Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming, and How to Prevent Them - Hardcover

Bazerman, Max H.; Watkins, Michael D.

Hardcover

ISBN 10: 1591391784 ISBN 13: 9781591391784

Publisher: Harvard Business Review Press, 2004

Synopsis

Most events that catch us by surprise are both predictable and preventable - but we consistently miss (or ignore) the warning signs. This book shows why such predictable surprises put us all at risk, and shows how we can understand, anticipate, and prevent them before disaster strikes. [UNK] There is a universal fear factor surrounding this subject: that society and the workplace are filled with disasters in the making that we could prevent if we only knew what to look for. This book plays on that fear and offers a positive, proactive resolution to it. [UNK] Disasters like 9/11, WorldCom, and the recent bombing in Madrid have been widely covered in the news - and more recently, media have begun to question whether such events could have been prevented. The book draws heavily on such dramatic examples to show that they actually were predictable. [UNK] The book includes many familiar examples of negative surprises in business (ie: dropped stock prices from unexpected earnings) and in society that will resonate with a wide audience - and also provides a framework that can help readers spot red flags and prevent disasters before they happen. Overfishing

About this title

About the Author:

Max Bazerman is a professor at HBS and is a huge name in negotiation and decision-making. He has written classic books on these subjects (Negotiating Rationally, Judgment in Managerial Decision-Making), and his name lends significant credibility to the authors’ argument.

Michael Watkins is a proven author with HBSP and has become a recognized expert on leadership issues. His previous books—Right from the Start (HBSP, 1999) with Dan Ciampa and The First 90 Days (HBSP 2003) have sold over 32,000 and 43,000 copies, respectively to date.

From Booklist:

Bazerman and Watkins, faculty at the Harvard Business School, define predictable surprises as "an event or set of events that take an individual or group by surprise, despite prior awareness of all of the information necessary to anticipate the events and their consequences." They cite as examples the tragedy of 9/11 and Enron's collapse. Insisting theirs is not 20/20 hindsight, they explain how many disasters are preceded by clear warning signals that leaders miss or ignore. Characteristics of predictable surprises include when leaders know a problem exists and that problem does not solve itself and gets worse, the human tendency to maintain the status quo, and the reality of a small vocal minority (special interests) that benefit from inaction. Future predictable surprises include government subsidies, global warming, government's ignoring future financial obligations in medical costs and retirement commitments, and the large obligations airlines have in frequent flyer miles. This is an excellent book for library patrons in both the public and private sectors. Mary Whaley
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About this edition

• Publisher: Harvard Business Review Press
• Publication date: 2004
• ISBN 10: 1591391784
• ISBN 13: 9781591391784
• Binding: Hardcover
• Edition number: 1
• Number of pages: 317