Choosing the Most Likely Hypothesis (Paperback)

Richard Startz

ISBN 10: 1601988982 / ISBN 13: 9781601988980
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Paperback. The author shows why failing to consider the alternative hypothesis often leads to incorrect conclusions,that for most standard econometric estimators, it is not difficult to compute the .Shipping may be from multiple locations in the US or from the UK, depending on stock availability. 84 pages. 0.136. Bookseller Inventory #

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Synopsis: Much of economists' statistical work centers on testing hypotheses in which parameter values are partitioned between a null hypothesis and an alternative hypothesis in order to distinguish two views about the world. Our traditional procedures are based on the probabilities of a test statistic under the null but ignore what the statistics say about the probability of the test statistic under the alternative. Traditional procedures are not intended to provide evidence for the relative probabilities of the null versus alternative hypotheses, but are regularly treated as if they do. Unfortunately, when used to distinguish two views of the world, traditional procedures can lead to wildly misleading inference. In order to correctly distinguish between two views of the world, one needs to report the probabilities of the hypotheses given parameter estimates rather than the probability of the parameter estimates given the hypotheses. Choosing the More Likely Hypothesis shows why failing to consider the alternative hypothesis often leads to incorrect conclusions. It shows that for most standard econometric estimators, it is not difficult to compute the proper probabilities using Bayes theorem. Simple formulas that require only readily available information in standard estimation reports are provided. The author emphasizes that frequentist approaches for deciding between the null and alternative hypothesis are not free of priors. Rather, the usual procedures involve an implicit, unstated prior that is likely to be far from scientifically neutral.

About the Author: RICHARD STARTZ is Castor Professor of Economics at the University of Washington. He was an undergraduate at Yale University and received his PhD from MIT, where he studied under Stanley Fischer and Rudi Dornbusch. He taught at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania before moving on to the University of Washington, and he has taught, while on leave, at the University of California-San Diego, the Stanford Business School, and Princeton. His principal research areas are macroeconomics, econometrics, and the economics of race. In the area of macroeconomics, much of his work has concentrated on the microeconomic underpinnings of macroeconomic theory. His work on race is part of a long-standing collaboration with Shelly Lundberg. http: //www.econ.washington.edu/user/startz

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Title: Choosing the Most Likely Hypothesis (...
Publication Date: 2015
Binding: Paperback
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Book Description Now Publishers Inc, United States, 2014. Paperback. Condition: New. Language: English . Brand New Book ***** Print on Demand *****.Much of economists statistical work centers on testing hypotheses in which parameter values are partitioned between a null hypothesis and an alternative hypothesis in order to distinguish two views about the world. Our traditional procedures are based on the probabilities of a test statistic under the null but ignore what the statistics say about the probability of the test statistic under the alternative. Traditional procedures are not intended to provide evidence for the relative probabilities of the null versus alternative hypotheses, but are regularly treated as if they do. Unfortunately, when used to distinguish two views of the world, traditional procedures can lead to wildly misleading inference. In order to correctly distinguish between two views of the world, one needs to report the probabilities of the hypotheses given parameter estimates rather than the probability of the parameter estimates given the hypotheses. Choosing the More Likely Hypothesis shows why failing to consider the alternative hypothesis often leads to incorrect conclusions. It shows that for most standard econometric estimators, it is not difficult to compute the proper probabilities using Bayes theorem. Simple formulas that require only readily available information in standard estimation reports are provided. The author emphasizes that frequentist approaches for deciding between the null and alternative hypothesis are not free of priors. Rather, the usual procedures involve an implicit, unstated prior that is likely to be far from scientifically neutral. Seller Inventory # AAV9781601988980

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Book Description Now Publishers Inc, United States, 2014. Paperback. Condition: New. Language: English . Brand New Book ***** Print on Demand *****. Much of economists statistical work centers on testing hypotheses in which parameter values are partitioned between a null hypothesis and an alternative hypothesis in order to distinguish two views about the world. Our traditional procedures are based on the probabilities of a test statistic under the null but ignore what the statistics say about the probability of the test statistic under the alternative. Traditional procedures are not intended to provide evidence for the relative probabilities of the null versus alternative hypotheses, but are regularly treated as if they do. Unfortunately, when used to distinguish two views of the world, traditional procedures can lead to wildly misleading inference. In order to correctly distinguish between two views of the world, one needs to report the probabilities of the hypotheses given parameter estimates rather than the probability of the parameter estimates given the hypotheses. Choosing the More Likely Hypothesis shows why failing to consider the alternative hypothesis often leads to incorrect conclusions. It shows that for most standard econometric estimators, it is not difficult to compute the proper probabilities using Bayes theorem. Simple formulas that require only readily available information in standard estimation reports are provided. The author emphasizes that frequentist approaches for deciding between the null and alternative hypothesis are not free of priors. Rather, the usual procedures involve an implicit, unstated prior that is likely to be far from scientifically neutral. Seller Inventory # AAV9781601988980

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Book Description now publishers Inc. Paperback. Condition: New. 70 pages. A monograph that offers a perspective on how economists should choose between hypotheses. This item ships from multiple locations. Your book may arrive from Roseburg,OR, La Vergne,TN. Paperback. Seller Inventory # 9781601988980

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