Selected as one of the "Best Business Books of the Year" by Library Journal, Deflation provides tools for investors to protect their assets and invest profitably in deflationary times, a post-inflation economic environment that few of today's investors have experiencedand even fewer understand. Lively and easy-to-understand, it tells investors how to recognize telltale signs of deflation, discusses the industry sectors that are positioned to outperform the overall market, and reveals 13 deflation-ready investing strategiesincluding low-risk fixed income techniques designed to sustain equity-style total returns.
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Most people associate deflation with the 1930s: depression, unemployment, and a spectacular stock market crash. But A. Gary Shilling doesn't think that deflation is all that bad--in fact, he says, if you're prepared, deflation can be a good thing. In Deflation, Shilling outlines why he thinks we're about to enter a prolonged period of deflation and offers advice for businesses and investors on how best to position themselves and their finances and cope with the specter of falling prices.
Shilling sees several forces feeding the trend toward deflation, including the end of the cold war, reduced government spending, growing surpluses, the widespread adoption of technology, the emergence of the Internet, deregulation, and the recent Asian contagion. He also believes that the stock market is due for a severe correction that "would destroy enough individual wealth to chase consumers out of spending and into a saving spree," thereby slowing demand for goods and services and encouraging deflation even more.
Among the investments that Shilling recommends for deflationary times are treasury coupons and zero-coupon bonds, utilities, and U.S. stocks (after the correction, of course). Given Alan Greenspan's maniacal focus on fighting inflation, it might be difficult to swallow Shilling's deflationary forecast. Nevertheless, Shilling has done his homework, and it shows: he builds a case that's both convincing and easy to read. No one knows for sure what our economic future holds, but any open-minded investor would be prudent to hear Shilling out. --Harry C. EdwardsFrom the Back Cover:
Strategies to Profit and Prosper During the Coming Deflation
Gary Shilling is one of today's most influential economic forecasters. A Forbes columnist, Dr. Shilling is consistently ranked among the leaders by The Wall Street Journal, and was twice voted Wall Street's top economist in Institutional Investor's poll of financial institutions. In Deflation, Dr. Shilling discusses the coming period of deflation, and provides specific investment and business guidelines for sharpening your skills and reshaping your thinkingto prepare for tomorrow's dramatically different economic environment
Praise for Dr. A. Gary Shilling and Deflation:
"Were you to have followed Shilling's advice in the early 1980s, you would have been a full participant in the 15-year bull market in both stocks and bonds that ensued ... his analysis, as usual, deserves careful consideration."
Bruce J. McCowan, Former Chairman, McCowan Associates, Inc.
"In the early 1980s, Shilling was one of the first to raise the possibility of disinflation ... At the time, he was considered extreme, but that's just what happened. Now he's considered extreme once again. We'll see ..."
Terry Savage, Personal Finance Columnist, Chicago Sun Times
"In early 1988, [Shilling] predicted that the 1990s in Japan would be like the 1930s in the United Statesat the time an astonishing forecast. He turned out to be right ..."
Don Bauder, Financial Columnist, San Diego Union-Tribune
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