The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't

3.96 avg rating
( 30,219 ratings by Goodreads )
 
9781594204111: The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't

"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." —Rachel Maddow, author of Drift

Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com.

Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.

In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science.

Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.

"synopsis" may belong to another edition of this title.

Review:

Amazon Best Books of the Month, September 2012: People love statistics. Statistics, however, do not always love them back. The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver's brilliant and elegant tour of the modern science-slash-art of forecasting, shows what happens when Big Data meets human nature. Baseball, weather forecasting, earthquake prediction, economics, and polling: In all of these areas, Silver finds predictions gone bad thanks to biases, vested interests, and overconfidence. But he also shows where sophisticated forecasters have gotten it right (and occasionally been ignored to boot). In today's metrics-saturated world, Silver's book is a timely and readable reminder that statistics are only as good as the people who wield them. --Darryl Campbell

About the Author:

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com.

"About this title" may belong to another edition of this title.

Top Search Results from the AbeBooks Marketplace

1.

Silver, Nate
Published by Penguin Press (2012)
ISBN 10: 159420411X ISBN 13: 9781594204111
New Hardcover Quantity Available: 1
Seller
Dionysos Books
(Arabi, LA, U.S.A.)
Rating
[?]

Book Description Penguin Press, 2012. Hardcover. Book Condition: New. New item. May have light shelf wear. Bookseller Inventory # 161224010

More Information About This Seller | Ask Bookseller a Question

Buy New
US$ 12.08
Convert Currency

Add to Basket

Shipping: FREE
Within U.S.A.
Destination, Rates & Speeds

2.

Silver, Nate
Published by Penguin Press 2012-09-27 (2012)
ISBN 10: 159420411X ISBN 13: 9781594204111
New Hardcover Quantity Available: 7
Seller
BookOutlet
(Thorold, ON, Canada)
Rating
[?]

Book Description Penguin Press 2012-09-27, 2012. Hardcover. Book Condition: New. Hardcover. Publisher overstock, may contain remainder mark on edge. Bookseller Inventory # 9781594204111B

More Information About This Seller | Ask Bookseller a Question

Buy New
US$ 10.81
Convert Currency

Add to Basket

Shipping: US$ 6.00
From Canada to U.S.A.
Destination, Rates & Speeds

3.

Nate Silver
ISBN 10: 159420411X ISBN 13: 9781594204111
New Quantity Available: > 20
Seller
BWB
(Valley Stream, NY, U.S.A.)
Rating
[?]

Book Description Book Condition: New. Depending on your location, this item may ship from the US or UK. Bookseller Inventory # 97815942041110000000

More Information About This Seller | Ask Bookseller a Question

Buy New
US$ 18.56
Convert Currency

Add to Basket

Shipping: FREE
Within U.S.A.
Destination, Rates & Speeds

4.

Nate Silver
Published by Penguin Press (2012)
ISBN 10: 159420411X ISBN 13: 9781594204111
New Hardcover Quantity Available: 1
Seller
Irish Booksellers
(Rumford, ME, U.S.A.)
Rating
[?]

Book Description Penguin Press, 2012. Hardcover. Book Condition: New. book. Bookseller Inventory # 159420411X

More Information About This Seller | Ask Bookseller a Question

Buy New
US$ 18.66
Convert Currency

Add to Basket

Shipping: FREE
Within U.S.A.
Destination, Rates & Speeds

5.

Silver, Nate (Author)
Published by Penguin Random House
ISBN 10: 159420411X ISBN 13: 9781594204111
New Quantity Available: > 20
Seller
INDOO
(Avenel, NJ, U.S.A.)
Rating
[?]

Book Description Penguin Random House. Book Condition: New. Brand New. Bookseller Inventory # 159420411X

More Information About This Seller | Ask Bookseller a Question

Buy New
US$ 17.14
Convert Currency

Add to Basket

Shipping: US$ 3.50
Within U.S.A.
Destination, Rates & Speeds

6.

Silver, Nate
ISBN 10: 159420411X ISBN 13: 9781594204111
New Quantity Available: 7
Seller
Pbshop
(Wood Dale, IL, U.S.A.)
Rating
[?]

Book Description 2012. HRD. Book Condition: New. New Book.Shipped from US within 10 to 14 business days. Established seller since 2000. Bookseller Inventory # IB-9781594204111

More Information About This Seller | Ask Bookseller a Question

Buy New
US$ 16.73
Convert Currency

Add to Basket

Shipping: US$ 3.99
Within U.S.A.
Destination, Rates & Speeds

7.

Silver, Nate
ISBN 10: 159420411X ISBN 13: 9781594204111
New Quantity Available: 5
Seller
Paperbackshop-US
(Wood Dale, IL, U.S.A.)
Rating
[?]

Book Description 2012. HRD. Book Condition: New. New Book. Shipped from US within 10 to 14 business days. Established seller since 2000. Bookseller Inventory # KB-9781594204111

More Information About This Seller | Ask Bookseller a Question

Buy New
US$ 16.88
Convert Currency

Add to Basket

Shipping: US$ 3.99
Within U.S.A.
Destination, Rates & Speeds

8.

Silver, Nate
ISBN 10: 159420411X ISBN 13: 9781594204111
New Hardcover Quantity Available: 15
Seller
BargainBookStores
(Grand Rapids, MI, U.S.A.)
Rating
[?]

Book Description Hardcover. Book Condition: New. Bookseller Inventory # 5546232

More Information About This Seller | Ask Bookseller a Question

Buy New
US$ 17.55
Convert Currency

Add to Basket

Shipping: US$ 3.99
Within U.S.A.
Destination, Rates & Speeds

9.

Silver, Nate
Published by Penguin Press (2012)
ISBN 10: 159420411X ISBN 13: 9781594204111
New Hardcover Quantity Available: 2
Seller
Murray Media
(North Miami Beach, FL, U.S.A.)
Rating
[?]

Book Description Penguin Press, 2012. Hardcover. Book Condition: New. Bookseller Inventory # 159420411X

More Information About This Seller | Ask Bookseller a Question

Buy New
US$ 20.78
Convert Currency

Add to Basket

Shipping: US$ 2.99
Within U.S.A.
Destination, Rates & Speeds

10.

Silver, Nate
Published by Penguin Press
ISBN 10: 159420411X ISBN 13: 9781594204111
New Hardcover Quantity Available: > 20
Seller
Mediaoutlet12345
(Springfield, VA, U.S.A.)
Rating
[?]

Book Description Penguin Press. Hardcover. Book Condition: New. 159420411X *BRAND NEW* Ships Same Day or Next!. Bookseller Inventory # SWATI2132122291

More Information About This Seller | Ask Bookseller a Question

Buy New
US$ 20.08
Convert Currency

Add to Basket

Shipping: US$ 3.99
Within U.S.A.
Destination, Rates & Speeds

There are more copies of this book

View all search results for this book