Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future

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9780471977902: Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future
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Scenario Planning Managing for the Future Gill Ringland "Nobody can ignore the future. This book is a must-read for any manager aspiring to put scenarios into practice." Arie De Geus, Former Director of Shell International Petroleum and author of The Living Company "Never since the great geographical expansions of the eighteenth century has so much latent potential been met with tools so ill-fitted to harness it. Information technology will change how, where, when we work. Scenario Planning offers us a mechanism by which to bring structure to this and other forms of complexity; offering us the vital ability to understand the dynamics of change." Oliver Sparrow, Chatham House Forum Business today operates in a world of major change. Economies, commerce and lifestyles are constantly shifting but it is the information revolution which will prove the most radical since its agricultural and industrial counterparts. It cannot be constrained by borders but is simultaneously reaching across the world. In this environment, the techniques for planning business over the past decades are no longer sufficient. Forecasts based on current trends, or estimates of growth based on history are in danger of becoming obsolete all too quickly. The idea in the early days of mainframe computers that 'every major country will need one' demonstrates how uncertain the future can really be. The scenario planning techniques described in this book will enable anyone to think about uncertainty in a structured way. Key features are:
* detailed 'how to' look for early indicators of directions, and identify possible courses of action for those new to scenarios.
* extensive case studies, including ICL, British Airways and United Distillers.
* includes 'do' as well as 'do not' examples to aid practitioners; tells you what works when and why.
* takes a conceptual, rather than a mathematical approach.
The overall message of this book is that scenarios are not predictions or forecasts, but they are powerful weapons in managing the uncertainties of the future. Jacket illustration by Nick Orsborne

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From the Publisher:

A strategic management tool that helps companies create their own futures. In this book, readers learn all about powerful scenario planning tools that dramatically magnify a manager's ability to zero in on the most important emerging trends and develop sets of likely future scenarios from them. They also learn how to fashion dynamic strategies for taking advantage of whichever future emerges.

From the Inside Flap:

The history of scenario planning is rich and varied. Throughout the ages people have tried to make decisions today by studying the possibilities of tomorrow. When that tomorrow was more predictable and less fraught with uncertainty, those possibilities had a good chance of being the right ones. Now, however, the only given constant in a world of complexity is change itself. In an environment where information technology is driving an information revolution, and where the rules can be rewritten with breathtaking speed, planning can seem more based on luck than foresight. But, as this book shows, there are methods for coping with unpredictability. The scenario planning techniques described in this book will help to think about uncertainty in a structured way. Case studies including ICL, British Airways and United Distillers highlight the fact that those who feel scenario planning too 'futurist' to take seriously should take another look at its usefulness in wrestling with the pace of change.

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Other Popular Editions of the Same Title

9781909300545: Scenario Planning

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ISBN 10:  1909300543 ISBN 13:  9781909300545
Publisher: The Choir Press, 2014
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9780470018811: Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future

Wiley, 2006
Hardcover

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