Applied Risk Analysis: Moving Beyond Uncertainty in Business (Wiley Finance) - Hardcover

Mun, Johnathan

Hardcover

ISBN 10: 0471478857 ISBN 13: 9780471478850

Publisher: Wiley, 2004

Synopsis

Praise for Applied Risk Analysis
"Once again, Dr. Mun has created a 'must-have, must-read' book for anyone interested in the practical application of risk analysis. Other books speak in academic generalities, or focus on one area of risk application. Applied Risk Analysis gets to the heart of the matter with applications for every area of risk analysis. You have a real option to buy almost any book-you should exercise your option and get this one!"
-Glenn Kautt, MBA, CFP, EA, President and Chairman, Monitor Group, Inc.
"Johnathan Mun's book is a sparkling jewel in my finance library. Mun demonstrates a deep understanding of the underlying mathematical theory in his ability to reduce complex concepts to lucid explanations and applications. For this reason, he's my favorite writer in this field."
-Janet Tavakoli, President, Tavakoli Structured Finance, Inc. and author of Collateralized Debt Obligations & Structured Finance
"Every year the market of managerial books is flooded again and again. This book is different. It puts a valuable tool into the hands of corporate managers who are willing to stand up against uncertainties and risks and are determined to deliver value to shareholder and society, even in rough times. It is a book for the new generation of managers, for whom Corporate America is waiting."
-Dr. Markus Götz Junginger, Managing Partner
IBCOL Consulting AG (Switzerland)
"Dr. Mun breaks through the hyperbole and presents a clear step-by-step approach revealing to readers how quantitative methods and tools can truly make a difference. In short, he teaches you what's relevant and a 'must know.' I highly recommend this book, especially if you want to effectively incorporate the latest technologies into your decision making process for your real world business."
-Dr. Paul W. Finnegan, MD, MBA, Vice President, Commercial Operations and Development, Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
"A must read for product portfolio managers . . . it captures the risk exposure of strategic investments, and provides management with estimates of potential outcomes and options for risk mitigation."
-Rafael E. Gutierrez, Executive Director of Strategic Marketing and Planning, Seagate Technology
"Johnathan Mun has previously published a number of very popular books dealing with different aspects of risk analysis-associated techniques and tools. This last publication puts all the pieces together. The book is really unavoidable for any professional who wants to address risk evaluation following a logical, concrete and conclusive approach."
-Jean Louis Vaysse, Deputy Vice President Marketing, Airbus (France)

About this title

About the Author

Dr. JOHNATHAN MUN is Vice President of Analytics at Decisioneering, Inc., a software, training, and consulting firm specializing in advanced analytics. His duties focus primarily on heading up the development of real options and financial analytics software powered by Crystal Ball. Prior to joining Decisioneering, he was a consulting manager and financial economist in the Valuation Services and Global Financial Services practice of KPMG consulting, and a manager with the Economic Consulting Services practice at KPMG LLP. He holds a PhD in finance and economics, an MBA and MS in management, and a BS in biophysics. Mun is also certified in Financial Risk Management and in Financial Consulting. He is currently a visiting professor in finance, economics, and statistics at various universities, including University of Applied Sciences (Germany), Swiss School of Management (Switzerland), and Golden Gate University (California). Mun is the author of two other books, Real Options Analysis and the Real Options Analysis Course, both published by Wiley. He continues to offer worldwide seminars and lectures on the topics of real options, simulation and risk analysis, and corporate finance.

From the Back Cover

Praise for Applied Risk Analysis

"Once again, Dr. Mun has created a ‘must-have, must-read’ book for anyone interested in the practical application of risk analysis. Other books speak in academic generalities, or focus on one area of risk application. Applied Risk Analysis gets to the heart of the matter with applications for every area of risk analysis. You have a real option to buy almost any book–you should exercise your option and get this one!"
–Glenn Kautt, MBA, CFP, EA, President and Chairman, Monitor Group, Inc.

