Dire Demographics: Population Trends in the Russian Federation (Population Matters)

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9780833029300: Dire Demographics: Population Trends in the Russian Federation (Population Matters)

Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation has seen itsbirths plummet and its deaths increase sharply. Mortality increases havebeen particularly steep for working-age males and are often attributable toalcohol-related causes. Some analysts fear the Russian population coulddecline by nearly a third between now and 2050. In the short-term, Russiamay be better able to stabilize its population numbers by focusing more oncurbing mortality than increasing fertility. Past Soviet pronatalistincentives had only negligible long-term effects on the number of births.The types of health problems indicated by high Russian mortality rates pointto a greater need for preventive rather than curative care. In sum, thedemographic problems Russia faces indicate it may do better to focus onqualitative indicators, such as the health and welfare of its population,than on quantitative indicators, such as the overall size of its population.

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From the Publisher:

Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the demographics of the RussianFederation have revealed several adverse trends. Although thought tobe recent, many of these trends actually continue the rocky demo-graphichistory that characterized the Soviet Union. These demo-graphicvariables indicate substantial challenges confronting bothpolicymakers within the Russian Federation and members of the in-ternationalcommunity concerned about Russia. This report reviewsthe major demographic trends that are currently affecting Russiansocial welfare and that will shape options for Russian policymakersin future years.This report grew out of a conference on "Russia's DemographicCrisis in Comparative Perspective," held in 1995 at RAND with re-searchersfrom Russia's Center for Demography and HumanEconomy, part of the Russian Academy of Sciences. In 1996, RANDissued conference proceedings that included the major papers deliv-eredat the conference (DaVanzo, 1996). In 1997, we published anissue paper based on the conference proceedings that used updatedstatistics where available (DaVanzo and Adamson, 1997). For thisreport, we have again updated information based on the latest avail-ablestatistics. We have also updated and expanded our interpreta-tionsof these statistics and their implications.This research has been presented to the U.S. State DepartmentBureau of Intelligence and Research, the Winter Colloquium of theMorrison Institute for Population and Resource Studies at StanfordUniversity, the board of directors for the Center for Russia andEurasia at RAND, and the RAND board of trustees.This report, which should be of interest to all persons who are con-cernedabout the policy implications of demographic issues inRussia, was prepared for the Population Matters project within theRAND Labor and Population Program. The primary focus ofPopulation Matters is synthesizing and communicating the findingsand implications of existing research in ways that policy analysts andothers will find accessible.The Population Matters project is funded by grants from the Williamand Flora Hewlett Foundation, the David and Lucile PackardFoundation, and the Rockefeller Foundation. For a complete list ofPopulation Matters publications, please see the inside back cover ofthis report.

About the Author:

JULIE DaVANZO (University of California, Los Angeles Ph.D., Economics) is the Director, Population Matters Project at RAND.

CLIFFORD GRAMMICH (The University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois. Doctor of PhD) is a communication analyst at RAND.

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Davanzo, Julie
Published by Rand Publishing (2001)
ISBN 10: 0833029304 ISBN 13: 9780833029300
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