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Synopsis
Forecasting is integral to all governmental activities, especially budgetary activities. Without good and accurate forecasts, a government will not only find it difficult to carry out its everyday operations but will also find it difficult to cope with the increasingly complex environment in which it has to operate. This book presents, in a simple and easy to understand manner, some of the commonly used methods in budget forecasting, simple as well as advanced.
The book is divided into three parts: It begins with an overview of forecasting background, forecasting process, and forecasting methods, followed by a detailed discussion of the actual methods in Parts I, II, and III. Part I discusses a combination of basic time series models such as percentage average, simple moving average, double moving average, exponential moving average, double as well as triple, simple trend line, time-series with cyclical variation, and time-series regression, with single and multiple independent variables. Part II discusses some of the more advanced, but frequently used time series models, such as ARIMA, regular as well as seasonal, Vector Autoregression (VAR), and Vector Error Correction (VEC). Part III provides an overview of three of the more recent advances in time series models, namely ensemble forecasting, state-space forecasting, and neural network. The book concludes with a brief discussion of some practical issues in budget forecasting.
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About the Author
Aman Khan is Professor of Political Science and Public Administration at Texas Tech University.
Kenneth A. Kriz is University Distinguished Professor of Public Administration at the University of Illinois at Springfield.
"About this title" may belong to another edition of this title.
- PublisherLexington Books
- Publication date2022
- ISBN 10 1793613109
- ISBN 13 9781793613103
- BindingHardcover
- LanguageEnglish
- Number of pages268
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Forecasting Government Budgets (Hardcover)
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Bloomsbury Publishing Plc, Lanham, MD, 2022
ISBN 10: 1793613109
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Hardcover. Condition: new. Hardcover. A budget is the nerve center of a government and forecasting is integral to budgeting. For a government to be able to carry out its everyday operations in a planned and organized manner, it has to have a sound knowledge of future revenues and expenditures, i.e., its budget. Forecasting provides that knowledge by producing estimates of revenues and expenditures, based on past and current information, to indicate whether the government will have sufficient revenue to effectively carry out its routine and non-routine operations. This notion of forecasting is more appropriate at the sub-national level, where the state and local governments are required by law to balance their budget, especially the operating budget. And without good and reliable forecasts, it will be difficult to determine the measures that will be necessary to balance the budget or ensure conformity between revenues and expenditures. Written in a simple and easy to understand manner, the book presents a number of well-established methods, simple as well as advanced, including some recent developments in budget forecasting. Although written primarily for graduate students in public administration and government practitioners, students from other disciplines will also find it useful. Written in a simple and easy to understand manner, Forecasting Government Budgets presents some of the frequently used methods, simple as well as advanced, in budget forecasting. Although written primarily for graduate students in public administration and management, students from other disciplines will also find it useful. Shipping may be from multiple locations in the US or from the UK, depending on stock availability. Seller Inventory # 9781793613103
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