Heaven and Earth: Global Warming, the Missing Science - Softcover

Plimer, Ian

Softcover

ISBN 10: 1589794729 ISBN 13: 9781589794726

Publisher: Taylor Trade Publishing, 2009

Synopsis

Climate, sea level, and ice sheets have always changed, and the changes observed today are less than those of the past. Climate changes are cyclical and are driven by the Earth’s position in the galaxy, the sun, wobbles in the Earth’s orbit, ocean currents, and plate tectonics. In previous times, atmospheric carbon dioxide was far higher than at present but did not drive climate change. No runaway greenhouse effect or acid oceans occurred during times of excessively high carbon dioxide. During past glaciations, carbon dioxide was higher than it is today. The non-scientific popular political view is that humans change climate. Do we have reason for concern about possible human-induced climate change?
This book’s 504 pages and over 2,300 references to peer-reviewed scientific literature and other authoritative sources engagingly synthesize what we know about the sun, earth, ice, water, and air. Importantly, in a parallel to his 1994 book challenging “creation science,” Telling Lies for God, Ian Plimer describes Al Gore’s book and movie An Inconvenient Truth as long on scientific “misrepresentations.” “Trying to deal with these misrepresentations is somewhat like trying to argue with creationists,” he writes, “who misquote, concoct evidence, quote out of context, ignore contrary evidence, and create evidence ex nihilo.”

About this title

About the Author

Ian Plimer, twice winner of Australia’s highest scientific honor, the Eureka Prize, is professor in the School of Earth and Environmental Sciences at The University of Adelaide and is author of six other books written for the general public in addition to more than 120 scientific papers.

Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.

Heaven and Earth Global Warming The Missing Science

By Ian Pilmer

Rowman & Littlefield Publishers Inc.

Copyright © 2009 Ian Pilmer
All right reserved.
ISBN: 978-1-58979-472-6

Chapter One

INTRODUCTION

We are all environmentalists. Some of us underpin our environmentalism with political and romantic idealism, others underpin it with emotion, others have a religious view of the environment, some underpin their environmental view with economic pragmatism and many, like me, try to acquire an integrated scientific understanding of the environment. An integrated scientific view involves a holistic view of the Earth and considers life, ice sheets, oceans, atmosphere, rocks and extraterrestrial phenomena which influence our planet. This is what is attempted in this book. I look at climate over geological, archaeological, historical and modern time. Geology is about time, changes to our environment over time and the evolution of our planet. Geology is the only way to integrate all aspects of the environment. In this book I look at what history tells us about past climate and how the Sun, the Earth, ice, water and air affect climate. In the last chapter, I give some personal views.

Past climate changes, sea level changes and catastrophes are written in stone. Time is a beautiful but misunderstood four-letter word. Most of us can't fathom the huge numbers that geologists and astronomers use, hence most of the community has little knowledge of geology. History and archaeology are rarely integrated with natural geological events. There is little or no geological, archaeological and historical input into discussions about climate change.

It is little wonder then that catastrophist views of the future of the planet fall on fertile pastures. The history of time shows us that depopulation, social disruption, extinctions, disease and catastrophic droughts take place in cold times and life blossoms and economies boom in warm times.

Planet Earth is dynamic. It always changes and evolves. It is currently in an ice age that started 37 million years ago.

Climate

Climate has always changed. It always has and always will. Sea level has always changed. Ice sheets come and go. Life always changes. Extinctions of life are normal. Planet Earth is dynamic and evolving. Climate changes are cyclical and random. Through the eyes of a geologist, I would be really concerned if there were no change to Earth over time. In the light of large rapid natural climate changes, just how much do humans really change climate?

The Earth's climate is driven by the receipt and redistribution of solar energy. Without this, there would be no life on Earth. Despite well- documented linkages between climate and solar activity, the Sun tends to be brushed aside as the driver of climate on Earth in place of a trace gas (carbon dioxide - C[O.sub.2]), most of which derives from natural processes. The C[O.sub.2] in the atmosphere is only 0.001% of the total C[O.sub.2] held in the oceans, surface rocks, air, soils and life.

Although we are in one of the many warm periods1 between glacial stages in the current ice age, there is a significant amount of ice remaining in the polar regions. Polar ice has been present for less than 20% of geological time, life on Earth for more than 80% of time and liquid water on Earth for 90% of time. Planet Earth is a warm wet volcanic greenhouse planet, which is recovering from glacial times and is naturally warming. Cooling has also occurred in the current interglacial times. Earth has warmed and cooled on all time scales, whether they be geological, archaeological, historical or within our own lifetime. The key questions are: How much of this warming can be attributed to human activity?

If we humans are warming the planet now, how do we explain alternating cool and warm periods during the current post-glacial warming?

Before we can hope to understand present climate change, we must understand how climate has changed in the past. We know that there have been past climate changes which have been extreme and rapid yet we do not understand all the drivers of these past climate changes. Although we know that there are a large number of variables that influence climate, there are probably variables that have not yet been discovered. Some of the known variables have a huge effect on climate, others have a slight effect, but combinations can have an unpredictable effect.

