The New Depression: The Breakdown of the Paper Money Economy - Hardcover

Duncan, Richard

Hardcover

ISBN 10: 1118157796 ISBN 13: 9781118157794

Publisher: Wiley, 2012

Synopsis

Why the global recession is in danger of becoming another Great Depression, and how we can stop it

When the United States stopped backing dollars with gold in 1968, the nature of money changed. All previous constraints on money and credit creation were removed and a new economic paradigm took shape. Economic growth ceased to be driven by capital accumulation and investment as it had been since before the Industrial Revolution. Instead, credit creation and consumption began to drive the economic dynamic. In The New Depression: The Breakdown of the Paper Money Economy, Richard Duncan introduces an analytical framework, The Quantity Theory of Credit, that explains all aspects of the calamity now unfolding: its causes, the rationale for the government's policy response to the crisis, what is likely to happen next, and how those developments will affect asset prices and investment portfolios.

In his previous book, The Dollar Crisis (2003), Duncan explained why a severe global economic crisis was inevitable given the flaws in the post-Bretton Woods international monetary system, and now he's back to explain what's next. The economic system that emerged following the abandonment of sound money requires credit growth to survive. Yet the private sector can bear no additional debt and the government's creditworthiness is deteriorating rapidly. Should total credit begin to contract significantly, this New Depression will become a New Great Depression, with disastrous economic and geopolitical consequences. That outcome is not inevitable, and this book describes what must be done to prevent it.

• Presents a fascinating look inside the financial crisis and how the New Depression is poised to become a New Great Depression
• Introduces a new theoretical construct, The Quantity Theory of Credit, that is the key to understanding not only the developments that led to the crisis, but also to understanding how events will play out in the years ahead
• Offers unique insights from the man who predicted the global economic breakdown

Alarming but essential reading, The New Depression explains why the global economy is teetering on the brink of falling into a deep and protracted depression, and how we can restore stability.

About this title

Review:

Q & A with Richard Duncan, author of The New Depression

Richard Duncan

This is a very ambitious book. Its theme is that a new credit-driven economic system has replaced Capitalism in recent decades and is now at risk of breaking down into a New Great Depression. Is that correct?
Yes. In 1968, when the United States stopped backing dollars with gold, the nature of money changed. The distinction between money and credit became blurred and the constraints on credit creation were eliminated. Over the next 40 years, total credit in the US expanded 50 times from $1 trillion to $50 trillion. That explosion of credit financed unprecedented global prosperity. There is now a grave danger that this new credit-fuelled economic paradigm will break down into depression because the private sector cannot bear any additional debt.

But why do you call this a new economic paradigm? Isn't that just the way Capitalism works?
No. Capitalism was an economic system in which the private sector created growth through a process of investment, profit and capital accumulation (hence Capitalism), in an ongoing cycle. The government played very little role. Our economic system has not worked like that for decades. The US government now spends $25 out of every $100 spent in the economy (25% of GDP) and the central bank "creates" the money and manipulates it value. That is not Capitalism. Moreover, the economic dynamic is no longer driven by investment and capital accumulation. Our system is driven by credit creation and consumption. Creditism is a more appropriate name for it. Creditism has created extraordinarily rapid growth for decades, but now seems to have hit its limit to create more growth because the credit that has already been extended can no longer be repaid. Therefore, no further credit expansion appears possible.

Why do you believe credit growth is so vital for economic growth?
Since 1952, there have only been nine years when total credit (adjusted for inflation) grew by less than 2% in the United States. Every time there was a recession; and the recession did not end until there was another large surge of credit expansion.

In this book you introduce the Quantity Theory of Credit. What is that?
The Quantity Theory of Credit is an adaptation of the centuries-old Quantity Theory of Money--adapted to make it pertinent to this new age of fiat money. It is a simple, but powerful, analytical framework that explains all aspects of this crisis: its causes, the government's policy response to it thus far, what's likely to happen next and the impact that future developments will have on asset prices.

On the topic of asset prices, will this book help individuals make better investment decisions?
Yes. Chapter Seven lays out scenarios of how events are likely to unfold between now and 2015; and describes how asset prices would be impacted under each scenario. Chapter Ten discusses why asset prices now move in unexpected ways compared with the way they would be expected to behave within a Capitalist system. It also discusses the prospects and consequences of inflation and deflation, as well as the advantages offered through diversification.

Finally, do you believe the global economy will collapse into a New Great Depression and what will happen if it does?
The flaws of our new economic model, Creditism, are all completely obvious now. However, there are extraordinary opportunities that exist within this system that we as a society have not yet grasped. They are described in Chapter Nine. My goal in writing this book was to point out what those opportunities are so that we can avoid the terrible economic calamity that may be inevitable otherwise. Should we fail to understand and take advantage of the opportunities our new economic system presents, the economic and geopolitical consequences are likely to be dire. Chapter Eight, Disaster Scenarios, spells out just how bad things could become if we don't come to grips with the nature of our new economic system and implement a bold and imaginative strategy that ends this crisis.

From the Back Cover:

Praise for The New Depression

"The economic philosophies of John Maynard Keynes and Ludwig von Mises are obsolete. The world needs a new economist with a new economic philosophy. Richard Duncan is that new worldly economist. For years, I have recommended everyone read his books, The Dollar Crisis and The Corruption of Capitalism. Richard's latest book, The New Depression, is more than recommended reading. It is essential reading."
—Robert Kiyosaki, founder of the Rich Dad Company and Cashflow Technologies, Inc.

"Richard Duncan makes a strong case for paying greater attention to the role of credit creation in understanding macroeconomic performances. He makes an even stronger case for aggressive government borrowing and spending in those areas that are critical for the society's future when the private sector is unable to perform that role. This view is particularly relevant at present when private sectors in so many countries are faced with seriously impaired balance sheets following their involvement in housing bubbles. With the private sector no longer maximizing profits but minimizing debt instead, a failure to implement Richard Duncan's fiscal policy recommendations may well result in an unnecessary implosion of the world economy."
—Richard Koo, Chief Economist, Nomura Research Institute, Tokyo

"Richard Duncan's The New Depression is firstly a masterful analysis of how the credit bubble expanded and why conventional economics failed, leaving policymakers asleep at the switch. Credit, as Duncan explains, was left totally unmoored by the ending of the gold reserve requirement and by changes that allowed banks to create credit almost at will. His Quantity Theory of Credit is compelling, and once accepted, his accounting of how the depression plays out is frightening and all too believable. This book will open your eyes and leave you clutching your wallet."
—James Saft, columnist, Reuters, with works appearing in the International Herald Tribune

About this edition

• Publisher: Wiley
• Publication date: 2012
• ISBN 10: 1118157796
• ISBN 13: 9781118157794
• Binding: Hardcover
• Edition number: 1
• Number of pages: 179