Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House, 2012 Edition

3.96 avg rating
( 45 ratings by Goodreads )
 
9781442212114: Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House, 2012 Edition
View all copies of this ISBN edition:
 
 

In Predicting the Next President political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or “keys” (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections. In the chronological, successful application of these keys to every election since 1860, Lichtman dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. An indispensable resource for political junkies who want to get a head-start on calling Decision 2012.

"synopsis" may belong to another edition of this title.

About the Author:

Allan J. Lichtman teaches history at American University in Washington, D.C. He is a regular political analyst for CNN Headline News and also provides political commentary for every other network and cable channel. He is the author of White Protestant Nation: The Rise of the American Conservative Movement.

Review:

Lichtman's book has gone through many editions because his 12 keys to predicting the next president all seem plausible influences on presidential election outcomes. To his credit, Lichtman (history, American Univ.) has called the outcome of every presidential election from 1984 to 2008. Yet some of his model's variables permit a bit of fudging. Two involve the relative "charisma" of the presidential candidates. Similar concerns arise regarding his variables "sustained social unrest," "scandal," and foreign/military "success" and "failure." Reliable measures of any of these "keys" are fraught with peril. This is the case regarding his 2012 prediction of an Obama victory. For example, Lichtman says that neither the Tea Party nor Occupy Wall Street movements are a sign of sustained social unrest, but that remains a judgment call. Perhaps the best way to understand Lichtman's prior success is that he correctly defined some fuzzy factors for several elections. But given the ambiguity of several "keys," future predictions have considerable capacity for error. The book does not discover the Rosetta Stone of election forecasts, but instead reveals one scholar's able series of educated guesses. Summing Up: Recommended. (CHOICE)

"About this title" may belong to another edition of this title.

Other Popular Editions of the Same Title

9781442269200: Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House

Featured Edition

ISBN 10:  1442269200 ISBN 13:  9781442269200
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2016
Softcover

Top Search Results from the AbeBooks Marketplace

1.

Allan J. Lichtman
Published by Rowman & Littlefield Publishers (2012)
ISBN 10: 144221211X ISBN 13: 9781442212114
New Softcover First Edition Quantity Available: 1
Seller:
Irish Booksellers
(Portland, ME, U.S.A.)
Rating
[?]

Book Description Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2012. Condition: New. book. Seller Inventory # M144221211X

More information about this seller | Contact this seller

Buy New
US$ 35.87
Convert Currency

Add to Basket

Shipping: FREE
Within U.S.A.
Destination, Rates & Speeds

2.

Allan J. Lichtman
Published by Rowman & Littlefield Publishers (2012)
ISBN 10: 144221211X ISBN 13: 9781442212114
New Paperback Quantity Available: 1
Seller:
Ergodebooks
(RICHMOND, TX, U.S.A.)
Rating
[?]

Book Description Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2012. Paperback. Condition: New. 1. Seller Inventory # DADAX144221211X

More information about this seller | Contact this seller

Buy New
US$ 31.38
Convert Currency

Add to Basket

Shipping: US$ 4.99
Within U.S.A.
Destination, Rates & Speeds

3.

Lichtman, Allan J.
Published by Rowman & Littlefield Publisher (2012)
ISBN 10: 144221211X ISBN 13: 9781442212114
New Paperback Quantity Available: 2
Seller:
Murray Media
(North Miami Beach, FL, U.S.A.)
Rating
[?]

Book Description Rowman & Littlefield Publisher, 2012. Paperback. Condition: New. Never used!. Seller Inventory # P11144221211X

More information about this seller | Contact this seller

Buy New
US$ 38.70
Convert Currency

Add to Basket

Shipping: FREE
Within U.S.A.
Destination, Rates & Speeds

4.

Lichtman, Allan J.
Published by Rowman & Littlefield Pub Inc (2012)
ISBN 10: 144221211X ISBN 13: 9781442212114
New Paperback Quantity Available: 1
Seller:
Revaluation Books
(Exeter, United Kingdom)
Rating
[?]

Book Description Rowman & Littlefield Pub Inc, 2012. Paperback. Condition: Brand New. 2012 edition edition. 226 pages. 9.00x6.00x0.75 inches. In Stock. Seller Inventory # 144221211X

More information about this seller | Contact this seller

Buy New
US$ 38.96
Convert Currency

Add to Basket

Shipping: US$ 8.05
From United Kingdom to U.S.A.
Destination, Rates & Speeds