Decision Analysis for Management Judgment - Softcover

Goodwin, Paul; Wright, George

Softcover

ISBN 10: 047197496X ISBN 13: 9780471974963

Publisher: Wiley, 1998

Synopsis

This edition integrates the latest decision analysis material from a range of disciplines including OR, Statistics and Psychology. The authors make it accessible to its largest group of potential users: managers and administrators in business and public sector organizations. It shows how difficult decisions can be made with greater insight and confidence and challenges the adequacy of making decisions on the basis of intuition alone.

About this title

From the Back Cover

Decision Analysis for Management Judgment Second Edition In an increasingly complex world, decision analysis can play a major role in helping decision makers to gain a greater understanding of the problems they face; particularly as research has shown that the decision-making process can often go wrong. This book aims to make decision analysis accessible to managers and administrators in business and public sector organizations. Written in a user-friendly style and using practical examples, it shows how difficult decisions can be tackled in a structured way so that new insights emerge and a documented and defensible rationale for the decision is established. Extended and updated to include the latest ideas and techniques, new features of this edition include chapters on the analytic hierarchy process, decision framing, scenario planning and how unaided decision makers make decisions, while more exercises and discussion questions have been included at the end of most chapters. Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is an essentially practical book which draws together ideas from a variety of disciplines - including psychology, management science and statistics. Assuming little or no prior knowledge of these disciplines, it will help both practicing managers faced with the responsibility of making crucial decisions as well as students on management, business administration and decision analysis courses. "I found the book well organized, informative, and especially easy to read . I give the book my highest recommendation." Journal of the Operational Research Society "This is an excellent introductory text on decision analysis and the best I have seen . Goodwin and Wright have written a remarkably complete text. It is hard to find fault with this book." Interfaces "[This book] offers plenty of thought-provoking questions and inspiration for new ways of tackling decision problems. [It] makes for easy and interesting reading." Scandinavian Journal of Management "All in all, this book is well written, user friendly, and very informative. A very worthwhile book." Personnel Psycholog

About the Author

Paul Goodwin is Senior Lecturer in Management Science in the Management School at the University of Bath. His research interests focus on the role of management judgment in forecasting and decision-making, and he has published in key journals in the field. He is an Associate Editor of the "International Journal of" Forecasting and a member of the editorial board of the "Journal of Behavioral Decision Making," He has consulted with firms such as British Telecom and South Western Electricity.

George Wright is a psychologist with an interest in the role and validity of judgment in decision making and forecasting. He is especially interested in the use of management science- and behaviorally-based methods to improve decision-making. He has published in key journals, and is the Editor of the "Journal of Behavioral Decision Making," He has consulted with firms such as IBM, ICL, NEC, Petronas, Jordan Ministry of Planning, and the Scottish Football Association.

Edition details

• Publisher: Wiley
• Publication date: 1998
• ISBN 10: 047197496X
• ISBN 13: 9780471974963
• Binding: Paperback
• Language: English
• Edition number: 2
• Number of pages: 468