We cannot view planet Earth as a simple scientific experiment where, by changing one variable, we can isolate another variable.

Calculations on supercomputers, as powerful as they may be, are a far cry from the complexity of the planet Earth, where the atmosphere is influenced by processes that occur deep within the Earth, in the oceans, in the atmosphere, in the Sun and in the cosmos. To reduce modern climate change to one variable (C[O.sub.2]) or, more correctly, a small proportion of one variable (i.e. human-produced C[O.sub.2]) is not science, especially as it requires abandoning all we know about planet Earth, the Sun and the cosmos. Such models fail.

The history of temperature change over time is related to the shape of continents, the shape of the sea floor, the pulling apart of the crust, the stitching back together of the crust, the opening and closing of sea ways, changes in the Earth's orbit, changes in solar energy, supernoval eruptions, comet dust, impacts by comets and asteroids, volcanic activity, bacteria, soil formation, sedimentation, ocean currents and the chemistry of air. If we humans, in a fit of ego, think we can change these normal planetary processes, then we need stronger medication.

If we look at the history of C[O.sub.2] over time, we see the atmospheric C[O.sub.2] content has been far higher than at present for most of time. Furthermore, atmospheric C[O.sub.2] follows temperature rise - it does not create a temperature rise. To argue that human emissions of C[O.sub.2] are forcing global warming requires all the known, and possibly chaotic, mechanisms of natural global warming to be critically analysed and dismissed. This has not even been attempted. To argue that we humans can differentiate between human-induced climate changes and natural climate changes is nave. To argue that natural climate changes are slow and small is contrary to evidence. The slogan "Stop climate change" is a very public advertisement of absolute total ignorance as it is not cognisant of history, archaeology, geology, astronomy, ocean sciences, atmospheric sciences and the life sciences.

Humans can change the weather. The "urban heat island" effect shows that the concentration of roads, concrete, buildings and machinery in towns of more than 1000 inhabitants creates a warmer setting than in a rural setting. In Europe, we see a "winter weekend effect" where cooler wetter weather probably results from human activity. These weather changes do not necessarily mean that humans change climate.

Carbon dioxide and pollution

Pollution shortens your life. However, C[O.sub.2] is not a pollutant. Global warming and a high C[O.sub.2] content bring prosperity and lengthen your life. Carbon dioxide is plant food, is necessary for life, and without C[O.sub.2] there would be no complex life on Earth. In some parts of the world, polluting smogs are common. They currently derive from backyard brickworks, small dirty smelters and furnaces, power stations using high sulphur-high ash coals, forest clearing fires, bush and grass fires and millions of small obsolete and dirty wood, charcoal and coal stoves, heaters, boilers and furnaces. Millions of coal fires caused similar smogs in England up until the 1950s.

The Kyoto Protocol is a treaty to regulate C[O.sub.2], methane, nitrous and other nitrogen oxides, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride. It cannot be a treaty to regulate greenhouse gases, because water ([H.sub.2]O) vapour, the main greenhouse gas, is not included. Car exhaust gases consist of harmless gases (C[O.sub.2], nitrogen, [H.sub.2]O vapour), pollutants (carbon monoxide, volatile organic compounds, nitric oxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide and PM-10 [very small particulate matter]). A car's catalytic converter converts some 95% of these pollutants into [H.sub.2]O and C[O.sub.2]. Smog consists of ozone (formed from the photochemical reaction of nitrogen oxides with hydrocarbons), sulphur dioxide and PM-10. Smog can kill people, plants and animals. The open combustion of poor quality carbon fuels produces soot, smoke, ash, unburnt fuel and chemicals containing sulphur, chlorine, nitrogen, fluorine and metals. In confined unventilated places, open fires produce poisonous carbon monoxide. At present, China emits more sulphur dioxide than any other country in the world and this chokes people, causes acid rain, damages life and destroys buildings. The "Asian Brown Cloud" covers an area as large as Australia, obscuring the Sun in some polluted Asian cities. It has a profound effect on human health. At times, it drifts right across the Pacific Ocean and covers the Northern Hemisphere. These smogs are not due to C[O.sub.2], which is invisible. Darker soot falling on snow and ice allows it to absorb more solar energy and may contribute to more rapid melting of snow and ice.

The Western world was bathed in atmospheric pollution half a century ago. The smoke pollution from 1860 to 1960 of London, Manchester and Pittsburgh was far greater than that of Beijing today. Charles Dickens called the notorious pea souper fogs of London "London particular", and Edward I passed a law in 1272 AD trying to get rid of them. London was called the "big smoke" because that's exactly what it was. Little sunshine could penetrate the atmosphere. Children developed rickets from the lack of sunshine, plants and animals died and lung disease was widespread. The smog was commonly so dense that bus drivers could not see the kerb and a passenger had to walk along the edge of the road with a light to lead the way. Trains had difficulty running as drivers could not see the signals, and detonators had to be placed on rail tracks to warn of potential dangers. The Black Fog of 1952, triggered by a temperature inversion over London, reduced visibility to 10 centimetres and 4000 Londoners died of respiratory problems caused by sulphur dioxide. The Clean Air Act of 1956 prevented the use of open fires of coal and wood in big cities. It was reticulated cheap coal-fired and nuclear reactor electricity that stopped pollution in Britain. The same will probably happen in Asia.

