Models of Doom: A Critique of the Limits to Growth

Jahoda, Marie [Editor]; Pavitt, K. L. R. [Editor]; Cole, H. S. D. [Editor]; Freeman, Christopher [Editor];

Published by Universe Publishing, 1973
ISBN 10: 0876639058 / ISBN 13: 9780876639054
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Synopsis: Hailed by some as an "intellectual bombshell" and decried by others as unprofessional sensationalism, The Limits to Growth has created a stir throughout the world. Dennis L. Meadows, its main author, and his mentor Jay Forrester are MIT system analysts whose work represents the most ambitious attempt so far to bring together forecasts of population growth, pollution, resource depletion, food supply, and industrial output into a general model of the world's future.

Models of Doom, by an interdisciplinary team at Sussex University's Science Policy Research Unit, examines the structure and assumptions of the MIT world models and a preliminary draft of Meadows' technical reports. Based on computer runs, it shows that forecasts of the world's future are very sensitive to a few key assumptions and suggests that the MIT assumptions are unduly pessimistic. Further, the Sussex scientists claim that the MIT methods, data, and predictions are faulty, that their world models--with their built-in Malthusian bias--do not accurately reflect reality.

The second part of the book assesses the models and their assumptions in the context of historical forecasts about economics (including those of Malthus and Keynes), population, the environment, and technology. Here the Sussex scientists criticize the MIT approach for its lack of concern with politics, social structure, and human needs and aspirations. They assert that changing social values, not a part of the MIT computer input, can significantly affect the exponential growth of the world's physical properties. Nevertheless, they agree with Forrester and Meadows about the urgency of the challenge and believe that dealing with foreseeable physical limits and disturbing the fruits of growth equitably will require radical political and social, as well as technological, changes.

Claiming that the Sussex critics have applied "micro reasoning to macro problems," the authors of The Limits to Growth, in "A Response to Sussex," describe and analyze five major areas of disagreement between themselves and the Sussex authors.

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Title: Models of Doom: A Critique of the Limits to ...
Publisher: Universe Publishing
Publication Date: 1973
Binding: Paperback
Book Condition: Used: Very Good

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Book Description Universe Books, New York, NY, 1973. Paperback. Book Condition: Very Good. Text Figures (illustrator). First Edition. (full book description) Universe Books, New York, NY, 1973. 1st PB Edition VG+, Paperback, Size=5."x8", 244pgs(Index). Text Figures. Paper spine label, ink owner name, date inside front cover, o.w. clean, bright & tight. ISBN 0876639058 SELLING WORLDWIDE since 1987. 99% OF OUR BOOKS ARE SHIPPED IN CUSTOM BOXES, WE ALWAYS PACK WITH GREAT CARE!. Book. Bookseller Inventory # CONROY241874I

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Book Description Universe Books c. 1973, NY, 1973. Paperback. Book Condition: Good. Trade Paperback. Binding is a little rubbed, with the color worn from edges. Full length crease on the front cover at the spine. Binding has only very minor soil and is sound. Minor-to-modeerate edge soil/foxing. Pencil underlining and margin notes through p. 41; remainder totext is clean, unworn. ; 7-3/4" Tall, 244pp. PAPER COVERS. Cover is a little lighter than posterboard. SCIENCE. Edited by H. S. D. Cole, Christopher Freeman, Marie Jahonda, and K. L. R. Pavitt with a reply by the authors of THE LIMITS TO GROWTH. "Thirteen essayists asssociated with the Science Policy Research Unit at the University of Sussex set out to examine the influential and provocative approach to the forecasting of the future followed in Jay W. Forrester's WORLD DYNAMCS and later in Dennis L. Meadow's THE LIMITS TO GROWTH. Each essayist has been free to pursue his own line of argument, but the volume as a whole has been carefully planned. Part I deals with the models and seeks to analyse their constituent relationships; Part II attempts to place in perspective both the models and the approaches which they represent. " Index. A Few figures in the text. Bookseller Inventory # 34597

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Editor-Marie Jahoda; Editor-K. L. R. Pavitt; Editor-H. S. D. Cole; Editor-Christopher Freeman
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