Decision Analysis for Managers (Quantitative Decision-Making) - Softcover

Charlesworth, David

Softcover

ISBN 10: 1606494880 ISBN 13: 9781606494882

Publisher: Business Expert Press, 2013

Synopsis

Everybody has to make decisions--they are unavoidable. Yet we receive little or no education or training on how to make decisions. Business decisions can be dif_ cult: which people to hire, which product lines or facilities to expand and which to sell or shut down, which bid or proposal to accept, which process to implement, how much R&D to invest in, which environmental projects should receive the highest priority, etc. This book gives you all the tools you need to... * clarify and reach alignment on goals and objectives and understand trade-offs in reaching those goals, * develop and examine alternatives, * systematically analyze the effects of risk and uncertainty, and * maximize the chances of achieving your goals and objectives. Success (getting what you want) depends on luck and good decision making. You can't control your luck, but you can maximize your odds by making the best possible decisions, and this book gets you there. Broadly speaking, this book organizes and presents otherwise formal decision-making tools in an intuitively understandable fashion. The presentation is informal, but the concepts and tools are research-based and formally accepted.

About this title

About the Author

San Ramon, CA; Chevron; David Charlesworth is a licensed chemical engineer (State of Georgia), obtained his MBA from the University of Florida, and obtained a BS ChE from Indiana Tech. He has over 15 years experience working as a decision analyst in a variety of industries, including oil and gas, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals. He has also been a guest lecturer at University of Texas (Austin) and Rice University.

His industrial experience includes over 20 years in a variety of technical and managerial assignments at DuPont and Conoco followed by head of engineering at PCR (a fine chemical company), consulting at Decision Strategies, Inc., and most recently working as a decision analyst, planning manager, and alliance manager at Chevron.

From the Inside Flap

Decision analysis is a set of tools intended to help improve business and personal decisions. It provides a framework to analyze goals and objectives in a logical and quantitative manner. The author has considerable experience both in applying these principles and in teaching others how to do so. When properly applied in both improves communication among groups and stimulates creativity in developing alternative courses of action. In short, the methodology helps clarify goals and objectives, exploring various ways to achieve them, and then deciding on a course of action. These techniques are useful whether applied to purely economic decisions or the more "fuzzy" ones such as career planning.

The writing is clear and the processes are well-illustrated. The sequence starts with framing--how to work together, what is wanted, what can be done, what is known. Insofar as possible, quantitative techniques are used to illustrate what elements are most important and to which the outcome is most sensitive.

One important issue that is not always recognized is to estimate the value of information. While "knowledge" may be open-ended, "information" takes on value according to how it is used. Gaining information is resource-intensive both in money and personnel. Its value lies in the probability that it will influence a decision and what value changing a decision might have. "How much is it worth to know?" is a question too often unasked, and the methods for answering are too often unknown to decision-makers.

While quantitative decision analysis can be mathematically complex, this book explains the concepts clearly. From a management standpoint, understanding what is possible to do to improve communication, develop alternatives creatively, improve the quality of decisions and increase the probability of success is well worth the effort and this book is a very good place to start.

C. Thomas Sciance, Ph.D., Director of Downstream Technology, Conoco (retired) and Adjunct Professor, University of Texas, Austin

Edition details

• Publisher: Business Expert Press
• Publication date: 2013
• Language: English
• ISBN 10: 1606494880
• ISBN 13: 9781606494882
• Binding: Paperback
• Number of pages: 134