A Probabilistic Analysis of the Sacco and Vanzetti Evidence - Hardcover

Kadane, Joseph B.; Schum, David A.

9780471141822: A Probabilistic Analysis of the Sacco and Vanzetti Evidence

Hardcover

ISBN 10: 0471141828 ISBN 13: 9780471141822

Publisher: Wiley, 1996

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A Probabilistic Analysis of the Sacco and Vanzetti Evidence is aBayesian analysis of the trial and post-trial evidence in the Saccoand Vanzetti case, based on subjectively determined probabilitiesand assumed relationships among evidential events. It applies theideas of charting evidence and probabilistic assessment to thiscase, which is perhaps the ranking cause celebre in all of Americanlegal history. Modern computation methods applied to inferencenetworks are used to show how the inferential force of evidence ina complicated case can be graded. The authors employ probabilisticassessment to obtain opinions about how influential each group ofevidential items is in reaching a conclusion about the defendants'innocence or guilt.

A Probabilistic Analysis of the Sacco and Vanzetti Evidence holdsparticular interest for statisticians and probabilists in academiaand legal consulting, as well as for the legal community,historians, and behavioral scientists. It combines structural andprobabilistic ideas in the analysis of masses of evidence fromevery recognized logical species of evidence. Twenty-eight chartsshow the chains of reasoning in defense of the relevance ofevidentiary matters and a listing of trial witnesses who providedthe evidence. References include nearly 300 items drawn from thefields of probability theory, history, law, artificialintelligence, psychology, literature, and other areas.

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From the Publisher

A Bayesian analysis of the murder charges against Sacco and Vanzetti based on subjectively determined probabilities and assumed relationships among evidential events. Applies the ideas of charting evidence and probabilistic assessment to this case which is perhaps one of the most controversial in American legal history. Uses modern computation techniques to demonstrate how items of evidence in a complicated case can relate to one another. 28 charts illustrate the chains of reasoning in defense of the relevance of evidentiary matters plus a listing of trial witnesses. References include approximately 300 entries from such fields as probability theory, history, law, artificial intelligence, psychology and literature.

About the Author

JOSEPH B. KADANE is Leonard J. Savage Professor of Statistics and Social Sciences in the Department of Statistics at the Carnegie Mellon University. In 1993 he was cowinner of the Frank Wilcoxon Award. Professor Kadane is the author of Bayesian Methods and Ethics in a Clinical Trial Design and coauthor of Statistics and the Law (Wiley).

DAVID A. SCHUM is Professor of Information Technology and Engineering and Professor of Law at George Mason University. A Fellow of the American Psychological Association, he is the author of Evidential Foundations of Probabilistic Reasoning (Wiley).

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