"Johnathan Mun’s book is a sparkling jewel in my finance library. Mun demonstrates a deep understanding of the underlying mathematical theory in his ability to reduce complex concepts to lucid explanations and applications. For this reason, he’s my favorite writer in this field."
–Janet Tavakoli, President, Tavakoli Structured Finance, Inc. and author of Collateralized Debt Obligations & Structured Finance

"Every year the market of managerial books is flooded again and again. This book is different. It puts a valuable tool into the hands of corporate managers who are willing to stand up against uncertainties and risks and are determined to deliver value to shareholder and society, even in rough times. It is a book for the new generation of managers, for whom Corporate America is waiting."
–Dr. Markus Götz Junginger, Managing Partner
IBCOL Consulting AG (Switzerland)

"Dr. Mun breaks through the hyperbole and presents a clear step-by-step approach revealing to readers how quantitative methods and tools can truly make a difference. In short, he teaches you what's relevant and a ‘must know.’ I highly recommend this book, especially if you want to effectively incorporate the latest technologies into your decision making process for your real world business."
–Dr. Paul W. Finnegan, MD, MBA, Vice President, Commercial Operations and Development, Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

"A must read for product portfolio managers . . . it captures the risk exposure of strategic investments, and provides management with estimates of potential outcomes and options for risk mitigation."
–Rafael E. Gutierrez, Executive Director of Strategic Marketing and Planning, Seagate Technology

"Johnathan Mun has previously published a number of very popular books dealing with different aspects of risk analysis-associated techniques and tools. This last publication puts all the pieces together. The book is really unavoidable for any professional who wants to address risk evaluation following a logical, concrete and conclusive approach."
–Jean Louis Vaysse, Deputy Vice President Marketing, Airbus (France)

From the Inside Flap

Risk analysis is part of any decision-making process, but in the world of business, it can be the difference between falling behind and getting ahead. Without proper risk analysis, a company could lose millions or bypass potential growth opportunities.

Risk was once seen as something that was unpredictable and uncontrollable. but with the evolution of today’s risk analysis tools and theories, this notion has dramatically changed. In Applied Risk Analysis, expert Johnathan Mun explores the different facets of risk within the realms of applied business risk analysis–providing you with an intuitive feel of what risk looks like as well as the different ways of measuring it. Opening with a brief introduction to uncertainty and risk, this comprehensive guide moves on to detail some of the most important aspects of analyzing risk within a business environment.

Applied Risk Analysis will show you how to effectively:

• Identify risk
• Evaluate risk
• Quantify risk
• Predict risk
• Mitigate risk
• Diversify risk
• Manage risk
• Apply risk analysis in a variety of areas–from the pharmaceutical industry to the world of real estate, oil and gas, and banking

Key concepts you’ll become familiar with as you strive to understand the intricacies of applied risk analysis include risk and return, the fundamentals of model building, applying Monte Carlo simulation (using Crystal Ball software), forecasting, time-series and regression analysis, stochastic optimization, and real options analysis. To help solidify your understanding of the topics discussed, Applied Risk Analysis is supported by a companion CD-ROM, which contains an innovative trial version of Crystal Ball software and multiple Excel spreadsheet models. You’ll learn how to quantify the risks associated with different types of business uncertainties through risk analysis and simulation software that only Crystal Ball can provide.

Don’t let the threat of risk blind your business sense. Learn how to analyze risk and make informed decisions that can protect or improve your organization’s top and bottom lines. Through challenging end-of-chapter questions and comprehensive industry spotlights, this unique resource covers all of the essential tools and techniques that you’ll need to conduct proper risk analysis. Combining expert advice and in-depth business cases with cutting-edge analysis software, Applied Risk Analysis will help you understand risk better than ever before.

Edition details

• Publisher: Wiley
• Publication date: 2004
• Language: English
• ISBN 10: 0471478857
• ISBN 13: 9780471478850
• Binding: Hardcover
• Edition number: 1
• Number of pages: 480