in Washington. If not, he warns, the new era will arrive on its own terms and provide a nasty shock to those clinging to the 20th century.

About this title

About the Author

Michael Moran is director and editor-in-chief of Renaissance Insights, a thought leadership arm of the investment bank Renaissance Capital. Previously with Roubini Global Economics in New York, Moran also authors The Reckoning blog for Slate and has consulted on geostrategy, political risk and digital media for Nouriel Roubini, Human Rights Watch, the Council on Foreign Relations and other leading international institutions. Over the past 25 years, he has reported and analyzed major events for some of the world's news organizations, the BBC, MSNBC.com and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. He lives in Hoboken, NJ.

From the Back Cover

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

A book like this, spanning many disciplines and the entire planet's past, present, and future concerns, demands the humility of someone able to ask the advice of others. To the extent that I am attacked or criticized for anything herein, the fault lies with me. Having said that, I am blessed with friends, former colleagues, and mentors who generously read drafts and provided guidance throughout the process, adding both wisdom and color to the fi nal product.

First, I'd like to thank my agent, Leah Spiro, who helped shape the initial proposal, my editor at Palgrave Macmillan, Emily Carleton, for her enthusiastic support and guidance, her assistant, Laura Lancaster, and my intern, Salil Motianey, who graciously proofread early chapters and helped with footnotes and other thankless tasks.

Among the many experts, practitioners, and simply smart people who offered feedback on various chapters were Frank Barbieri, Emily Field, Jeffrey Godbold, Andrew Nagorski, Jim Baldwin, and Douglas Varga, Kari Huus, my former BBC colleagues Richard Walker, Nick Childs, and Stephen Dalziel, Asia experts Adam Wolfe and Rachel Ziemba of Roubini Global Economics, Dr. William Turcotte (Emeritus) of the U.S. Naval War College, my former Council on Foreign Relations colleagues Greg Bruno, Steven Cook, and Sebastian Mallaby, and Robert McMahon, with whom I have had the pleasure of working at three different stops along my career: The Associated Press,

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, and CFR. For general friendship and advice, no one could have better friends than Suzanne Turcotte, Lynda Hammes, and Amer Nimr.

Nouriel Roubini, founder and chairman of Roubini Global Economics,and Christian Menegatti, his deputy and RGE's head of global research, deserve my special thanks for both friendship and their patience as I pestered them with fundamental questions about the global economy. I also owe a debt

to the following people who have guided my career and provided support at key moments that kept my unconventional career on track: Bill Kovach, Stephen Engelberg, and David Binder during my early career at The New York Times; Bill McIlwain of the Sarasota Herald-Tribune; Merrill Brown, Brian Storm, and Bob Aglow at MSNBC; Richard Haass, Trish Dorff, Jim Lindsay, David

Kellogg, and Lisa Shields at CFR; and Gideon Rose of Foreign Affairs.

Finally, to my parents--my Irish immigrant, USMC sergeant father, Edward M. Moran, who made all his four children do Saturday morning reports on random chapters of the World Book Encyclopedia, and, my mom, Marie, who uniquely never lost faith in me. I felt you with me every step of the way, mom, and miss you every day.

-- MICHAEL MORAN

From the Inside Flap

THE RECKONING

Copyright © Michael Moran, 2012.

All rights reserved.

First published in 2012

by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN®

in the United States--a division of St. Martin's Press LLC,

175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010.

Where this book is distributed in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world,

this is by Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited,

registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills,

Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS.

Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies

and has companies and representatives throughout the world.

Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States,

the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries.

ISBN 978-0-230-33993-4

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Moran, Michael, 1946-

The reckoning : debt, democracy, and the future of American power /

Michael Moran ; [foreword by] Nouriel Roubini.

p. cm.

Includes index.

ISBN 978-0-230-33993-4

1. United States--Economic policy--2009- 2. United States--

Economic conditions--2009- 3. United States--Foreign economic

relations. I. Title.

HC106.84.M67 2012

330.973--dc23 2011044895

A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library.

Design by Newgen Imaging Systems, Ltd., Chennai, India

First edition: April 2012

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Printed in the United States of America.

Reviews

The U.S. can no longer afford the exorbitant cost of national security or be responsible for global security and the sense of manifest destiny on which it is built. Working with the research of renowned economist Nouriel Roubini, Moran forecasts global trends that include the rise of China, India, Brazil and others while the U.S. maintains its strength but sees its “exceptionalism” tarnished. He analyzes the impact of important trends, including crushing U.S. national debt, information technology reducing U.S. influence around the world, the rising prosperity of emerging nations, and the loss of financial credibility because the U.S. triggered the economic crisis of 2008. Will the U.S. learn the lessons of the recent past or continue to deny reality? Moran sees a hopeful sign in the downgrading of debt, which forces tough decisions. But he also notes continued “ideological puritanism” that will wreck any plans for real change. His recommendations include a more manageable military budget, restoration of financial regulations, and strengthening of the middle class. A grim but hopeful analysis of the global position of the U.S. and the dire need for change. --Vanessa Bush

Edition details

• Publisher: St. Martin's Press
• Publication date: 2012
• Language: English
• ISBN 10: 023033993X
• ISBN 13: 9780230339934
• Binding: Hardcover
• Number of pages: 256