Deterrence: Its Past and Future―Papers Presented at Hoover Institution, November 2010 (Hoover Institution Press Publication) (Volume 613) - Hardcover

Hardcover

ISBN 10: 081791384X ISBN 13: 9780817913847

Publisher: Hoover Institution Press, 2011

Synopsis

Drawn from the third in a series of conferences the Hoover Institution at Stanford University on the nuclear legacy of the cold war, this report examines the importance of deterrence, from its critical function in the cold war to its current role. Recognizing that today's international environment is radically different from that which it was during the cold war, the need is pressing to reassess the role of nuclear weapons in deterrence in the world of today and to look ahead to the future.

About this title

About the Author

George P. Shultz is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Distinguished Fellow at the Hoover Institution, and has had a distinguished career in government, in academia, and in business. He lives in San Francisco. Sidney D. Drell is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and professor of theoretical physics emeritus at the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, Stanford University. He lives in Palo Alto, California. James E. Goodby is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution and a senior fellow with the Center for Northeast Asia Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution. He lives in San Jose, California.

From the Back Cover

Reassessing the role of nuclear deterrence

Although deterrence will not disappear, current and future threats to international security will present relatively fewer situations in which deterrence, least of all nuclear deterrence, will be the most effective tool of statecraft. This report, drawn from the third in a series of conferences at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University on the nuclear legacy of the cold war, examines the importance of deterrence, from its critical function in the cold war to its current role. The contributors discuss how, with today’s international environment radically different from that which it was during the cold war, the need is pressing  to reassess the role of deterrence in whatever form it may take to meet the challenges of today’s world.

This use of American influence—a resource of which deterrence is only one part—can foster expectations that trend toward favoring less reliance on nuclear weapons, not more. This report is intended to contribute to the necessary dialogue that may, in time, lead to a consensus that a world without nuclear weapons is a practical enterprise among nations.

CONTRIBUTORS: James Acton, Sidney Drell, Christopher A. Ford, James Goodby, David Holloway, Edward Ifft, Raymond Jeanloz, Michael Mazarr, John McLaughlin, Patrick Morgan, George Quester

From the Inside Flap

Deterrence as applied during the cold war loomed larger than other tools of statecraft and was identified more closely with the possible use of devastating military force than should be the case today. The current international environment is radically different from that which it was during the cold war. Threats of very different types, from cyber warfare to terrorist attacks, have become the major dangers to world order. Current and future threats to international security will present relatively fewer situations in which deterrence, least of all nuclear deterrence, will be the most effective tool of statecraft. A new approach is clearly necessary.

This book is a collection of the papers prepared for and presented at the November 2010 Hoover Nuclear Threat Initiative Conference by an expert group of analysts, all of whom have studied deterrence issues for many years. The authors highlight ways deterrence has been shaped by surrounding conditions and circumstances. They look at the prospective reliability of deterrence as a tool of statecraft in the emerging international environment. And they examine the challenges of “weaponless deterrence”: developing approaches to nuclear deterrence that rely not on the actua, but rather on the potential existence of nuclear weapons. In addition, they look at the ongoing debates over “de-alerting” (slowing down the capability for immediate launch and rapid nuclear escalation), the role of arms control, and the practical considerations related to verification and compliance.

As long as nuclear weapons continue to exist, the United States should ensure that its nuclear forces are safe, reliable, and capable of launching a devastating nuclear strike on any nation that attacks it with nuclear weapons. Even after the world reaches the long-for goal of zero nuclear weapons, nuclear deterrence will continue to have a vital role for some time to come. As George Shultz says in his foreword to this report, “One thing is clear: no analysis of a world without nuclear weapons can proceed very far without considering the issue of deterrence.”

Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.

“It is important to note that the word and the concept existed before 1945, amid experiences that seem like a dress rehearsal for what we lived with in the cold war, and that might offer important lessons on future ‘deterrence.’”—Chapter Two, pg. 16

Edition details

• Publisher: Hoover Institution Press
• Publication date: 2011
• Language: English
• ISBN 10: 081791384X
• ISBN 13: 9780817913847
• Binding: Hardcover
• Edition number: 1
• Number of pages: 464
• Editor: Shultz George P., Drell Sidney D., Goodby James E.