The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios

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9780470844915: The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios

This book helps managers move beyond the idea that the future of business will resemble the past and allows them to use scenarios to imagine multiple perspectives. The concepts of organizational realities, experience, and beliefs are explored to encourage and embrace change in business organizations for a successful future.

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From the Back Cover:

This book is about organizational survival: the reasons why organizations do not always survive, and what can be done about it.

Survival means creating value for stakeholders, and the survival problem starts with uncertainty, change and the need for organizations to adapt to shifting needs and market conditions. The key question is 'Why are organizations slow to change and adapt?' Unsuccessful organizations are distinguished by their failure to overcome thinking and behavioural flaws at personal, organizational and community levels. In this book, we explain what these flaws are and how the scenario approach helps senior managers and organizations to overcome them. Our approach is based on reasoning, research, real world observations - and a long track record developing scenario-based thinking, combining the most effective elements of the many scenario approaches that have been tried over time.

'Organizational learning and scenario planning are seen by many business people as two separate disciplines, with different programmes and communities of practice. This book builds a bridge between the two. I believe this is important. It will invite the organizational learners to develop a deeper perspective on the longer-term business environment, and it will invite the scenario planners to consider their work in the context of organizational survival and development. Both will be better off, to the benefit of their organizations.'
Arie de Geus, author of The Living Company

'Helping organizations learn their way into the future in a world of complexity, uncertainty and ambiguity is what The Sixth Sense is all about. The book is a deep, insightful and practical guide to the tools an organization needs to break through the limits of its own thinking. Scenario thinkers and planners working to make their organizations adaptive learners will find invaluable tools and examples to guide their own development.'
Peter Schwartz, co-founder and chair of Global Business Network and author of The Art of the Long View.

From the Inside Flap:

This book explains:
* Why scenario thinking is increasingly important: how it has developed as an approach that can help build successful strategies and organizations.
* How scenarios are valuable in overcoming an obstacle or problem - current or potential - by enabling innovation and creative thinking 'outside the box'.
* How scenario thinking can be used to resolve organizational flaws by enhancing the strategic conversation.
* How to understand the scenario approach in the context of effective organizational learning and development.
* How to ensure that scenario thinking is included in a wider strategic and organizational learning framework, essential for organizational survival.
Outlining the benefits and techniques of scenario thinking The Sixth Sense shows that scenario thinking is purposeful and effective in driving strategy and organizational development towards managerial and organizational success.

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van der Heijden, Kees; Bradfield, Ron; Burt, George; Cairns, George; Wright, George
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van der Heijden, Kees; Bradfield, Ron; Burt, George; Cairns, George; Wright, George
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van der Heijden, Kees; Bradfield, Ron; Burt, George; Cairns, George; Wright, George
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Book Description John Wiley and Sons Ltd, United Kingdom, 2002. Hardback. Book Condition: New. 1. Auflage. 228 x 156 mm. Language: English . Brand New Book. This book helps managers move beyond the idea that the future of business will resemble the past and allows them to use scenarios to imagine multiple perspectives. The concepts of organizational realities, experience, and beliefs are explored to encourage and embrace change in business organizations for a successful future. Bookseller Inventory # AAH9780470844915

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van der Heijden, Kees; Bradfield, Ron; Burt, George; Cairns, George; Wright, George
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Book Description John Wiley and Sons Ltd, United Kingdom, 2002. Hardback. Book Condition: New. 228 x 156 mm. Language: English . Brand New Book. This book helps managers move beyond the idea that the future of business will resemble the past and allows them to use scenarios to imagine multiple perspectives. The concepts of organizational realities, experience, and beliefs are explored to encourage and embrace change in business organizations for a successful future. Bookseller Inventory # AAH9780470844915

