Synopsis
We live in an environment fraught with risk and operate our businesses in a risky world, as higher rewards only come with risks. It is unimaginable if the element of risk is not considered when corporate strategy is framed and when tactical projects are implemented. Modeling Risk provides a novel view of evaluating business decisions, projects, and strategies by taking into consideration a unified strategic portfolio analytical process. The book provides a qualitative and quantitative description of risk, as well as introductions to the Integrated Risk Management methods used in identifying, quantifying, applying, predicting, valuing, hedging, diversifying, and managing risk, through rigorous examples of the methods applicability in the decision-making process.
Pragmatic applications are emphasized in order to demystify the many elements inherent in risk analysis. A black box will remain a black box if no one can understand the concepts despite its power and applicability. It is only when the black box becomes transparent so that analysts can understand, apply, and convince others of its results, value-add, and applicability, that the approach will receive wide-spread influence. This is done through step-by-step applications of risk analysis as well as presenting multiple business cases, and discussing real-life applications.
This book is targeted at both the uninitiated professional as well as those well-versed in risk analysis there is something for everyone. It is also applicable for use as a second-year M.B.A. level or introductory Ph.D. textbook.
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About the Author
DR. JOHNATHAN MUN is Vice President of Analytical Services at Decisioneering, Inc., the makers of Crystal Ball(R) analytical software. His duties focus primarily on heading up the development of real options and financial analytics software powered by Crystal Ball(R). Prior to joining Decisioneering, he was a consulting manager and financial economist in the Valuation Services and Global Financial Services practice of KPMG Consulting, and a Manager with the Economic Consulting Services practice at KPMG LLP. During his tenure at KPMG Consulting and at Decisioneering, he has taught, advised, consulted, and applied real options analysis at multiple firms including Unilever, BP, Credit Suisse, Motorola, Intel, and El Paso Electric. He is also currently a visiting professor in finance, economics, and statistics at various universities, including University of Applied Sciences (Germany), Swiss School of Management (Switzerland), and Golden Gate University (California). Mun is the author of Real Options Analysis, also published by Wiley. He continues to offer worldwide seminars and lectures on the topics of real options, simulation and risk analysis, and corporate finance.
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Modeling Risk (Third Edition)
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