The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction

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9781846148163: The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction
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The signal and the noise: the art and science of prediction is a book that explores the method of predicting events, which ones are correct predictions, which are not and how people land on the right predictions. The book is written especially for those who desire to understand how foresight is prevalent in almost every sphere of human lives. The signal and the noise: the art and science of prediction breaks down the various methods and means of prediction into a comprehensive form of patterns, portraying them in a rational and scientific manner. Moreover, the book also explores how we are able to make simple predictions in our everyday lives, for instance, deciding which routes avoid due to traffic when travelling to work. The book also discusses the idea that while we are fairly successful in making small predictions that affect our daily routine, we still somehow fail to foresee the big picture. The author cites the examples of the events of 9/11 and the fukushima disaster to point out the failure in our abilities to foresee such huge events. The book was published by penguin uk in 2012 and is available in paperback. Key features: the book reached the new york times bestseller list for nonfiction and was the #1 best nonfiction book on amazon. Com in 2012. It has been published in eight languages.

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Review:

Amazon Best Books of the Month, September 2012: People love statistics. Statistics, however, do not always love them back. The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver's brilliant and elegant tour of the modern science-slash-art of forecasting, shows what happens when Big Data meets human nature. Baseball, weather forecasting, earthquake prediction, economics, and polling: In all of these areas, Silver finds predictions gone bad thanks to biases, vested interests, and overconfidence. But he also shows where sophisticated forecasters have gotten it right (and occasionally been ignored to boot). In today's metrics-saturated world, Silver's book is a timely and readable reminder that statistics are only as good as the people who wield them. --Darryl Campbell

About the Author:

Nate Silver is a statistician, writer, and founder of "The New York Times "political blog "FiveThirtyEight.com." Silver also developed PECOTA, a system for forecasting baseball performance that was bought by "Baseball Prospectus." He was named one of the world's 100 Most Influential People by "Time" magazine. He lives in Brooklyn, New York.

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Other Popular Editions of the Same Title

9780143125082: The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't

Featured Edition

ISBN 10:  0143125087 ISBN 13:  9780143125082
Publisher: Penguin Books, 2015
Softcover

9781594204111: The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-But Some Don't

Pengui..., 2012
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9780141975658: The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction

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9780143124009: The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Dont(Chinese Edition)

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9781846147524: The Signal and the Noise

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Hardcover

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Book Description Allen Lane / Penguin Books, London, 2012. 1st UK p/b ed.. Paperback octavo, very good condition, corner tips covers & some pages little creased & rubbed, some edgewear. 534 pp. Details the art of using statistics, probability and model-building as applied to prediction and forecasting in real-world situations. Many richly detailed case studies from baseball, elections, climate change, the financial crash, poker, and weather forecasting. An important need is for improved expressions of uncertainty in all statistical statements, reflecting ranges of probable outcomes and not just single "point estimates" like averages. Silver rejects much ideology taught with statistical method in colleges and universities today. The problem he finds is a belief in perfect experimental, survey, or other designs, when data often comes from a variety of sources and idealized modelling assumptions rarely hold true. After Silver successfully called the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election, he was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by Time in 2009. Seller Inventory # 17348

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