As Morgan Stanley's chief Asia specialist, getting Asia right is Stephen Roach's personal obsession, and this in-depth compilation represents more than 70 of Roach's key research efforts not just on Asia, but also on how the region fits into the broad context of increasingly globalized financial markets. The book argues that the "Asia factor" is not a static concept, but rather one that is constantly changing and evolving. Broken down into five parts–Asia's critical role in globalization; the coming rebalancing of the Chinese economy; a new pan-regional framework for integration and competition; and a frank discussion of the biggest risk to this remarkable transformation–this book will help readers understand and profit from the world's most dynamic region.
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As the most dynamic and rapidly growing region in the world over the past decade, Asia has attained a new level of prosperity. Yet Developing Asia's newfound economic ascendancy remains precarious. As 2008 came to an end, every economy in the region had either slowed sharply or tumbled into outright recession. Far from having the autonomous capacity to "decouple" from weakness elsewhere in the world, export-led Developing Asia had become even more tightly tied to foreign markets than was the case a decade earlier. The once-bright future is now uncertain. Investors, business managers, policymakers, and political leaders all need to dig more deeply to uncover the challenges, opportunities, and risks that lurk in this critical region.
In Stephen Roach on the Next Asia, Morgan Stanley's Asia Chairman offers his views on where the Asian economy has been and where it is going. This collection of essays, written by Roach over the past three years—three of the most tumultuous years in modern economic history—tells how the Asia story has played out to this point and what that saga portends for the future. Roach looks at the global economic crisis and the debate over globalization. He details China's challenges in rebalancing its economy and examines U.S.-China tensions over trade policy. And he analyzes the additional challenges facing Japan, India, and Korea. Drawing insight from what went right and wrong, the author attempts, in a concluding chapter, to paint a picture of what it may take to realize the hopes and dreams of the Asia Century. Macro risk assessment, he reveals, is critical to understanding the forces that will shape the Next Asia.
And the Next Asia is already coming into focus. Consistent with the region's penchant for change, it looks to be very different from the Asia of the past thirty years. The transition from old to new will need to be driven by a major rebalancing of its economy—with export- and investment-led growth giving way to a more balanced macro structure, increasingly supported by internal private consumption. For all those who want to deepen their understanding and capitalize on these changes, Stephen Roach on the Next Asia provides an invaluable guide.
"Stephen Roach's prescient collection of insights and analyses, from his many years in Asia as one of the most experienced decoders of China's political and economic trends, are cogent, valuable, and immensely helpful."
―HENRY A. KISSINGER
PRAISE FOR STEPHEN ROACH ON THE NEXT ASIA
"Stephen Roach's penetrating insights into the linkages between Asia and globalization―past, present, and future―should be required reading for policymakers, economists, and anyone else who has an interest in the future of the world economy."
―JEFFREY E. GARTEN, Professor and former dean, Yale School of Management, and former Undersecretary of Commerce for International Trade, Clinton administration
"If policymakers from the United States and China heed [Roach's] words, the world will be a safer, more prosperous place."
―BILL BRADLEY, former United States Senator
"This book presents a fresh Asian perspective in understanding the root cause of the global financial crisis."
―LIU MINGKANG, Chairman, China Banking Regulatory Commission
"Stephen Roach's articles on Asia give the reader an authoritative and highly readable overview of the many fascinating aspects of Asia's new emergence on the global scene."
―MONTEK AHLUWALIA, Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission, Government of India
"Debate rages over whether Asia has become the new engine of growth in a post-crisis global economy. Stephen Roach challenges this presumption and provides timely insight as to what China and the rest of Asia need to accomplish in order to step into this important role."
―LAURA D'ANDREA TYSON, Professor, Haas School of Business, UC Berkeley, and former chair, White House National Economic Council, Clinton administration
"Roach has enjoyed a ringside seat in Asia through the crisis. The combination of economic and business analysis gives him a unique perspective."
―HOWARD DAVIES, Director, London School of Economics, and former executive chairman, UK Financial Services Authority
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