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How can we predict and control risks related to the transportationof hazardous substances? This book explains what a transportationquantitative risk analysis is, how to communicate risk studyobjectives to an experienced risk analyst, and how to do areasonably detailed calculation based on available risk data. Theauthor explains the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) procedure andits application to transportation. He familiarizes readers withsources of data specific to accident rate, probabilisticdistribution of accident force magnitude, and conditionalprobability of container failure. Risk analysis methodologies anddata uncertainties are also clearly explained. A special feature ofthe book is an extended example of a quantitative risk analysis forbulk transport of chlorine by truck and train. This detailedexample explores every step of the QRA from preliminary hazardsanalysis to risk reduction alternatives. This example can beadapted to many practical situations. Methodologies are providedfor accident scenario development, frequency and consequenceanalysis, and risk presentation. The book has in-depth discussionsof
* Definitions of basic risk analysis terms
* Mathematical formulations for transportation quantitative riskanalysis
* Databases for accident rate and frequency, accident force typesand magnitudes, container failure probability, and releaseamounts
* Engineering models for container failure analysis
* Quantification of the risk reduction of modifying containerdesign
* A generalized fault tree that can be easily modified fordifferent types of transportation risk analysis
The discussion of consequence analysis delves into release ratesand amounts, airborne dispersion, toxic material effects, exposedpopulations, and exposure mitigation measures. Analysis results forboth individual and societal risks are discussed. Appendices covernumerical evaluation of train and truck accident scenariofrequencies and source term characterization. Hazardous MaterialsTransportation Risk Analysis will be a valuable reference forsupervisors and managers who ship, receive, or transport hazardousmaterials: state, federal, and local transportation officials;transportation packaging engineers; and others, such as emergencyplanners and environmental analysts, who have reason to understandtransportation risk.
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About the Author WILLIAM R. RHYNE, D.Sc., is Vice President ofH&R Technical Associates, Inc., in Oak Ridge, Tennessee.
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