The Myth of the Rational Market: A History of Risk, Reward, and Delusion on Wall Street - Hardcover

Fox, Justin

Hardcover

ISBN 10: 0060598999 ISBN 13: 9780060598990

Publisher: Harper Business, 2009

Synopsis

“Do we really need yet another book about the financial crisis? Yes, we do—because this one is different….A must-read for anyone who wants to understand the mess we’re in.”
—Paul Krugman, New York Times Book Review

 

“Fox makes business history thrilling.”
—St. Louis Post-Dispatch

 

A lively history of ideas, The Myth of the Rational Market by former Time Magazine economics columnist Justin Fox, describes with insight and wit the rise and fall of the world’s most influential investing idea: the efficient markets theory. Both a New York Times bestseller and Notable Book of the Year—longlisted for the Financial Times Business Book of the Year Award and named one of Library Journal Best Business Books of the Year—The Myth of the Rational Market carries readers from the earliest days of Wall Street to the current financial crisis, debunking the long-held myth that the stock market is always right in the process while intelligently exploring the replacement theory of behavioral economics.

About this title

About the Author

Justin Fox is a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, where he also contributes to Bloomberg Weekend and Bloomberg Businessweek and makes wonky videos that occasionally go viral. He previously served as editorial director of the Harvard Business Review, originated the "Curious Capitalist" column and blog for Time, and was a writer and editor at Fortune. He started out in journalism as farm editor of a small daily paper in California’s San Joaquin Valley, and has been a senior fellow at Harvard Kennedy School and a Young Global Leader of the World Economic Forum. He lives in New York City.

From the Back Cover

Chronicling the rise and fall of the efficient market theory and the century-long making of the modern financial industry, Justin Fox's The Myth of the Rational Market is as much an intellectual whodunit as a cultural history of the perils and possibilities of risk. The book brings to life the people and ideas that forged modern finance and investing, from the formative days of Wall Street through the Great Depression and into the financial calamity of today. It's a tale that features professors who made and lost fortunes, battled fiercely over ideas, beat the house in blackjack, wrote bestselling books, and played major roles on the world stage. It's also a tale of Wall Street's evolution, the power of the market to generate wealth and wreak havoc, and free market capitalism's war with itself.

The efficient market hypothesis—long part of academic folklore but codified in the 1960s at the University of Chicago—has evolved into a powerful myth. It has been the maker and loser of fortunes, the driver of trillions of dollars, the inspiration for index funds and vast new derivatives markets, and the guidepost for thousands of careers. The theory holds that the market is always right, and that the decisions of millions of rational investors, all acting on information to outsmart one another, always provide the best judge of a stock's value. That myth is crumbling.

Celebrated journalist and columnist Fox introduces a new wave of economists and scholars who no longer teach that investors are rational or that the markets are always right. Many of them now agree with Yale professor Robert Shiller that the efficient markets theory “represents one of the most remarkable errors in the history of economic thought.” Today the theory has given way to counterintuitive hypotheses about human behavior, psychological models of decision making, and the irrationality of the markets. Investors overreact, underreact, and make irrational decisions based on imperfect data. In his landmark treatment of the history of the world's markets, Fox uncovers the new ideas that may come to drive the market in the century ahead.

