The Coming Collapse of China - Softcover

Gordon G. Chang

Softcover

ISBN 10: 0099445344 ISBN 13: 9780099445340

Publisher: Arrow Books, 2003

Synopsis

The world sees a glorious future for China. Beneath the veneer of modernisation however, it is another story. "The Coming Collapse of China" predicts the imminent implosion of the economy and government of the People' s Republic of China. It is a fully revised and updated edition covering China's new membership of the WTO. The author is a Chinese American lawyer who has lived and worked in China and Hong Kong for over 20 years, bringing first-hand experience and economic expertise to this book.

About this title

Review:

From 1978 through the mid-1990s, China had the fastest-growing economy in the world, and it appeared poised to dominate Asia, and beyond, in the near future. But after focusing on facts rather than theory and looking at the conditions behind the spectacular numbers, Gordon Chang presents the People's Republic as a study in wasted potential: "Peer beneath the surface, and there is a weak China, one that is in long-term decline and even on the verge of collapse. The symptoms of decay are to be seen everywhere." For a nation that has always taken a long view of history, time is quickly running out. Chang believes China has about five years to get its economy in order before it suffers a crippling financial collapse--a timeline he seriously doubts can be met.

By failing to complete its reformation, China has maintained an illusion of progress, Chang explains, but in reality has caused more problems than opportunities for would-be entrepreneurs and foreign investors. Because reform has not been fast enough or comprehensive enough, China is unable to benefit from its modernization or keep up technologically with much of the world. The government's reluctance to get rid of state-owned enterprises has not only rendered China uncompetitive just as it prepares to join the World Trade Organization, but is causing the banks--which were forced to lend money to SOEs--to fail alongside them. Widespread unemployment, corruption within the Communist party, millions of resentful peasants, and a general lack of leadership further threaten stability. The Communist party "knows how to suppress but it no longer has the power to lead," Chang writes, arguing that the party is maintaining control only through the use of brute force and the people's instinct for obedience--popular support that could deteriorate as soon as the economy plunges. Simultaneously, societal ills such as gambling, drugs, and prostitution have become huge problems.

Stuck between Communism and capitalism, "China is drifting, unwilling to go forward as fast as it must and unable to turn back." It is uncertain what will be in the way when the giant finally falls. --Shawn Carkonen

From the Back Cover:

"A compelling account of the rot in China's institutions and the forces at work to end the Communist Party's monopoly on power."
-James A. Dorn, Cato Institute, Washington D.C., co-editor of China's Future: Constructive Partner or Emerging Threat?

"Quite simply the best book I know about China's future. Gordon Chang writes marvelously and knows China well. I hope everyone concerned with that country will pay careful consideration to what he sees ahead."
-Arthur Waldron, Director of Asian Studies, American Enterprise Institute; Lauder Professor of International Relations, University of Pennsylvania

"A sobering look at how the unique Chinese experiment of market reforms under one-party dictatorship could go wrong. The author has combined first-hand experience with painstaking research. The often gloomy picture of the violent clashes between the forces of change and those of reaction is relieved by lively anecdotes and witty storytelling. A tour de force not to be missed."
-Willy Wo-Lap Lam, Senior China Analyst at CNN's Hong Kong office and author of "The Era of Jiang Zemin"

“Damning data and persuasive arguments that should set some Communist knees a-knocking.”
-Kirkus

"Gordon Chang takes us on a vividly observed voyage behind the scenes of China's so-called economic miracle, where it turns out that institutions are shaky, relationships corrupt, and success precarious. Chinese society is seething with unrest, and the ruling party is split. Chang has lived and done business in China for years. He is not afraid of making boldjudgments. When he warns that China's two centuries of troubles are still not over, we had better take notice."
-Andrew J. Nathan, Professor of Political Science, Columbia University; Co-Editor, The Tiananmen Papers

About this edition

• Publisher: Arrow Books
• Publication date: 2003
• ISBN 10: 0099445344
• ISBN 13: 9780099445340
• Binding: Paperback
• Number of pages: 344