The Doomsday Argument, Self-Sampling Assumption, and Self-Indication Assumption are wrong; J. Richard Gott III’s delta t argument underestimates longevity, providing lower bounds on probabilities of longevity, and is equivalent to Laplace’s Rule of Succession; but Non-Parametric Predictive Inference based on the work of Bruce M. Hill and Frank P.A. Coolen is consistent with a plausible theory of induction; and Ayn Rand’s identification of characteristics as ranges of measurement establishes a philosophical foundation for such a theory of induction. This monograph is a much-revised and much-expanded version of the author’s article, “Past Longevity as Evidence for the Future,” published in Philosophy of Science (January 2009), often recognized as the leading peer-reviewed journal in its field. Since its publication, that article has been cited favorably in these top-ranked philosophical journals: Journal of Philosophy, Analysis, Synthese, and Ratio.
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Ronald Pisaturo was a founder and President of American Renaissance School, a private high school with high academic standards. The school, located in White Plains, New York, operated in the 1980s. Mr. Pisaturo is also the author of The Merchant of Mars and Masculine Power, Feminine Beauty: The Volitional, Objective Basis for Heterosexuality in Romantic Love and Marriage. Articles by Mr. Pisaturo have appeared in Philosophy of Science, The Federalist, The Intellectual Activist, Barron’s, Capitalism Magazine, many newspapers, and his blog at www.ronpisaturo.com/blog. Plays by Mr. Pisaturo that have been produced include Escape From Eden and Brothers, Not Keepers.
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