China's Futures - Hardcover

Ogilvy, James; Schwartz, Peter; Flower, Joe

Hardcover

ISBN 10: 0787952001 ISBN 13: 9780787952006

Publisher: Jossey-Bass, 2000

Synopsis

As it emerges from centuries of social, military, and political strife, China--which represents one fifth of the world's population and its third largest economy--is poised to play a major role in global business. But what will that role be? In this book, two experts, who have created business scenarios for some of the world's largest organizations--including Royal Dutch/Shell, AT&T, IBM, and Motorola--present three very informed versions of how China's future may unfold in the coming years and what it means to the rest of the world. These scenarios provide a foundation on which today's companies can build business strategies for years to come.
Click here to read the preface from this book.

About this title

About the Author

JAMES OGILVY and PETER SCHWARTZ are partners in Global Business Network (GBN), a consulting and research firm that is devoted to helping clients develop business strategies that fit the emerging realities of global markets. They are responsible for the widespread use of business scenarios, a process they pioneered in the early 1990s and which Schwartz made popular through his book The Art of the Long View.

From the Back Cover

As it emerges from centuries of social, military, and political strife, China--which represents one-fifth of the world's population and its third largest economy--is poised to play a major role in global business. But what will that role be? In this book, two experts, who have created business scenarios for some of the world's largest organizations--including Royal Dutch/Shell, AT&T, IBM, and Motorola--present three very informed versions of how China's future may unfold in the coming years and what it means to the rest of the world. These scenarios provide a foundation on which today's companies can build sound business strategies for years to come.

From the Inside Flap

According to the World Bank, more than 170 million people have risen out of poverty in China in the last twenty years--more than anywhere, in any period, in the history of the world. China's markets have opened to the West and the nation has begun to accept foreign partnerships and investment as well. Already China is the world's third largest economy and America's biggest trading partner in Asia. The path China takes over the coming decades will have a profound impact on business and the economy in the United States and around the world. In this book, two experts in scenario development present three versions of what China's future might look like and what that will mean for the governments and companies that will be doing business with or in China. James Ogilvy and Peter Schwartz have established international reputations as pioneers of scenario development--a blend of research, trend analysis, and well-tutored imagination that has become an integral part of strategic planning for many of today's top companies. Their clients include Royal Dutch/Shell, AT IBM, and Motorola. In this book, they draw on a range of studies conducted for companies anxious to understand the future consequences of the decisions they're making today with respect to China.The authors present their scenarios in an absorbing narrative form, like histories written twenty years from now. They explain the predetermined elements, assumptions, and variables that underlie each scenario. They also draw implications and make suggestions about how companies can use each scenario to plan business strategy. Their insights into China's future will help global business managers, strategists, and government policy professionals prepare for what many predict will be the Asian Century.

Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.

Preface

We offer this book neither as futurists nor as experts on China, but as practitioners of the art of scenario planning. We cannot predict the future. No one can. Nor can we know enough about China to chart its direction with certainty. But in the face of these two vast imponderables, China and the future, we can apply the art and science of scenario planning to grapple with their combined and compounded uncertainties in a methodical and useful way.

We have spent more than twenty years creating scenarios for some of the world's largest organizations, from Royal Dutch/Shell, AT&T, IBM, and Motorola to Monsanto, ARCO, Xerox, and the CIA, with dozens of others in between. When working with these giants, giant countries and their giant markets are unavoidable objects of study. As its doors to the rest of the world open wide, China looms large on the radar of global companies.

And China looms large in our imaginations as thoughtful citizens. Our children will inhabit what some forecast as the Asian century. If the nineteenth century was Europe's, and the twentieth was America's, then it is entirely possible that the twenty-first century will feature the reemergence of China as the globe's largest economy. Boasting one of the world's oldest civilizations, China has a history of opening to the world and then closing in upon its own vastness. Almost never expansionist but always influential, China just now seems to be in an opening phase of her historic rhythm. The morning sun of history is opening the petals of this millennial morning glory . . . or oriental lotus blossom.

This book contains three very different scenarios reaching twenty years into China's future-not long, compared to China's thousands of years of history, but long enough to allow for very divergent paths. And short enough to make a major difference in our lifetimes. The content of these scenarios comes from a range of different studies conducted for large organizations that have been our clients, and the research we conducted on their behalf. There is, of course, no research today that bears a copyright of 2010.

"Research" that is relevant to the future-what we call presearch-is a subtle blend of trend analysis and well-tutored imagination. The crafting of alternative scenarios is both a science and an art. It is based on research on the past and the present combined with a sense of history and an imagination for what is possible in the future.

When we create a set of scenarios on any given country or company or industry, we are well aware that we cannot explore all possible futures. Nor can we predict the future that will actually unfold. Forecasts are notoriously unreliable in a world as complex as ours. So our choice of scenarios is based on years of experience at choosing the most important variables around which to weave our tales.

Part One of this book contains brief treatments of some basics-the predetermined elements that will remain under all scenarios-as well as the main variables whose varying values will differentiate one scenario from another, what we call the driving forces of our scenarios. Part Two contains the scenarios themselves, each a linear narrative that is written like a history from a perspective more than two decades from now. Part Three draws some implications from the set of scenarios taken as a whole, as well as some suggestions on how to use these scenarios in making your own plans with respect to China's futures.

J.O. and P.S. November 1999

Edition details

• Publisher: Jossey-Bass
• Publication date: 2000
• Language: English
• ISBN 10: 0787952001
• ISBN 13: 9780787952006
• Binding: Hardcover
• Edition number: 1
• Number of pages: 192