Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

Taleb, Nassim Nicholas

ISBN 10: 159659201X ISBN 13: 9781596592018

Publisher: Gildan Media, 2008

Synopsis

This audiobook is about luck, or more precisely, how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. It is already a landmark work and its title has entered our vocabulary. In its second edition, Fooled by Randomness is now a cornerstone for anyone interested in random outcomes.

Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill, the world of trading, this audiobook is a captivating insight into one of the least understood factors of all our lives. In an entertaining narrative style, the author succeeds in tackling three major intellectual issues: the problem of induction, the survivorship biases, and our genetic unfitness to the modern word. Taleb uses stories and anecdotes to illustrate our overestimation of causality and the heuristics that make us view the world as far more explainable than it actually is.

The audiobook is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: Yogi Berra, the baseball legend; Karl Popper, the philosopher of knowledge; Solon, the ancient world's wisest man; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Ulysses. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life, but who also falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.

But the most recognizable character remains unnamed, the lucky fool in the right place at the right time - the embodiment of the "Survival of the Least Fit". Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru's insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained through chance.

It may be impossible to guard against the vagaries of the Goddess Fortuna, but after listening to Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.

About this title

Review:

If the prescriptions for getting rich that are outlined in books such as The Millionaire Next Door and Rich Dad Poor Dad are successful enough to make the books bestsellers, then one must ask, Why aren't there more millionaires? In Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a professional trader and mathematics professor, examines what randomness means in business and in life and why human beings are so prone to mistake dumb luck for consummate skill. This eccentric and highly personal exploration of the nature of randomness meanders from the court of Croesus and trading rooms in New York and London to Russian roulette, Monte Carlo engines, and the philosophy of Karl Popper. Part of what makes this book so good is Taleb's ability to make seemingly arcane mathematical concepts (at least to this reviewer) entirely relevant in evaluating and understanding everything from the stock market to the success of those millionaires cited in the aforementioned bestsellers. Here's an articulate, wise, and humorous meditation on the nature of success and failure that anyone who wants a little more of the former would do well to consider. Highly recommended. --Harry C. Edwards

About the Author:

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an essayist principally concerned with the problems of uncertainty and knowledge. Taleb's interests lie at the intersection of philosophy, mathematics, finance, literature, and cognitive science but he has stayed extremely close the ground thanks to an uninterrupted two-decade career as a mathematical trader. Specializing in the risks of unpredicted rare events (black swans"), he held senior trading positions in New York and London before founding Empirica LLC, a trading firm and risk research laboratory. Taleb is a fellow at the Courant Institute of Mathematical Science of New York University where he has been teaching a class on the failure of models since 1999. He has an MBA from the Wharton School and a Ph.D. from The University of Paris Dauphine.

About this edition

• Publisher: Gildan Media
• Publication date: 2008
• ISBN 10: 159659201X
• ISBN 13: 9781596592018
• Binding: Audio CD