Why Flip a Coin?: The Art and Science of Good Decisions - Hardcover

Lewis, H. W.

Hardcover

ISBN 10: 0471165972 ISBN 13: 9780471165972

Publisher: Wiley, 1997

Synopsis

"It is rare to come across a book that can truly be called fascinating, but here is one."-New Scientist

Why Flip a Coin?

What's the best way to choose the right spouse? . . . How can I increase my chances of winning the office football pool? . . . By what process should I choose a candidate in the Senate race? . . . Could I possibly make more money playing poker instead of the stock market?

Using examples gleaned from everyday life, noted physicist H. W. Lewis explains what science has discovered about the rules that govern good-and not-so-good-decision making. Full of provocative insights into human psychology and behavior, Why Flip a Coin? will leave you laughing-even as you're learning.

"Should you read this book or not? If you don't read it you will surely miss out on Lewis's flinty wit and sharp sense of irony. The choice is clear. You needn't even flip a coin."-The Sciences

"Lighthearted but far from flippant."-Amazon.com (Science Editor's Recommended Book)

About this title

About the Author

H. W. LEWIS is Professor of Physics, Emeritus at the University of California, Santa Barbara. He received the American Institute of Physics Science Writing Award for his book Technological Risk. He has served on a number of national science advisory committees, including the Defense Science Board and the President's Nuclear Safety Oversight Committee.

From the Back Cover

Why Flip a Coin?

Drawing on a host of research findings and scores of examples—from how to win a war to how to win the office football pool —H. W. Lewis presents a host of brain-teasing problems and amusing scenarios that reveal the clever ways to avoid the chaos and anxiety of decision dilemmas.

Inviting readers to play "The Dating Game," he shows how to take a fateful decision when you don't yet know what all your options are. Telling the classic stories of "The Prisoners' Dilemma" and "The Lady or the Tiger?", he shows how to weigh the intentions of hostile competitors and effectively anticipate their next moves. "The prize for making better decisions than your opponent may be your own survival," he says. "It pays to practice before the stakes get that high."

Like a brilliant detective uncovering the clues to a tricky mystery, Lewis unravels the systematic procedures you can use to separate the threads of options, consequences, probabilities, and preferences that will lead to the optimal choice. He points out the mistakes we so often make when facing a wide variety of decision-making pressures, and shows how to organize your thinking to achieve a clear state of mind when confronting any particular decision.

You'll be amazed as Lewis examines the hidden patterns that profoundly influence legal decisions, the conduct of war, and the course of history itself. He shows how electoral systems can be manipulated to skew the choices and produce unintended results; how the concept of the random walk applies to the stock market; how scientific strategies can be used in gambling; and how understanding standard deviation and regression can lead to better predictions in both personal and professional life.

If you'd like to become a better decision-maker, your decision to read this thoroughly enjoyable book will be among the first in a long series of very good decisions.

How would you decide?

• This is your night at the casino —you've doubled your money and you're still on a roll. Is it time to quit?
• After years of dating, you've met someone close to perfect. Should you stop searching, or hold out for someone even better?
• Your well-diversified mutual fund is performing nicely, but suddenly your broker calls about a hot stock offering. Should you invest?

What are the best ways to approach these and other mind-boggling quandaries? Acclaimed author H. W. Lewis tells you how in this intriguing introduction to the surprising discoveries of "decision science."

"Mr. Lewis takes the reader on an engagingly iconoclastic tour . . . a valuable, clearly written appraisal." —The New York Times Book Review.

"First rate book by a physicist who . . . can write.Who can explain mathematics painlessly. Who is, at times, outrageously funny." —Kirkus Reviews.

From the Inside Flap

Why Flip a Coin? Drawing on a host of research findings and scores of examples—from how to win a war to how to win the office football pool—H. W. Lewis presents a host of brain-teasing problems and amusing scenarios that reveal the clever ways to avoid the chaos and anxiety of decision dilemmas. Inviting readers to play "The Dating Game," he shows how to make a fateful decision when you don’t yet know what all your options are. Telling the classic stories of "The Prisoners’ Dilemma" and "The Lady or the Tiger?", he shows how to weigh the intentions of hostile competitors and effectively anticipate their next moves. "The prize for making better decisions than your opponent may be your own survival," he says. "It pays to practice before the stakes get that high." Like a brilliant detective uncovering the clues to a tricky mystery, Lewis unravels the systematic procedures you can use to separate the threads of options, consequences, probabilities, and preferences that will lead to the optimal choice. He points out the mistakes we so often make when facing a wide variety of decision-making pressures, and shows how to organize your thinking to achieve a clear state of mind when confronting any particular decision. You’ll be amazed as Lewis examines the hidden patterns that profoundly influence legal decisions, the conduct of war, and the course of history itself. He shows how electoral systems can be manipulated to skew the choices and produce unintended results; how the concept of the random walk applies to the stock market; how scientific strategies can be used in gambling; and how understanding standard deviation and regression can lead to better predictions in both personal and professional life. If you’d like to become a better decision-maker, your decision to read this thoroughly enjoyable book will be among the first in a long series of very good decisions.

Edition details

• Publisher: Wiley
• Publication date: 1997
• Language: English
• ISBN 10: 0471165972
• ISBN 13: 9780471165972
• Binding: Hardcover
• Number of pages: 224