Reviews

From The Washington Post's Book World/washingtonpost.com The upside of the current Great Recession is that it could drive a stake through the heart of the academic nostrum known as the efficient-market hypothesis. This theory holds that stock and bond markets are nearly perfect -- even during such crazes as the dot-com mania -- and that prices on the exchanges instantly and accurately reflect the available information about publicly traded securities. After the market crash of 1987, Yale University economist Robert Shiller called that belief "the most remarkable error in the history of economic theory." He could have said "most harmful error" as well. Yet it lived on and contributed mightily to the mortgage bust. One presumes from the title of Justin Fox's "The Myth of the Rational Market" that he has come to bury, not to praise. And certainly, the opportunity for such an undertaking is rich. Proceeding from the assumption that economic actors are unerringly rational, the theory's disciples have endowed market prices with the wisdom of every moment. Thus, at 2 p.m. on a Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average reflects the accumulated financial knowledge of civilization, and equally so at 2 on Thursday -- even if the market has moved hundreds of points in the interim. How did this faith in the supremacy of market group-think do us harm? For one, as the dot-com and other manias demonstrated, the crowd occasionally gets it wrong. The mistaken faith in markets turned regulators into fawning groupies. Notably, former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan doubted that he or anyone else could detect -- or regulate -- a bubble in advance. The power of the doctrine was its grand design: the comforting notion that the financial universe adhered to absolute laws. But that was also its flaw. Prices couldn't be wrong; if they were, someone would seek to profit from the error and correct it. The illustrative joke was of two economists who spot a $10 bill on the ground. One stoops to pick it up, whereupon the other interjects, "Don't. If it were really $10, it wouldn't be there anymore." Theorists such as Eugene Fama decreed that if prices are unforeseeable, then the future direction of the market is random. And if the market is truly random, prices should follow what mathematicians call a bell-curve distribution. In nature, this works. We don't know whether your neighbor will be tall or short, but we can predict, with pretty close approximation, how many very tall people will live in your town. In nature, extreme results such as a village of seven-footers will never occur. Fox tells the story of how financial engineers assumed that markets would behave the same way, with generally predictable variances in prices. In particular, the theory of option pricing, the cornerstone of modern finance, has built into it the assumption that prices are random. The theory was devised by Fischer Black, Myron Scholes and Robert Merton. The last two won the Nobel Prize in 1997 and were partners in Long-Term Capital Management, the hedge fund that blew up in 1998. What happened to LTCM? It turned out that in financial markets, extreme events do happen. People get emotional and decide to buy (or sell) in unison. All of LTCM's trades went sour simultaneously. Nonetheless, the modelers kept at it. Rating agencies assumed that subprime mortgagees would behave in random fashion -- large numbers of people would never default at the same time, right? (Oops.) Fox, a business columnist for Time, spins a fascinating historical narrative, beginning with economist Irving Fisher's paean to markets in, alas, 1929. Postwar economists such as Paul Samuelson noticed that most investment pros do not beat the averages. This led to the one positive contribution of the efficient-market hypothesis: Jack Bogle's invention of index funds, which mimic the performance of the stock market as a whole and keep ordinary people from wasting their money trying to beat it. Fox recognizes that true believers in the market's efficiency suffered from a "blinkered" mindset and "tunnel vision." Yet I think he lets them off too easily. He laments (as if it were necessary) the lack of any alternative "grand new theory" and finds that the debate has resulted in a "muddle." Fox concludes, "If you do come up with an idea for beating the market, you need a model that explains why everybody else isn't already doing the same thing." Not necessarily. Markets aren't physics. Maybe no one model explains them. The emerging school of behavioral finance fills in many of the gaps left by the efficient marketers. Behavioral finance, which Fox discusses at length, holds that financial man -- far from the perfect, mechanical trader depicted in textbooks -- is a rather neurotic fellow. He follows the crowd, fails to plan ahead and often makes mistakes. To think that his every price is perfect is a remarkable error indeed.
Copyright 2009, The Washington Post. All Rights Reserved.

Starred Review. At the core of the current financial crisis has been the widely held assumption that markets behave rationally. Fox, Time magazine editor-at-large, isn't the first to bring scrutiny—or censure—to the conceit, but his analysis is singularly compelling, and the rare business history that reads like a thriller. Fox leads us on a chronological journey of modern economic theory, featuring the cast of scholars who constructed the 20th- and 21st-century financial landscape, from Irving Fisher to such post-WWII figures as Milton Friedman, Harry Markowitz, Franco Modigliani and Merton Miller, Jack Treynor and William Sharpe. Fox offers a behind-the-scenes glimpse at academia's finest, complete with amusing anecdotes about the players and their theories, and illustrates how our economic behaviors and markets have been shaped by a gradually refined theory holding that the stock market prices are both random and perfectly rational. A must-read for anyone interested in the markets, our economy or government, this dense but spellbinding work brings modern finance and economics to life. (July)
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.

The Myth of the Rational Market

A History of Risk, Reward, and Delusion on Wall StreetBy Justin Fox

Collins Business

Copyright © 2009 Justin Fox
All right reserved.
ISBN: 978-0-06-059899-0

Chapter One

Irving Fisher Loses His Briefcase, and Then His Fortune

The first serious try to impose reason and science upon the market comes in the early decades of the twentieth century. It doesn't work out so well.

It is 1905. A well-dressed man in his late thirties talks intently into a pay phone at Grand Central Depot in New York. Between his legs is a leather valise. The doors of the phone booth are open, and a thief makes off with the bag. It is, given what we know of its owner, of excellent quality. Finding a willing buyer will not be a problem.

The contents of the valise are another matter. Stuffed inside is an almost-completed manuscript that brings together economics, probability theory, and real-world business practice in ways never seen before. It is part economics treatise, part primer on what rational, scientific stock market investing ought to look like. It is a glimpse into Wall Street's distant future.

That science and reason might be applied to the stock exchange was still a radical notion in 1905. "Wall Street and its captains ran the stock market, and they and their friends either owned or controlled the speculative pools," recalled one journalist of the time. "The speculative public hardly had a chance. The right stockholders knew when to buy and sell. The others groped."

