How to Expect the Unexpected: The Science of Making Predictions―and the Art of Knowing When Not To - Hardcover
Synopsis
A “vivid, wide-ranging, and delightful guide” (bestselling author Tim Harford) for understanding how and why predictions go wrong, with practical tips to give you a better chance of getting them right
How can you be 100 percent sure you will win a bet? Why did so many Pompeians stay put while Mount Vesuvius was erupting? Are you more likely to work in a kitchen if your last name is Baker? Ever since the dawn of human civilization, we have been trying to make predictions about what the world has in store for us. For just as long, we have been getting it wrong. In How to Expect the Unexpected, mathematician Kit Yates uncovers the surprising science that undergirds our predictions—and how we can use it to our advantage.
From religious oracles to weather forecasters, and from politicians to economists, we are subjected to poor predictions all the time. Synthesizing results from math, biology, psychology, sociology, medicine, economic theory, and physics, Yates provides tools for readers to understand uncertainty and to recognize the cognitive biases that make accurate predictions so hard to come by.
This book will teach you how and why predictions go wrong, help you to spot phony forecasts, and give you a better chance of getting your own predictions correct.
"synopsis" may belong to another edition of this title.
About the Author
Kit Yates is a senior lecturer in the department of mathematical sciences and codirector of the Centre for Mathematical Biology at the University of Bath. He is the author of The Math of Life and Death (2020), which was a Sunday Times Science Book of the Year. He lives in Oxford, England.
"About this title" may belong to another edition of this title.
Other Popular Editions of the Same Title
Search results for How to Expect the Unexpected: The Science of Making...
Stock Image
How to Expect the Unexpected: The Science of Making Predictions?and the Art of Knowing When Not To
Seller: SustainableBooks.com, Amherst, NY, U.S.A.
Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars
Condition: Poor. Book is Poor condition. Good for reading, not pretty to look at! The pages and cover are soiled and/or yellowed, worn throughout. Seller Inventory # 1541604938-2-6
Stock Image
How to Expect the Unexpected: The Science of Making Predictions?and the Art of Knowing When Not To
Seller: World of Books (was SecondSale), Montgomery, IL, U.S.A.
Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars
Condition: Good. Item in good condition and has highlighting/writing on text. Used texts may not contain supplemental items such as CDs, info-trac etc. Seller Inventory # 00100759719
Stock Image
How to Expect the Unexpected: The Science of Making Predictions--And the Art of Knowing When Not to
Seller: ThriftBooks-Reno, Reno, NV, U.S.A.
Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars
Hardcover. Condition: Very Good. No Jacket. Former library book; May have limited writing in cover pages. Pages are unmarked. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less. Seller Inventory # G1541604938I4N10
Stock Image
How to Expect the Unexpected: The Science of Making Predictions--And the Art of Knowing When Not to
Seller: ThriftBooks-Atlanta, AUSTELL, GA, U.S.A.
Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars
Hardcover. Condition: Very Good. No Jacket. Former library book; May have limited writing in cover pages. Pages are unmarked. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less. Seller Inventory # G1541604938I4N10
Stock Image
How to Expect the Unexpected: The Science of Making Predictions--And the Art of Knowing When Not to
Seller: ThriftBooks-Atlanta, AUSTELL, GA, U.S.A.
Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars
Hardcover. Condition: Good. No Jacket. Former library book; Pages can have notes/highlighting. Spine may show signs of wear. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less. Seller Inventory # G1541604938I3N10
Stock Image
How to Expect the Unexpected: The Science of Making Predictions--And the Art of Knowing When Not to
Seller: ThriftBooks-Dallas, Dallas, TX, U.S.A.
Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars
Hardcover. Condition: Very Good. No Jacket. Former library book; May have limited writing in cover pages. Pages are unmarked. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less. Seller Inventory # G1541604938I4N10
Stock Image
How to Expect the Unexpected: The Science of Making Predictions--And the Art of Knowing When Not to
Seller: ThriftBooks-Dallas, Dallas, TX, U.S.A.
Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars
Hardcover. Condition: Good. No Jacket. Former library book; Pages can have notes/highlighting. Spine may show signs of wear. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less. Seller Inventory # G1541604938I3N10
Seller Image
How to Expect the Unexpected: The Science of Making Predictionsâand the Art of Knowing When Not To
Seller: Blue Vase Books, Interlochen, MI, U.S.A.
Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars
Condition: good. The item shows wear from consistent use, but it remains in good condition and works perfectly. All pages and cover are intact including the dust cover, if applicable . Spine may show signs of wear. Pages may include limited notes and highlighting. May NOT include discs, access code or other supplemental materials. Seller Inventory # BVV.1541604938.G
Stock Image
How to Expect the Unexpected : The Science of Making Predictions--And the Art of Knowing When Not To
Seller: Better World Books: West, Reno, NV, U.S.A.
Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars
Condition: Fine. Used book that is in almost brand-new condition. May contain a remainder mark. Better World Books: Buy Books. Do Good. Seller Inventory # 49054443-75
Stock Image
How to Expect the Unexpected : The Science of Making Predictions--And the Art of Knowing When Not To
Seller: Better World Books, Mishawaka, IN, U.S.A.
Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars
Condition: Fine. Used book that is in almost brand-new condition. May contain a remainder mark. Better World Books: Buy Books. Do Good. Seller Inventory # 49054443-75