India's Emerging Nuclear Posture: Between Recessed Deterrent and Ready Arsenal - Softcover

Tellis, Ashley J.

Softcover

ISBN 10: 0833027816 ISBN 13: 9780833027818

Publisher: RAND Corporation, 2001

Synopsis

After a hiatus of almost 24 years, India startled the international community by resuming nuclear testing in May 1998. Pakistan responded later the same month with five nuclear tests of its own. The belief that the nuclear tests in South Asia have not only altered the strategic environment in the region but also transformed New Delhi into a nuclear weapons power recurs constantly in Indian strategic and political analyses. This book will address these issues in the context of a broader understanding of India's strategic interests, its institutional structures, and its security goals. The author argues that the truth of the matter is much more complex than most Indian analysts believe and that despite demonstrating and ability to successfully undertake nuclear explosions, India still has some way to go before it can acquire the capabilties that would make it a consequential nuclear power.

About this title

From the Publisher

The resumption of nuclear testing in South Asia in May 1998 cameas a surprise to many in the United States. In the aftermath of thesetests, India declared itself to be a "nuclear weapon state" and for-mallyannounced its intention to develop a nuclear deterrent. Theseevents have significant implications both for regional security andfor the future of the evolving international order. In particular, theyrequire that American policymakers and defense planners under-standthe motivations behind India's decisions as well as the natureof Indian thinking about nuclear weaponry and the character of theevolving Indian deterrent-especially insofar as these issues affectU.S. diplomatic initiatives, nonproliferation policy, and regionalstrategy.This book describes India's emerging nuclear posture in the con-textof a broader assessment of its strategic interests, institutionalstructures, and security goals. It seeks to explicate the prevailing atti-tudestoward nuclear weaponry among Indian security managers be-causesuch attitudes, more than anything else, will ultimately de-termineNew Delhi's future decisions with regard to its doctrine,capabilities, and force posture. Since the principal objective of thisbook is to prepare U.S. policymakers in particular and the Americanstrategic community in general for prospective developments inthese three issue areas, a critical understanding, reconstruction, andsynthesis of the "official mind" on key questions pertaining to nucle-arizationremain the most appropriate methodological device for as-sessingNew Delhi's strategic choices.Toward that end, the book draws deeply from the best of the vastnumber of Indian writings available on issues surrounding nuclearweaponry. In fact, all the data and information pertaining to theIndian nuclear program have been drawn from open sources, pri-marilyIndian and Western newspapers, books, and journal articles.The author also benefited greatly from extensive interviews with im-portantIndian political figures (both in the current government andin the opposition) as well as with high-ranking officials in the PrimeMinister's Office, the Ministries of External Affairs and Defence (in-cludingthe Defence Research and Development Organization), andsenior Indian military officers, both current and retired. This ex-clusivereliance on open-source and interview materials implies thatsome factual information appearing in this book may be imperfectbut does not fundamentally compromise either the principal analyti-calconclusions drawn or the policy implications for the UnitedStates. The writing of this book was substantially completed byOctober 2000.This study is part of an ongoing analysis of emerging strategictrends in Asia and their implications for the U.S. Air Force. This re-searchis conducted in the Strategy and Doctrine Program of ProjectAIR FORCE under the sponsorship of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Airand Space Operations, U.S. Air Force (AF/XO), and the Commander-in-Chief, Pacific Air Forces (PACAF/CC). This book should be of in-terestto the U.S. national security community, regional military andintelligence analysts, the nonproliferation establishment, and aca-demicsin general.PROJECT AIR FORCEProject AIR FORCE, a division of RAND, is the Air Force federallyfunded research and development center (FFRDC) for studies andanalyses. It provides the Air Force with independent analyses of pol-icyalternatives affecting the development, employment, combatreadiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Re-searchis performed in four programs: Aerospace Force Develop-ment;Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management;and Strategy and Doctrine.

About the Author

Ashley Tellis (Ph.D., Political Science, University of Chicago) is a senior policy analyst at RAND with expertise in South Asian security and defense matters, Asian interstate relations, and the theory and practice of international affairs. His current research examines nuclear proliferation and weapons of mass destruction and the future of U.S. security strategy in Asia.

Edition details

• Publisher: RAND Corporation
• Publication date: 2001
• ISBN 10: 0833027816
• ISBN 13: 9780833027818
• Binding: Paperback
• Language: English
• Number of pages: 427