Irrational Exuberance - Softcover

Shiller, Robert J.

3.98

8,000 ratings by Goodreads

Softcover

ISBN 10: 0767907183 ISBN 13: 9780767907187

Publisher: Broadway Books, 2001

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With a new Afterword on the current state of the stock market, the ongoing debate over the “new economy,” and the larger implications of “irrational exuberance.”

In this controversial, hard-hitting account of today’s explosive market, Robert J. Shiller, a leading expert on market volatility, evokes Alan Greenspan’s infamous 1996 reference, “irrational exuberance,” to explain the alternately soaring and declining stock market. Shiller’s unconventional yet persuasive argument credits an unprecedented confluence of events with driving stocks to uncharted heights, and he analyzes the structural, cultural, and psychological factors behind these levels of growth not reflected in any other sector of the economy. Now more relevant than ever, this analysis is both chilling and convincing—a must-read for the individual investor, the policy maker, and the investment professional.

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Review:

CNBC, day trading, the Motley Fool, Silicon Investor--not since the 1920s has there been such an intense fascination with the U.S. stock market. For an increasing number of Americans, logging on to Yahoo! Finance is a habit more precious than that morning cup of joe (as thousands of SBUX and YHOO shareholders know too well). Yet while the market continues to go higher, many of us can't get Alan Greenspan's famous line out of our heads. In Irrational Exuberance, Yale economics professor Robert J. Shiller examines this public fascination with stocks and sees a combination of factors that have driven stocks higher, including the rise of the Internet, 401(k) plans, increased coverage by the popular media of financial news, overly optimistic cheerleading by analysts and other pundits, the decline of inflation, and the rise of the mutual fund industry. He writes: "Perceived long-term risk is down.... Emotions and heightened attention to the market create a desire to get into the game. Such is irrational exuberance today in the United States."

By history's yardstick, Shiller believes this market is grossly overvalued, and the factors that have conspired to create and amplify this event--the baby-boom effect, the public infatuation with the Internet, and media interest--will most certainly abate. He fears that too many individuals and institutions have come to view stocks as their only investment vehicle, and that investors should consider looking beyond stocks as a way to diversify and hedge against the inevitable downturn. This is a serious and well-researched book that should read like a Stephen King novel to anyone who has staked his or her future on the market's continued success. --Harry C. Edwards

From the Back Cover:

New York Times Bestseller

"Should be compulsory reading for anybody interested in Wall Street or financially exposed to it."—The Economist

"The national bestseller that revolutionized the way we think about the stock market"
—Robert J. Shiller

“A dose of realism that serious investors will ignore at their peril.”—The Wall Street Journal

One of Business Week’s Ten Best Business Books of 2000

“Irrational Exuberance [is] a dazzling, richly textured, provocative book...by far the most important book about the stock market since Jeremy J. Siegel’s 1994 Stocks for the Long Run, offering a cogent statement of the bears’ view of events to come. Shiller is not merely a bear—he is a grizzly.”
—Business Week

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