Stock Analysis in the Twenty-First Century and Beyond

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9781499049060: Stock Analysis in the Twenty-First Century and Beyond
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For years financial analysts have struggled with the fact that practically all the financial measures used to analyze corporate performance lack predictive power when it comes to forecasting the market performance of the company s stock Numerous academic studies have documented and reported this lack of predictability Correlation coefficients close to zero have been reported for the relationship between stock market performance and such critical financial measures as earnings growth sales growth price earnings ratio return on equity intrinsic value models based on discounted cash flow or dividends and many more It is this disconnect between traditional financial measures and the performance of stocks in the marketplace that has led to the now famous efficient market hypothesis the cornerstone of modern portfolio theory To accept the idea that the future performance of stocks is unpredictable is to say that nothing a company does will affect the future performance of its stock in the market and that is absurd It would be more accurate to say that everything a company does will affect the future performance of its stock in the market The problem with this statement is that it makes the forecasting of future stock performance so complex that it removes it from the realm of human solution

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Thomas Berghage is cofounder and CEO of NeuWorld Financial, a San Diego-based money management firm. A naval officer for twenty-four years, Commander Berghage was a member of an elite group of navy psychologists working on advanced military systems. Upon retiring from the navy, Mr. Berghage joined the financial community in San Diego. He is a past president of the CFA Society of San Diego and has served on its board of directors in various capacities. He has an undergraduate degree from Minnesota State University, Mankato, an MA degree in research psychology from Western Michigan University, and an MBA degree from Central Michigan University and has completed all course work for a PhD at the University of Louisville. Prior to establishing NeuWorld Financial, Berghage was vice president/director of research of two West Coast regional brokerage firms. He also served two years as an independent consultant to Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Berghage has written more than twenty scientific journal articles, thirty technical reports, and three books: Perception and Performance Underwater, Decompression Theory, and Beyond Human Comprehension: The Limits of Human Security Analysis. He has also served on the editorial board of the Journal of Undersea Medicine and contributed to the National Geographic book on exploring the deep frontier. His books have been translated into several foreign languages, and he is widely recognized for his original contributions in the field of human performance and undersea exploration. Commander Berghage has served as an invited lecturer and presented numerous papers both here and in Europe. Since entering the world of finance, Berghage has continued writing and has published numerous corporate evaluation reports and several articles in Artificial Intelligence in Finance. He has presented his work at the Institutional Investor Institute and many CFA Society chapters around the world.

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