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Synopsis
Growing out of a conference on Expectations Formation and Economic Disequilibrium held in New York City in 1981, the papers in this volume provide a complex view of market processes in which individual rationality is no guarantee of convergence to the 'correct' model and the equilibrium coordination of agents' plans. They reject the 'optimality' argument for the rational expectations hypothesis, opening the door to other hypotheses of optimal expectations of agents in the decentralized market economy.
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Book Description
Based on a conference on Expectations Formation and Economic Disequilibrium, this set of papers provides a complex view of market processes and sheds new light on the rational expectations hypothesis.
About the Author
Roman Frydman is professor of economics at New York University and the coauthor or coeditor of many books, including "Individual Forecasting and Aggregate Outcomes: "Rational Expectations" Examined." Michael D. Goldberg is associate professor of economics at the University of New Hampshire. His articles on international finance and macroeconomics have appeared in "Economic Journal" and "Journal of International Money and Finance."
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Individual Forecasting and Aggregate Outcomes : "Rational Expectations" Examined
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Cambridge University Press, 1984
ISBN 10: 0521257441
ISBN 13: 9780521257442
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Individual forecasting and aggregate outcomes : "rational expectations" examined. Ex-Library.
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Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK., &c., 1983
ISBN 10: 0521257441
ISBN 13: 9780521257442
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Hardcover. Condition: Good. No Jacket. ix, 238 p. Seller Inventory # GU3712
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Individual Forecasting and Aggregate Outcomes: 'Rational Expectations' Examined
Published by
Cambridge University Press 27.01.1984., 1984
ISBN 10: 0521257441
ISBN 13: 9780521257442
Used
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Seller: NEPO UG, Rüsselsheim am Main, Germany
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Individual forecasting and aggregate outcomes: 'Rational expectations' examined.
Published by
Cambridge, etc.: Cambridge University Press, 1983., 1983
ISBN 10: 0521257441
ISBN 13: 9780521257442
Used
Hardcover
First Edition
Seller: Ted Kottler, Bookseller, Redondo Beach, CA, U.S.A.
Seller rating 4 out of 5 stars
Hardcover. Condition: Fine. Dust Jacket Condition: Fine. 1st Edition. ix, 238 pp. Original cloth. Some neat ink underlining on pp. 2-7, 9, else Near Fine, in near fine dust jacket. Out of print in cloth; in print in paperback at US$43.00. Edmund S. Phelps: Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, 2006, 'for his analysis of intertemporal tradeoffs in macroeconomic policy.' 'Last but not least, positing rational expectations equilibrium is not just inaccurate as a way to close the model in the same sense as postulating rational choice is taken to be inaccurate: It is inappropriate to impose on the model. In a highly innovative economy and thus one subject to change, firms even firms in the same industry and location are all thinking differently. So a firm would have no grounds to reason, as it implicitly does in rational-expectations theory, that 'since I have calculated I must raise my wages by x percent, I should now take into account that my competitors are planning to do the same; so I must now adjust my wage increase even more .' This kind of inductive reasoning to arrive at the right expectations is inapplicable. That is the thesis of my piece (Phelps, 1983) in the Frydman-Phelps volume [offered here]' (Phelps, 'Macroeconomics for a Modern Economy', Nobel Lecture, Dec. 8, 2006). Contents: Preface; 1. Introduction Roman Frydman and Edmund S. Phelps; 2. The trouble with 'rational expectations' and the problem of inflation stabilization Edmund S. Phelps; Comment Phillip Cagan; 3. Expectations of others' expectations and the transitional nonneutrality of fully believed systematic monetary policy Juan Carlos Di Tata; Comment Clive Bull; 4. The stability of rational expectations in macroeconomic models George Evans; Comment Guillermo A. Calvo; 5. Individual rationality, decentralization, and the rational expectations hypothesis Roman Frydman; 6. Convergence to rational expectations equilibrium Margaret Bray; Comment Roy Radner; 7. A distinction between the unconditional expectational equilibrium and the rational expectations equilibrium Roman Frydman; 8. On mistaken beliefs and resultant equilibria Alan Kirman; Comment Jerry Green; 9. Equilibrium theory with learning and disparate expectations: some issues and methods Robert M. Townsend; Comment John B. Taylor; 10. Keynesianism, monetarism, and rational expectations: some reflections and conjectures Axel Leijonhufvud; Comment Frank Hahn; Index. Seller Inventory # 18356
Quantity: 1 available
Stock Image
Individual forecasting and aggregate outcomes: 'Rational expectations' examined.
Published by
Cambridge, etc.: Cambridge University Press, 1983., 1983
ISBN 10: 0521257441
ISBN 13: 9780521257442
Used
Hardcover
First Edition
Seller: Ted Kottler, Bookseller, Redondo Beach, CA, U.S.A.
Seller rating 4 out of 5 stars
Hardcover. Condition: Fine. Dust Jacket Condition: Fine. 1st Edition. ix, 238 pp. Original cloth. Signature of former owner on front flyleaf, else Near Fine, in near fine dust jacket. Out of print in cloth; in print in paperback at US$43.00. Edmund S. Phelps: Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, 2006, 'for his analysis of intertemporal tradeoffs in macroeconomic policy.' 'Last but not least, positing rational expectations equilibrium is not just inaccurate as a way to close the model in the same sense as postulating rational choice is taken to be inaccurate: It is inappropriate to impose on the model. In a highly innovative economy and thus one subject to change, firms even firms in the same industry and location are all thinking differently. So a firm would have no grounds to reason, as it implicitly does in rational-expectations theory, that 'since I have calculated I must raise my wages by x percent, I should now take into account that my competitors are planning to do the same; so I must now adjust my wage increase even more .' This kind of inductive reasoning to arrive at the right expectations is inapplicable. That is the thesis of my piece (Phelps, 1983) in the Frydman-Phelps volume [offered here]' (Phelps, 'Macroeconomics for a Modern Economy', Nobel Lecture, Dec. 8, 2006). Contents: Preface; 1. Introduction Roman Frydman and Edmund S. Phelps; 2. The trouble with 'rational expectations' and the problem of inflation stabilization Edmund S. Phelps; Comment Phillip Cagan; 3. Expectations of others' expectations and the transitional nonneutrality of fully believed systematic monetary policy Juan Carlos Di Tata; Comment Clive Bull; 4. The stability of rational expectations in macroeconomic models George Evans; Comment Guillermo A. Calvo; 5. Individual rationality, decentralization, and the rational expectations hypothesis Roman Frydman; 6. Convergence to rational expectations equilibrium Margaret Bray; Comment Roy Radner; 7. A distinction between the unconditional expectational equilibrium and the rational expectations equilibrium Roman Frydman; 8. On mistaken beliefs and resultant equilibria Alan Kirman; Comment Jerry Green; 9. Equilibrium theory with learning and disparate expectations: some issues and methods Robert M. Townsend; Comment John B. Taylor; 10. Keynesianism, monetarism, and rational expectations: some reflections and conjectures Axel Leijonhufvud; Comment Frank Hahn; Index. Seller Inventory # 18374
Quantity: 1 available