Items related to Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can...

Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? - Softcover

  • 3.99 out of 5 stars
    683 ratings by Goodreads
 
9780691128719: Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?

Synopsis

The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.


Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat.


Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making.

"synopsis" may belong to another edition of this title.

From the Back Cover

"This book is a landmark in both content and style of argument. It is a major advance in our understanding of expert judgment in the vitally important and almost impossible task of political and strategic forecasting. Tetlock also offers a unique example of even-handed social science. This may be the first book I have seen in which the arguments and objections of opponents are presented with as much care as the author's own position."--Daniel Kahneman, Princeton University, recipient of the 2002 Nobel Prize in economic sciences

"This book is a major contribution to our thinking about political judgment. Philip Tetlock formulates coding rules by which to categorize the observations of individuals, and arrives at several interesting hypotheses. He lays out the many strategies that experts use to avoid learning from surprising real-world events."--Deborah W. Larson, University of California, Los Angeles

"This is a marvelous book--fascinating and important. It provides a stimulating and often profound discussion, not only of what sort of people tend to be better predictors than others, but of what we mean by good judgment and the nature of objectivity. It examines the tensions between holding to beliefs that have served us well and responding rapidly to new information. Unusual in its breadth and reach, the subtlety and sophistication of its analysis, and the fair-mindedness of the alternative perspectives it provides, it is a must-read for all those interested in how political judgments are formed."--Robert Jervis, Columbia University

"This book is just what one would expect from America's most influential political psychologist: Intelligent, important, and closely argued. Both science and policy are brilliantly illuminated by Tetlock's fascinating arguments."--Daniel Gilbert, Harvard University

About the Author

Philip E. Tetlock is Mitchell Professor of Leadership at the University of California, Berkeley. His books include Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics (Princeton).

"About this title" may belong to another edition of this title.

  • PublisherPrinceton University Press
  • Publication date2006
  • ISBN 10 0691128715
  • ISBN 13 9780691128719
  • BindingPaperback
  • LanguageEnglish
  • Number of pages344
  • Rating
    • 3.99 out of 5 stars
      683 ratings by Goodreads

Buy Used

Condition: Very Good
Very Good Condition. Five star...
View this item

FREE shipping within U.S.A.

Destination, rates & speeds

Other Popular Editions of the Same Title

Search results for Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can...

Stock Image

Tetlock, Philip E.
Published by Princeton University Press, 2006
ISBN 10: 0691128715 ISBN 13: 9780691128719
Used Softcover

Seller: Hawking Books, Edgewood, TX, U.S.A.

Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars 5-star rating, Learn more about seller ratings

Condition: Very Good. Very Good Condition. Five star seller - Buy with confidence! Seller Inventory # X0691128715X2

Contact seller

Buy Used

US$ 6.29
Convert currency
Shipping: FREE
Within U.S.A.
Destination, rates & speeds

Quantity: 1 available

Add to basket

Stock Image

Tetlock, Philip E.
Published by Princeton University Press, 2006
ISBN 10: 0691128715 ISBN 13: 9780691128719
Used Paperback

Seller: ThriftBooks-Dallas, Dallas, TX, U.S.A.

Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars 5-star rating, Learn more about seller ratings

Paperback. Condition: Very Good. No Jacket. Former library book; May have limited writing in cover pages. Pages are unmarked. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less 1.14. Seller Inventory # G0691128715I4N10

Contact seller

Buy Used

US$ 6.48
Convert currency
Shipping: FREE
Within U.S.A.
Destination, rates & speeds

Quantity: 1 available

Add to basket

Stock Image

Tetlock, Philip E.
Published by Princeton University Press, 2006
ISBN 10: 0691128715 ISBN 13: 9780691128719
Used Paperback

Seller: ThriftBooks-Atlanta, AUSTELL, GA, U.S.A.

Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars 5-star rating, Learn more about seller ratings

Paperback. Condition: Very Good. No Jacket. Former library book; May have limited writing in cover pages. Pages are unmarked. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less 1.14. Seller Inventory # G0691128715I4N10

Contact seller

Buy Used

US$ 6.48
Convert currency
Shipping: FREE
Within U.S.A.
Destination, rates & speeds

Quantity: 1 available

Add to basket

Stock Image

Tetlock, Philip E.
Published by Princeton University Press, 2006
ISBN 10: 0691128715 ISBN 13: 9780691128719
Used Paperback

Seller: HPB-Ruby, Dallas, TX, U.S.A.

Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars 5-star rating, Learn more about seller ratings

Paperback. Condition: Very Good. Connecting readers with great books since 1972! Used books may not include companion materials, and may have some shelf wear or limited writing. We ship orders daily and Customer Service is our top priority! Seller Inventory # S_424373201

Contact seller

Buy Used

US$ 3.50
Convert currency
Shipping: US$ 3.75
Within U.S.A.
Destination, rates & speeds

Quantity: 1 available

Add to basket

Stock Image

Tetlock, Philip E.
Published by Princeton University Press, 2006
ISBN 10: 0691128715 ISBN 13: 9780691128719
Used Softcover

Seller: Better World Books, Mishawaka, IN, U.S.A.

Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars 5-star rating, Learn more about seller ratings

Condition: Very Good. Used book that is in excellent condition. May show signs of wear or have minor defects. Seller Inventory # 12591537-6

Contact seller

Buy Used

US$ 8.15
Convert currency
Shipping: FREE
Within U.S.A.
Destination, rates & speeds

Quantity: 3 available

Add to basket

Stock Image

Tetlock, Philip E.
Published by Princeton University Press, 2006
ISBN 10: 0691128715 ISBN 13: 9780691128719
Used Paperback

Seller: HPB-Red, Dallas, TX, U.S.A.

Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars 5-star rating, Learn more about seller ratings

Paperback. Condition: Good. Connecting readers with great books since 1972! Used textbooks may not include companion materials such as access codes, etc. May have some wear or writing/highlighting. We ship orders daily and Customer Service is our top priority! Seller Inventory # S_366310165

Contact seller

Buy Used

US$ 5.00
Convert currency
Shipping: US$ 3.75
Within U.S.A.
Destination, rates & speeds

Quantity: 1 available

Add to basket

Stock Image

Tetlock, Philip E.
Published by Princeton University Press, 2006
ISBN 10: 0691128715 ISBN 13: 9780691128719
Used Paperback

Seller: HPB-Emerald, Dallas, TX, U.S.A.

Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars 5-star rating, Learn more about seller ratings

Paperback. Condition: Very Good. Connecting readers with great books since 1972! Used books may not include companion materials, and may have some shelf wear or limited writing. We ship orders daily and Customer Service is our top priority! Seller Inventory # S_430228639

Contact seller

Buy Used

US$ 5.59
Convert currency
Shipping: US$ 3.75
Within U.S.A.
Destination, rates & speeds

Quantity: 1 available

Add to basket

Stock Image

Tetlock, Philip E.
Published by Princeton University Press, 2006
ISBN 10: 0691128715 ISBN 13: 9780691128719
Used Softcover

Seller: Goodwill Industries of VSB, Oxnard, CA, U.S.A.

Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars 5-star rating, Learn more about seller ratings

Condition: Acceptable. The book is 100% readable but visibly worn, and damaged. This may include stains. tears, rips, folded pages, binding damage, dents, scuffs, scratches and sticker residue. The book also may contain heavy highlighting and notes. Most books listed do not fall under these conditions as we tend to underlist. If you would like a photo of your purchase,please contact us. Seller Inventory # 4JQO8Z00689E

Contact seller

Buy Used

US$ 5.67
Convert currency
Shipping: US$ 3.99
Within U.S.A.
Destination, rates & speeds

Quantity: 1 available

Add to basket

Stock Image

Tetlock, Philip E.
ISBN 10: 0691128715 ISBN 13: 9780691128719
Used Soft cover

Seller: Doss-Haus Books, Redondo Beach, CA, U.S.A.

Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars 5-star rating, Learn more about seller ratings

Soft cover. Condition: Fine. Softcover 2006 edition. Text and covers in fine condition. Binding firm. One word neatly underlined with three word margin note. Seller Inventory # 021115

Contact seller

Buy Used

US$ 9.00
Convert currency
Shipping: US$ 5.50
Within U.S.A.
Destination, rates & speeds

Quantity: 1 available

Add to basket

Stock Image

Tetlock, Philip E.
Published by Princeton University Press, 2006
ISBN 10: 0691128715 ISBN 13: 9780691128719
Used Softcover

Seller: Better World Books Ltd, Dunfermline, United Kingdom

Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars 5-star rating, Learn more about seller ratings

Condition: Very Good. Ships from the UK. Former library book; may include library markings. Used book that is in excellent condition. May show signs of wear or have minor defects. Seller Inventory # GRP85670915

Contact seller

Buy Used

US$ 6.46
Convert currency
Shipping: US$ 10.66
From United Kingdom to U.S.A.
Destination, rates & speeds

Quantity: 1 available

Add to basket

There are 13 more copies of this book

View all search results for this book