Big Dragon: The Future of China: What It Means for Business, the Economy, and the Global Order - Softcover

Daniel Burstein; Arne De Keijzer

Softcover

ISBN 10: 0684853663 ISBN 13: 9780684853666

Publisher: Free Press, 1999

Synopsis

After the dust settles on the current Asian crisis, China will still exist -- the other super-power in the world of the twenty-first century, the country that has been rightfully dubbed not just another player in Asia but the "biggest player in the history of man."
This thought-provoking book explores how China will evolve and what its emerging economic prowess and growing political clout will mean for business, economic, and political interests. In a book that counters alarmist views of China as the new cold war enemy, as well as the naive optimism of those still overly bullish on a China facing huge economic pressure and structural challenges, Big Dragon offers a hard-edged, realistic, and eminently readable assessment of a nation that stands on the fulcrum of the global future. It was the book most widely read by senior American and Chinese officials during President Clinton's historic 1998 summit meeting with President Jiang Zemin.
Daniel Burstein and Arne de Keijzer, who together have more than fifty years' experience traveling in China, doing business in China, and writing about China, offer a fresh, intelligent, and ultimately positive business and political strategy for the United States.

About this title

Review

China by the year 2030 will be not only the world's most populous nation, but also the world's largest economy, a superpower in every sense of the word. Its emergence as "the biggest player in the history of man," in the words of former Singapore prime minister Lee Kuan Yew, will shift the global balance of wealth and power in the next millennium. Big Dragon draws a nuanced portrait of the historic changes now underway in China and drafts a practical blueprint for maintaining constructive Sino-American relations. The book is must reading for anyone concerned with international business, finance, or politics. That should include almost everyone.

Coauthors Daniel Burstein and Arne de Keijzer show a deep understanding of China's rich culture and manifold complexities as a society. Burstein is an investment banker who has written four other books on global economic issues, including Yen!, on the Japanese economy. Arne de Keijzer consults with companies doing business in China and is the author of three guides to the country, including China: Business Strategies for the '90s.

The authors analyze both the challenges and the opportunities posed by China in the next century. Without airbrushing China's authoritarian government, geopolitical ambitions, or abysmal record on human rights, Big Dragon seeks to counter the views of some in the U.S. who conclude that China is the enemy. Burstein and de Keijzer believe China is unlikely to become militarily aggressive, though the status of Taiwan involves the potential for conflict. They believe China will not disintegrate like the Soviet Union, though regions will continue to struggle with Beijing for greater autonomy, perhaps bringing about a degree of federalism. Big Dragon profiles many individual Chinese entrepreneurs and others who are bringing a new China into being. From the transformations the Chinese have already wrought, the authors believe that China's journey down the path toward a pluralistic economy and even a form of democracy is irreversible.

If so, the best policy for the U.S. and other powers is what the authors call "dynamic engagement" with China. They favor continued, normal trade as the only means to persuade China to do better on human rights and in other areas of conflict, such as intellectual piracy. They favor integrating China into the world economy through membership in the World Trade Organization and other international bodies. And they favor a broad expansion of U.S.-China exchange programs involving students, elected officials, and community leaders.

Big Dragon is a useful antidote to the cartoon versions of China proffered in some books and in many Western news media. Burstein and de Keijzer communicate a sense of China's complex diversity. Like any nation--more so, because of its size--China is full of contradictions. Putting them in perspective and gaining a better sense of where they may lead will be hugely important in understanding the shape of the world to come. Big Dragon is an excellent guide. --Barry Mitzman

About the Author

Daniel Burstein is the author of five books on global economics and technology trends, including bestselling titles such as Yen! and Road Warriors. He is Senior Advisor at the Blackstone Group, a leading New York investment bank, and makes his home in Connecticut.

About this edition

• Publisher: Free Press
• Publication date: 1999
• ISBN 10: 0684853663
• ISBN 13: 9780684853666
• Binding: Paperback
• Number of pages: 416