Randomness - Softcover

Bennett, Deborah J.

Softcover

ISBN 10: 0674107462 ISBN 13: 9780674107465

Publisher: Harvard University Press, 1999

Synopsis

From the ancients' first readings of the innards of birds to your neighbor's last bout with the state lottery, humankind has put itself into the hands of chance. Today life itself may be at stake when probability comes into play--in the chance of a false negative in a medical test, in the reliability of DNA findings as legal evidence, or in the likelihood of passing on a deadly congenital disease--yet as few people as ever understand the odds. This book is aimed at the trouble with trying to learn about probability. A story of the misconceptions and difficulties civilization overcame in progressing toward probabilistic thinking, Randomness is also a skillful account of what makes the science of probability so daunting in our own day.

To acquire a (correct) intuition of chance is not easy to begin with, and moving from an intuitive sense to a formal notion of probability presents further problems. Author Deborah Bennett traces the path this process takes in an individual trying to come to grips with concepts of uncertainty and fairness, and also charts the parallel path by which societies have developed ideas about chance. Why, from ancient to modern times, have people resorted to chance in making decisions? Is a decision made by random choice "fair"? What role has gambling played in our understanding of chance? Why do some individuals and societies refuse to accept randomness at all? If understanding randomness is so important to probabilistic thinking, why do the experts disagree about what it really is? And why are our intuitions about chance almost always dead wrong?

Anyone who has puzzled over a probability conundrum is struck by the paradoxes and counterintuitive results that occur at a relatively simple level. Why this should be, and how it has been the case through the ages, for bumblers and brilliant mathematicians alike, is the entertaining and enlightening lesson of Randomness.

About this title

Review

"Chance governs all," said Milton, but he was writing about hell, not statistical probability. In the modern world, we assume that Milton's hell is everywhere--that is, that fate is best described in terms of statistics, odds, risks, and randomness. But most people, even many scientists, find probability difficult to understand and often counter to common sense. Mathematician Deborah Bennett looks at the history of statistics, games of chance and the casting of lots, the "Monty Hall" problem, and sources of random numbers. "Every day we can see evidence that the human species does not yet have a very highly developed probabilistic sense." With more books like Bennett's, we may in time become better at it--chances are. --Mary Ellen Curtin

From the Back Cover

[Randomness] can most easily be described as a brief history of chance...I can cheerfully recommend it to anyone who is a total beginner when it comes to probability, what it means, why it is desperately puzzling, and what it can do for us despite that...It is fascinating to read about the pioneers of probability, such as Pierre Simon de Laplace with his 'normal distribution'-now more familiar as the notorious bell curve-and Adolphe Quetelet, perhaps the first to realize that there are statistical patterns in human behavior. And I applaud the blunt reminder that when it comes to the real world the 'normal' distribution is actually highly abnormal...My main criticism: it left me wanting more. A sequel, please.-Ian Stewart, Times Higher Education Supplement[UK]

About this edition

• Publisher: Harvard University Press
• Publication date: 1999
• ISBN 10: 0674107462
• ISBN 13: 9780674107465
• Binding: Paperback
• Number of pages: 238