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Synopsis
Nate Silver, the American statistician who earned acclaim for the accuracy of his 2008 presidential election predictions, describes the 'attitudinal change' by which we can develop better foresight, both at the global level and in our own lives. Studying the different techniques used by hundreds of expert forecasters, he reveals why most predictions fail and uncovers unexpected connections and patterns in areas ranging from the economy and stock markets to the poker table.
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Review
Amazon Best Books of the Month, September 2012: People love statistics. Statistics, however, do not always love them back. The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver's brilliant and elegant tour of the modern science-slash-art of forecasting, shows what happens when Big Data meets human nature. Baseball, weather forecasting, earthquake prediction, economics, and polling: In all of these areas, Silver finds predictions gone bad thanks to biases, vested interests, and overconfidence. But he also shows where sophisticated forecasters have gotten it right (and occasionally been ignored to boot). In today's metrics-saturated world, Silver's book is a timely and readable reminder that statistics are only as good as the people who wield them. --Darryl Campbell
About the Author
Nate Silver is a statistician and political forecaster at The New York Times who became a national sensation in the United States when his predictions during the 2008 presidential election trumped most mainstream polls. He is a contributor to The New York Times Magazine and has appeared as a commentator on CNN and MSNBC. He has spoken at TED and SXSW, and was named one of TIME's 100 Most Influential People in the world.
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- PublisherPenguin Press
- Publication date2012
- ISBN 10 1846147522
- ISBN 13 9781846147524
- BindingHardcover
- LanguageEnglish
- Number of pages534
- Rating
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The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction.
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