Risk Analysis: Assessing Uncertainties Beyond Expected Values and Probabilities

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9780470517369: Risk Analysis: Assessing Uncertainties Beyond Expected Values and Probabilities
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Everyday we face decisions that carry an element of risk anduncertainty. The ability to analyze, predict, and prepare for thelevel of risk entailed by these decisions is, therefore, one of themost constant and vital skills needed for analysts, scientists andmanagers.

Risk analysis can be defined as a systematic use of informationto identify hazards, threats and opportunities, as well as theircauses and consequences, and then express risk. In order tosuccessfully develop such a systematic use of information, thoseanalyzing the risk need to understand the fundamental concepts ofrisk analysis and be proficient in a variety of methods andtechniques. Risk Analysis adopts a practical, predictiveapproach and guides the reader through a number ofapplications.

Risk Analysis:

  • Provides an accessible and concise guide to performing riskanalysis in a wide variety of fields, with minimal prior knowledgerequired.
  • Adopts a broad perspective on risk, with focus on predictionsand highlighting uncertainties beyond expected values andprobabilities, allowing a more flexible approach than traditionalstatistical analysis.
  • Acknowledges that expected values and probabilities couldproduce poor predictions -   surprises may occur.  
  • Emphasizes the planning and use of risk analyses, rather thanjust the risk analysis methods and techniques, including thestatistical analysis tools.
  • Features many real-life case studies from a variety ofapplications and practical industry problems, including areas suchas security, business and economy, transport, oil & gas and ICT(Information and Communication Technology).
  • Forms an ideal companion volume to Aven’s previous Wileytext Foundations of Risk Analysis.

Professor Aven’s previous book Foundations of RiskAnalysis presented and discussed several risk analysisapproaches and recommended a predictive approach. This new textexpands upon this predictive approach, exploring further the riskanalysis principles, concepts, methods and models in an appliedformat. This book provides a useful and practical guide todecision-making, aimed at professionals within the risk analysisand risk management field.

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About the Author:

Terje Aven is Professor of risk analysis and risk management at the University of Stavanger, and a Principle Researcher at the International Research Institute of Stavanger (IRIS). Having worked in both industry and academia, he has participated in, and led, many safety and risk related projects, winning several awards for both research and teaching. He has published numerous papers in international journals, and has authored several books.

Review:

"This book provides accessible and concise guidance to the processof planning, execution and use of risk analysis in the context ofrisk management, with minimal prior knowledge required."(Journalof Applied Statistics, August 2009)

"The author has been successful in presenting the subject ofrisk analysis effectively. The reviewer would like to recommendthis book to all those who would like to know about risk analysisand how it can be performed in practical situations."(International Journal of Performability Engineering,January 2009)

 

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Book Description John Wiley and Sons Ltd, United States, 2008. Hardback. Condition: New. 1. Auflage. Language: English . Brand New Book. Everyday we face decisions that carry an element of risk and uncertainty. The ability to analyze, predict, and prepare for the level of risk entailed by these decisions is, therefore, one of the most constant and vital skills needed for analysts, scientists and managers. Risk analysis can be defined as a systematic use of information to identify hazards, threats and opportunities, as well as their causes and consequences, and then express risk. In order to successfully develop such a systematic use of information, those analyzing the risk need to understand the fundamental concepts of risk analysis and be proficient in a variety of methods and techniques. Risk Analysis adopts a practical, predictive approach and guides the reader through a number of applications. Risk Analysis: Provides an accessible and concise guide to performing risk analysis in a wide variety of fields, with minimal prior knowledge required. Adopts a broad perspective on risk, with focus on predictions and highlighting uncertainties beyond expected values and probabilities, allowing a more flexible approach than traditional statistical analysis. Acknowledges that expected values and probabilities could produce poor predictions - surprises may occur. Emphasizes the planning and use of risk analyses, rather than just the risk analysis methods and techniques, including the statistical analysis tools. Features many real-life case studies from a variety of applications and practical industry problems, including areas such as security, business and economy, transport, oil gas and ICT (Information and Communication Technology). Forms an ideal companion volume to Aven s previous Wiley text Foundations of Risk Analysis . Professor Aven s previous book Foundations of Risk Analysis presented and discussed several risk analysis approaches and recommended a predictive approach. This new text expands upon this predictive approach, exploring further the risk analysis principles, concepts, methods and models in an applied format. This book provides a useful and practical guide to decision-making, aimed at professionals within the risk analysis and risk management field. Seller Inventory # AAH9780470517369

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Book Description John Wiley and Sons Ltd, United States, 2008. Hardback. Condition: New. 1. Auflage. Language: English . Brand New Book. Everyday we face decisions that carry an element of risk and uncertainty. The ability to analyze, predict, and prepare for the level of risk entailed by these decisions is, therefore, one of the most constant and vital skills needed for analysts, scientists and managers. Risk analysis can be defined as a systematic use of information to identify hazards, threats and opportunities, as well as their causes and consequences, and then express risk. In order to successfully develop such a systematic use of information, those analyzing the risk need to understand the fundamental concepts of risk analysis and be proficient in a variety of methods and techniques. Risk Analysis adopts a practical, predictive approach and guides the reader through a number of applications. Risk Analysis: Provides an accessible and concise guide to performing risk analysis in a wide variety of fields, with minimal prior knowledge required. Adopts a broad perspective on risk, with focus on predictions and highlighting uncertainties beyond expected values and probabilities, allowing a more flexible approach than traditional statistical analysis. Acknowledges that expected values and probabilities could produce poor predictions - surprises may occur. Emphasizes the planning and use of risk analyses, rather than just the risk analysis methods and techniques, including the statistical analysis tools. Features many real-life case studies from a variety of applications and practical industry problems, including areas such as security, business and economy, transport, oil gas and ICT (Information and Communication Technology). Forms an ideal companion volume to Aven s previous Wiley text Foundations of Risk Analysis . Professor Aven s previous book Foundations of Risk Analysis presented and discussed several risk analysis approaches and recommended a predictive approach. This new text expands upon this predictive approach, exploring further the risk analysis principles, concepts, methods and models in an applied format. This book provides a useful and practical guide to decision-making, aimed at professionals within the risk analysis and risk management field. Seller Inventory # AAH9780470517369

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