Polling at a Crossroads: Rethinking Modern Survey Research (Methodological Tools in the Social Sciences) - Hardcover

Bailey, Michael A.

Hardcover

ISBN 10: 1108482791 ISBN 13: 9781108482790

Publisher: Cambridge University Press, 2024

Synopsis

Survey research is in a state of crisis. People have become less willing to respond to polls and recent misses in critical elections have undermined the field's credibility. Pollsters have developed many tools for dealing with the new environment, an increasing number of which rely on risky opt-in samples. Virtually all of these tools require that respondents in each demographic category are a representative sample of all people in each demographic category, something that is unlikely to be reliably true. Polling at a Crossroads moves beyond such strong limitations, providing tools that work even when survey respondents are unrepresentative in complex ways. This book provides case studies that show how to avoid underestimating Trump support and how conventional polls exaggerate partisan differences. This book also helps us think in clear and sometimes counterintuitive ways and points toward simple, low-cost changes that can better address contemporary polling challenges.

About this title

About the Author

Michael A. Bailey is Walsh Professor in the Department of Government and McCourt School of Public Policy at Georgetown University, where he directs the Data Science for Public Policy program. His research has been published in top academic journals. He is author of Real Econometrics (2020) and The Constrained Court (2011).

Edition details

• Publisher: Cambridge University Press
• Publication date: 2024
• Language: English
• ISBN 10: 1108482791
• ISBN 13: 9781108482790
• Binding: Hardcover
• Number of pages: 290