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In an increasingly complex world, decision analysis plays a key role in helping managers gain a greater understanding of the situations they face. This updated classic offers unrivalled coverage of the problems associated with unaided managerial decision making and the methods designed to overcome them, all presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner. The Third Edition is extensively updated and reflects new developments such as 'fast and frugal heuristics' and "structured risk management". A new website will offer links, additional exercises and case studies, and downloadable Excel spreadsheets.
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Decision analysis can play a valuable role in helping people to make decisions that involve risks or multiple objectives, but potential users are often deterred by the presentation of the subject in a mathematical form. This book aims to make decision analysis accessible to managers and administrators. Written in a user-friendly style, with little or no mathematical notation, and using practical examples, the book is unrivalled in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It demonstrates the pitfalls associated with unaided decision making and shows how difficult decisions can be tackled in structured ways so that new insights emerge and a documented and defensible rationale for the decision is established.
Extended and updated, this new edition contains a new chapter on structured risk and uncertainty management, updated coverage of research on how people make decisions, including fast and frugal heuristics, a detailed case study demonstrating the application of scenario planning and enhanced coverage of decision framing. Additional exercises have also been added to many chapters, while a companion web site contains valuable resources for lecturers and students. These include detailed answers to end-of-chapter exercises, PowerPoint slides, specimen examination papers and coursework with suggested answers, and links to other resources on the Internet, including downloadable software.
Assuming no prior knowledge of decision analysis, this book will help both practising managers faced with the responsibility of making crucial decisions as well as students on management, business administration and operations research courses.About the Author:
Paul Goodwin is Senior Lecturer in Management Science in the Management School at the University of Bath. His research interests focus on the role of management judgment in forecasting and decision-making, and he has published in key journals in the field. He is an Associate Editor of the International Journal of Forecasting and a member of the editorial board of the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. He has consulted with firms such as British Telecom and South Western Electricity.
George Wright is a psychologist with an interest in the role and validity of judgment in decision making and forecasting. He is especially interested in the use of management science- and behaviorally-based methods to improve decision-making. He has published in key journals, and is the Editor of the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. He has consulted with firms such as IBM, ICL, NEC, Petronas, Jordan Ministry of Planning, and the Scottish Football Association.
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