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Delphi Method ISBN 13: 9786130292287

Delphi Method - Softcover

 
9786130292287: Delphi Method
Softcover
ISBN 10: 6130292287 ISBN 13: 9786130292287
Publisher: Alphascript Publishing, 2010

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Please note that the content of this book primarily consists of articles available from Wikipedia or other free sources online. The Delphi method is a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts. The experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the experts’ forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel. It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer. Finally, the process is stopped after a pre-defined stop criterion (e.g. number of rounds, achievement of consensus, stability of results) and the mean or median scores of the final rounds determine the results.Delphi is based on the principle that forecasts from a structured group of experts are more accurate than those from unstructured groups or individuals.

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Frederic P. Miller
Published by Alphascript Publishing, 2010
ISBN 10: 6130292287 ISBN 13: 9786130292287
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Taschenbuch. Condition: Neu. This item is printed on demand - it takes 3-4 days longer - Neuware -The Delphi method is a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts. The experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the experts forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel. It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the 'correct' answer. Finally, the process is stopped after a pre-defined stop criterion (e.g. number of rounds, achievement of consensus, stability of results) and the mean or median scores of the final rounds determine the results.Delphi is based on the principle that forecasts from a structured group of experts are more accurate than those from unstructured groups or individuals. 100 pp. Englisch. Seller Inventory # 9786130292287

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