Calculating Credibility: How Leaders Assess Military Threats (Cornell Studies in Security Affairs) - Softcover

Press, Daryl G.

Softcover

ISBN 10: 0801474159 ISBN 13: 9780801474156

Publisher: Cornell University Press, 2007

Synopsis

Calculating Credibility examines―and ultimately rejects―a fundamental belief held by laypeople and the makers of American foreign policy: the notion that backing down during a crisis reduces a country's future credibility. Fear of diminished credibility motivated America's costly participation in the Korean and Vietnam wars, and, since the end of the Cold War, this concern has continued to guide American policy decisions. Daryl G. Press uses historical evidence, including declassified documents, to answer two crucial questions: When a country backs down in a crisis, does its credibility suffer? How do leaders assess their adversaries' credibility? Press illuminates the decision-making processes behind events such as the crises in Europe that preceded World War II, the superpower showdowns over Berlin in the 1950s and 60s, and the Cuban Missile Crisis.

When leaders face the prospect of high-stakes military conflicts, Press shows, they do not assess their adversaries' credibility by peering into their opponents' past and evaluating their history of keeping or breaking commitments. Power and interests in the current crisis―not past actions―determine the credibility of a threat. Press demonstrates that threats are credible only if backed by sufficient power and only if pursuing important interests. Press believes that Washington's obsession with the dangers of backing down has made U.S. foreign policy unnecessarily rigid. In every competitive environment―sports, gambling, warfare―competitors use feints and bluffs to tremendous advantage. Understanding the real sources of credibility, Press asserts, would permit a more flexible, and more effective, foreign policy.

About this title

From the Back Cover

"Daryl G. Press has written a truly important book. He demolishes the widely held belief that a state that backs down in a crisis loses credibility in the next crisis. In fact, he shows that a state's past behavior has almost no effect on how other states assess its credibility. Reputation is an overblown concept. The American foreign-policy elite should be told immediately about Press's findings."--John J. Mearsheimer, R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science, University of Chicago

"Calculating Credibility considers how policymakers estimate whether another state's threats are credible. Although some have charged that deterrence is irrelevant in the post-Cold War era, how states make credible threats is of considerable practical importance. For instance, the Bush administration argued that the United States was justified in going to war against Iraq to preserve the credibility of the United Nations. This book fills a major gap in the literature in security studies and deterrence theory."--Deborah Welch Larson, UCLA

From the Inside Flap

"Calculating Credibility considers how policymakers estimate whether another state's threats are credible. Although some have charged that deterrence is irrelevant in the post-Cold War era, how states make credible threats is of considerable practical importance. For instance, the Bush administration argued that the United States was justified in going to war against Iraq to preserve the credibility of the United Nations. This book fills a major gap in the literature in security studies and deterrence theory."—Deborah Welch Larson, UCLA

Edition details

• Publisher: Cornell University Press
• Publication date: 2007
• ISBN 10: 0801474159
• ISBN 13: 9780801474156
• Binding: Paperback
• Language: English
• Edition number: 1
• Number of pages: 240