Researchers in a growing number of fields--public policy, law, business, medicine, psychology, engineering, and others--are working to understand and improve human judgment and decision making. This book, which presupposes no formal training, brings together a selection of key articles in the area, with careful organization, introduction and commentaries. Issues involving medical diagnosis, weather forecasting, labor negotiations, risk, public policy, business strategy, eyewitnesses, and jury decisions are treated in this largely expanded volume. This is a revision of Arkes and Hammond's 1986 collection on judgment and decision making. Updated and extended, the focus of this volume is interdisciplinary and applied.
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This is a revision of Arkes and Hammond's 1986 collection of papers on judment and decision making. Updated and extended, the focus of this volume is interdisciplinary and applied (in contrast to the companion collection, Goldstein and Hogarth's Research in Judgment and Decision Making, 1997). The papers are selected from scientific literature, but chosen specifically to appeal to the scholar, student and layperson alike.
"The three papers in this section are excellent...In this highly readable paper, Dawes draws on examples from a number of disparate fields to discuss the well known, though surprising, finding that simple weighted means of predictor variables produce more accurate forecasts than experts who are basing their judgment on the same variables." Internationsl Journal of Forcasting
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