The public have rightfully become less tolerant of pollution and much progress has been made to clean up the Western world. Governments, the media and many people are of the view that C[O.sub.2] is the cause of climate change, is of human origin and is a pollutant. It would seem to the layman that there is no longer any need for scientific debate about climate change.

There has never been a transparent public debate. The time is now.

The science of climate

Science is married to evidence derived from observation, measurement and experiment. Evidence is fraught with healthy uncertainties and scientists argue about the methods, accuracy, repeatability and veracity of data collection. If the data can be validated, then this body of new evidence awaits explanation. The explanation is called a scientific theory. This scientific theory must be abandoned or modified if the evidence is not repeatable or if the evidence is not coherent with previously validated evidence. With new evidence, theories are abandoned or refined. A scientific hypothesis tests a concept by the collection and analysis of evidence. Hypotheses are invalidated by just one item of contrary evidence, no matter how much confirming evidence is present. Science progresses by abandoning theories and hypotheses and creating new explanations for validated evidence.

Most scientists are anarchistic, bow to no authority and construct conclusions based on evidence. These conclusions change with more evidence. Science is not dogmatic and the science of any phenomenon is never settled. Matters of science cannot be resolved by authority or consensus. Scientific evidence is unrelated to politics, ideology, popular paradigms, worldviews, fads, ethics, morality, religion and culture. It matters not whether one is from Canada, Chad or Chile, the scientific measurement for the speed of light is about 299,792.5 kilometres per second. If you are Buddhist, Baha'i or Baptist, the speed of light is still about 299,792.5 kilometres per second. If it is dark, the speed of light is still about 299,792.5 kilometres per second.

The level of scientific acceptance of human-induced global warming is misrepresented. Furthermore, the claim by some scientists that the threat of human-induced global warming is 90% certain (or even 99%) is a figure of speech reflecting the speaker's commitment to the belief. It has no mathematical or evidential basis. It is comparable to 100% certainty professed by religious devotees that theirs is the one and only true faith. My experience of dealing with blindingly obvious arguments against creation "science" was that data and logic were treated with anger, rejection and hostility. Scientific arguments were never addressed. With some rabid environmentalists, human-induced global warming has evolved into a similar religious belief system. This, I argue in the last chapter of this book, is an urban atheistic religion disconnected from Nature and it evolved to fill a yawning spiritual vacuum in the Western world. Contrary scientific data and conclusions are greeted with anger, rejection and hostility. As more contrary data is aired, the defence of the indefensible produces grimmer and grimmer future climate scenarios. The scientific arguments are not addressed. These are the characteristics of a fundamentalist religion.

Aristotle established a general principle of scientific enquiry: "First we must seek the fact, then seek to explain."

The scientific method is now popularly conceptualised that the science on global warming is settled as a process where authorities balance volumes of opinions. That's it. A phenomenon is now scientifically proven because various authorities and some scientists say so. Evidence now no longer matters. And any contrary work published in peer-reviewed journals is just ignored. We are told that the science on human-induced global warming is settled. We have not advanced much since Galileo's spot of bother on 22 June 1633.

Climate science lacks scientific discipline. Studies of the Earth's atmosphere tell us nothing about future climate. An understanding of climate requires an amalgamation of astronomy, solar physics, geology, geochronology, geochemistry, sedimentology, tectonics, palaeontology, palaeoecology, glaciology, climatology, meteorology, oceanography, ecology, archaeology and history. This is what is attempted in this book.

At times, primary scientific evidence is manipulated and simplified by computer models. The extensive reliance by global warmers on computer models impresses those with little scientific training. However, the significant manipulation of the source data and the lack of use of many known variables create uncertain outputs. Furthermore, scientific data yet to be discovered cannot be used in a model. It is very easy for the modeller to produce the predestined outcome before the model can be run. This is a common flaw of mathematical modelling. A model is not real. Models are not evidence. Models with simulations, projections and predictions prove nothing. All a model shows is something about the model itself and the modellers, normally their limitations. As the Talmud states: "We do not see things as they are. We see them as we are."

(Continues...)

Excerpted from Heaven and Earth Global Warming The Missing Scienceby Ian Pilmer Copyright © 2009 by Ian Pilmer. Excerpted by permission.
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Edition details

• Publisher: Taylor Trade Publishing
• Publication date: 2009
• Language: English
• ISBN 10: 1589794729
• ISBN 13: 9781589794726
• Binding: Paperback
• Number of pages: 504