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van der Heijden, Kees; Bradfield, Ron; Burt, George; Cairns, George; Wright, George
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van der Heijden, Kees; Bradfield, Ron; Burt, George; Cairns, George; Wright, George
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Book Description Wiley, 2002. Book Condition: New. Brand New, Unread Copy in Perfect Condition. A+ Customer Service! Summary: ABOUT THE AUTHORS. INTRODUCTION. The Quest for a Clear Vision of the Future. Unknown Variables, Uncertain Future. The Significance of Scenario Thinking. Developing the Sixth Sense - the Approach to Scenario Thinking. How this Book is Organized. 1. PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE. Understanding Organizational Success. Success and Failure are Inevitable. Understanding success by understanding failure. Explaining the Sharpbenders Research: Why Organizations Fail. Maintaining Organizational Performance: Problems. Sustaining Competitive Advantage - the Battle of Canon and Xerox. Yahoo! - Competing in Fast-moving Markets. Building a Colourful New Future Brick by Brick - the Story of Lego. Success Stories. Providing Customer Value - the Rise of Tetra Pak. Entering New Markets and Maintaining Growth - Nokia Answers the Call. Barriers to Strategic Success. Lessons Learned. Creating Value - The Difference Between Success and Failure. Value is Created in a Domain of Scarcity. Summary: Understanding the Barriers to Scenario Planning. 2. HOW MANAGERS THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE. Understanding Management Thinking. Routines in Management Thinking. Over-reliance on Routines: Success Formulas and Managerial Thinking. Biases in thinking. The Relevance of Framing Flaws. How a Failed Product Launch Actually Boosted Sales: the Sparkle of New Coke. Confirmation Bias. Hindsight Bias. The Problem of Overconfidence. The Limitations of Judgemental Forecasting. Decision Avoidance. Escalation of Commitment. Bolstering, Procrastination and Buck-Passing. Example of a Management Team Facing a Decision Dilemma. Thinking Flaws: A Synthesis. Overcoming Strategic Inertia: the Potential Benefits of Scenario Planning. A Scenario is not a Forecast of the Future. Scenarios Focus on Key Uncertainties and Certainties About the Future. Scenarios Help Identify Information to Anticipate How the Future will Unfold. Typical Outcomes of the Scenario Planning Process. Summary: Overcoming Thinking Flaws with Scenario Planning. Summary Checklist - the Limits to Managerial Thinking. 3. HOW ORGANIZATIONS THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE. Flaws in Organizational Thinking. Communication Difficulties. Group-think in Organizations. Fragmentation in Organizations. Limitations Imposed by Identity. Balancing Change and Constancy. Overcoming the Limits of Organizational Identity: the Example of IBM. Organizational Lock-in. Understanding Organizational Lock-in. The Consequences of Organizational Feedback Loops and Lock-in. Behavioural flaws. Learning and Action. An Organizational Dilemma. Management and Action. Overcoming the Pathologies of Organizational Life. Using Organizational Processes. The Benefits of Scenario Planning Interventions. Summary: How Organizations Think About the Future. 4. THE IMPACT OF CULTURE AND CULTURAL ASSUMPTIONS ON STRATEGY. Understanding the Impact of Cultural Issues. The Significance to Strategy of Globalization and Cultural Issues. From Mickey Mouse to The Lion King: the Tale of Disney in France. Defining Culture for Pragmatic Purposes. Recognizing Differences in Others. The Value of Scenarios in Assessing the Impact of Cultural Factors. National Cultural Differences and the Role of Scenario Thinking. Global Organizations and Local Service Offerings: IKEA Shelve Their Universal Approach. How Can We Explore Differences in National Cultures? Differences in Organizational Cultures. A Clash of Personality: The Merger of Daimler-Benz and Chrysler. Organizational Culture and the External Environment. Differences in Professional Cultures Within Organizations. The Call of the Wild: How Va. Bookseller Inventory # ABE_book_new_0470844914

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van der Heijden, Kees; Bradfield, Ron; Burt, George; Cairns, George; Wright, George
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van der Heijden, Kees; Bradfield, Ron; Burt, George; Cairns, George; Wright, George
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Book Description 2002. Hardcover. Book Condition: New. 1st. 162mm x 23mm x 234mm. Hardcover. This book helps managers move beyond the idea that the future of business will resemble the past and allows them to use scenarios to imagine multiple perspectives. The concepts of organiza.Shipping may be from multiple locations in the US or from the UK, depending on stock availability. 320 pages. 0.590. Bookseller Inventory # 9780470844915

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