Expert judgment is used in response to an enormous diversity of technical problems. The expert is often required to perform a role when other sources, such as measurement, observations, experimentation, or simulation are unavailable or not widely agreed upon. However, many problems are faced in translating expert judgment into reliable and unbiased solutions. With the correct elicitation and analysis techniques, Meyer and Booker show that using expert judgment can be infinitely more reliable and efficient.**The subject of this book is analyzing and eliciting expert judgment for practical applications. The authors provide guidelines for formal elicitation and analysis, with particular reference to methods developed in the field of human cognition and communication. They also outline the principle which proscribes that elicitation and analysis techniques should not be arbitrarily adopted but should always be dependent on the experts and their domain and on the way humans actually think. The book will allow even novice readers to design appropriate methods for their own particular application according to this principle.
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Takes the reader step by step through the techniques of eliciting and analyzing expert judgment, with special attention given to helping the reader develop elicitation methods and tools adaptable to a variety of unique situations and work areas.About the Author:
Dr. Meyer is a cultural anthropologist with the Statistical Sciences Group at Los Alamos National Laboratory. She specializes in the study of scientists, their knowledge, including expert judgment, and multidisciplinary work practices. She currently leads an interdisciplinary team that creates customizable technologies for eliciting, representing, integrating, and analyzing experts' knowledge to support their decision making. In 1999, she received the distinguished performance award from the Laboratory and the R&D 100 Award from R&D Magazine for the reliability methodology PREDICT.
Dr. Booker joined the Statistical Sciences Group at Los Alamos National Laboratory in 1980. Her recent research and development efforts have been in the areas of statistical reliability, information integration methods, and analysis of expert judgment. In 1999, she was elected Fellow of the American Statistical Association and received, in conjunction with Delphi Automotive Systems, the R&D 100 Award for PREDICT. She is coediting the book Fuzzy Logic and Probability Applications, with T. J. Ross and W. J. Parkinson, to be published by SIAM.
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Book Description Academic Press, 1991. Hardcover. Book Condition: New. Bookseller Inventory # SONG0124932304
Book Description Academic Press, 1991. Hardcover. Book Condition: New. Bookseller Inventory # DADAX0124932304
Book Description Book Condition: Brand New. Book Condition: Brand New. Bookseller Inventory # 97801249323021.0