Times, though, were changing. Good information about stocks and bonds was getting easier for the "speculative public" to obtain. Corporations had become too big and too interested in respectability to be controlled by just a few cronies. The dark corners of Wall Street were being illuminated. Maybe the investing world was ready for a more scientific approach.

The stolen manuscript was never seen again, but its author, Yale University economics professor Irving Fisher, had a habit of overcoming setbacks that might cause a lesser (or more realistic) individual to despair. As he prepared to set off for college in 1884, his father died of tuberculosis, leaving the undergraduate to support his mother and younger siblings. Just as his academic career began to take off in the late 1890s, Fisher himself came down with TB, which incapacitated him for years. In 1904, finally healthy and working again, he watched as fire consumed the house just north of Yale's campus where he lived with his wife and two children.

And then the theft of his manuscript. Afterward, inured by then to disaster, Fisher went right back to work. He resolved always to close the door when he entered a phone booth, and he rewrote his book, this time making copies of each chapter as he went along. Published in 1906 as The Nature of Capital and Income, it cemented his international reputation among economists. It became, as one biographer wrote, "one of the principal building blocks of all present-day economic theory."

Its impact on Wall Street was less immediately obvious. Stockbrokers and speculators did not rush out to buy the book. There's no evidence that investors began making probability calculations before they bought stocks, as Fisher recommended. But Fisher was at least as persistent as he was lacking in street smarts. His ideas began to have some impact in his lifetime, and after his death in 1947, they took off.

Books directly or indirectly descended from Fisher's work now adorn the desks of hedge fund managers, pension consultants, financial advisers, and do-it-yourself investors. The increasingly dominant quantitative side of the financial world-that strange wonderland of portfolio optimization software, enhanced indexing, asset allocators, credit default swaps, betas, alphas, and "model-derived" valuations-is a territory where Professor Fisher would feel intellectually right at home. He is perhaps not the father, but certainly a father of modern Wall Street.

Hardly anyone calls him that, though. Economists honor Fisher for his theoretical breakthroughs, but outside the discipline his chief claim to lasting fame is the horrendous stock market advice he proffered in the late 1920s. Read almost any history of the years leading up to the great crash of October 1929, and the famous Professor Fisher serves as a sort of idiot Greek chorus, popping up every few pages to assert that stock prices had reached a "permanently high plateau." He wasn't just talking the talk. Fisher blew his entire fortune (acquired through marriage, then increased through entrepreneurial success) in the bear market of late 1929 and the early 1930s.

Fisher's two historical personas-buffoon of the great crash and architect of financial modernity-are not as alien to each other as they might at first appear. In the early years of the twentieth century Fisher outlined a course of rational, scientific behavior for stock market players. In the late 1920s, blinded in part by his own spectacular financial success, he became convinced that America's masses of speculators and investors (not to mention its central bankers) were in fact following his advice. Nothing, therefore, could go wrong. Irving Fisher had succumbed to the myth of the rational market. It is a myth of great power-one that, much of the time, explains reality pretty well. But it is nonetheless a myth, an oversimplification that, when taken too literally, can lead to all sorts of trouble. Fisher was just the first in a line of distinguished scholars who saw reason and scientific order in the market and made fools of themselves on the basis of this conviction. Most of the others came along much later, though. Irving Fisher was ahead of his time.

He was not, however, alone in his advanced thoughts about financial markets. In Paris, mathematics student Louis Bachelier studied the price fluctuations on the Paris Bourse (exchange) in a similar spirit. The result was a doctoral thesis that, when unearthed more than half a century after its completion in 1900, would help to relaunch the study of financial markets.

Bachelier undertook his investigation at a time when scientists had begun to embrace the idea that while there could be no absolute certainty about anything, uncertainty itself could be a powerful tool. Instead of trying to track down the cause of every last jiggling of a molecule or movement of a planet, one could simply assume that the causes were many and randomness the result. "It is thanks to chance-that is to say, thanks to our ignorance, that we can arrive at conclusions," wrote the great French mathematician and physicist Henri Poincar in 1908.

(Continues...)

Excerpted from The Myth of the Rational Marketby Justin Fox Copyright © 2009 by Justin Fox. Excerpted by permission.
All rights reserved. No part of this excerpt may be reproduced or reprinted without permission in writing from the publisher.
Excerpts are provided by Dial-A-Book Inc. solely for the personal use of visitors to this web site.

Edition details

• Publisher: Harper Business
• Publication date: 2009
• Language: English
• ISBN 10: 0060598999
• ISBN 13: 9780060598990
• Binding: Hardcover
• Number of pages: 400