Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis

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9780521427449: Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis
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The authors explain the ways in which uncertainty is an important factor in the problems of risk and policy analysis. This book outlines the source and nature of uncertainty, discusses techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment, and reviews a variety of simple and advanced methods for analyzing uncertainty. Powerful computer environments and good graphical techniques for displaying uncertainty are just two of the more advanced topics addressed in later chapters.

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Book Description:

Uncertainty's importance in the problems of risk and policy analysis is explained by outlining its source and nature, discussing techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment and reviewing methods of analyzing uncertainty.

Review:

"This book is a significant contribution to the exploration of the basic issues and constitutes an important addition to the technical literature addressing uncertainty." Joseph Fragola, IEEE Spectrum

"Uncertainty is a risk analysis textbook that Granger Morgan and Max Henrion have written to serve as a basic text for students as well as a reference work for practitioners and researchers. Uncertainty succeeds both in providing an excellent basis for policy analysis and in drawing upon a variety of case studies that will be of interest to risk researchers." Journal of Economic Literature

"...a significant contribution to the exploration of the basic issues and constitutes an important addition to the technical literature addressing uncertainty." Joseph Fragola, IEEE Spectrum

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Morgan, Millett Grange
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